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51. 8 Key findings regarding the Korea nuclear arms crisis from recent discussions with experts in China, Russia and Korea

Author:
Charles Knight
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
Most interlocutors thought that there is almost no chance that the presently stringent sanctions can force the DPRK to agree to disarm. The Chinese and the Russians generally believe that the maximal concession that sanctions can win from the DPRK is an agreement to freeze their warhead and missile development — particularly inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) development — in return for some combination of confidence-building measures, security guarantees, and progress toward political normalization. The North Koreans will not give up the nuclear weapons they already have… at least not until there is a permanent peace on the peninsula and the US is no longer understood to be an enemy.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, and Disarmament
Political Geography:
Russia, China, North Korea, and United States of America

52. The Inter-Korean Summit Declaration of April 27, 2018: a review in detail

Author:
Charles Knight
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Project on Defense Alternatives
Abstract:
The April 27, 2018 Inter-Korean Summit was a visibly cordial, even happy, event. At its conclusion, North and South Korea released a “Declaration of Peace, Prosperity and Unification.” This paper reviews a selection of key sections and phrases in “The Declaration” with attention to understanding their implications for the goal declared by both parties of ending “division and confrontation” on the peninsula and for addressing the overhanging issue of denuclearization. Notably, both parties strongly assert their rights as Koreans to take leadership in this task before them. Among the issues this review examines are the implications of various provisions in The Declaration for two great powers with long-standing interests in and influence on the Korean peninsula: China and the United States.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Nuclear Power, and Disarmament
Political Geography:
Russia, China, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America

53. Cyber-Threats to Strategic Networks: Challenges for Pakistan’s Security

Author:
Rizwan Naseer and Musarat Amin
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Nuclear weapons revolutionized security affairs after Hiroshima and Nagasaki annihilation. States went nuclear eventually after the United States, Russia, UK, France and China but India and Pakistan joined that exclusive club too in 1974 and 1998 respectively. Nuclear weapons a source of security motivated Israel, Iran and North Korea too. Another development that started undermining nuclear security itself was cyber warfare. Pakistan being developing country in the list of Global Innovation Index finds it hard to catch up with other leading nations in science and technology. Leading countries including US, Russia, China, UK, Germany, France etc are not safe from cyber-threats they face then how Pakistan can be considered safe against cybersabotaging to its strategic weapons. Pakistan‟s nuclear security though has gained better levels but cyber security is the field that requires comprehensive strategy to establish cyber nuclear doctrine. China being reliable strategic partner can be a resourceful partner unlike other great powers. This strategy would add much security to Pakistan‟s already existing nuclear security and would open new avenues of cooperation with international organizations to gain next milestone of Nuclear Suppliers‟ Group membership.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Nuclear Power, Cybersecurity, Internet, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Punjab

54. Security Dilemma in South Asian Context

Author:
Ghulam Qumber, Waseem Ishaque, and Saqib Riaz
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The paper through the lens of Security Dilemma, implores the international institutions in general and USA in concert with China in particular, to take the driving seat to forestall any eventuality of a nuclear catastrophe to take place in South Asian security architecture. The world is reminded that the Indian ploy of resorting to „Bilateralism‟, has neither borne any dividends in the past 70 years in thwarting the Security Dilemma, nor is likely to resolve any thing at their own any time soon, before it is too late.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Power Politics, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Pakistan, China, South Asia, and Punjab

55. Prospects of Internationalizing Nuclear Security: An Appraisal

Author:
Ahmed Minhas, Farhat Konain Shujahi, and Ghulam Qumber
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Nuclear security has always been a sensitive area for international cooperation and even for sharing the best practices. States have been guarding the information about their nuclear security measures. With the introduction of terrorism phenomenon after 9/11 incident, the international community has been conscious about possibility of an act of nuclear or radiological terrorism. The US President Barack Obama undertook the task of securing the world from this new kind of terrorism and initiated process of Nuclear Security Summits (NSS)from 2010-2016 in which 53 heads of states were invited. It was the highest forum at which nuclear security was discussed; although, cautiously. NSS entrusted IAEA with the lead role in nuclear security at parallel with the nuclear safety. How the IAEA stands up to its added responsibilities in the post NSS process has to be seen in times to come. Pakistan has also come a long way in perfecting its nuclear security measures especially under the challenging scenario of Global War on Terror (GWOT) being contested within and around Pakistan’s geographical borders. Despite the challenging security environments, Pakistan’s nuclear security measures remained steadfast and not a single terrorist act happened. An appraisal of Pakistani nuclear security approach would be useful for nuclear technology aspirant states as a model of nuclear security best practices.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab

56. Going nowhere alone: US sanctions on Iran and the afterlife of the JCPOA

Author:
Fridtjof Falk
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
On November 5th, 2018, the Trump administration re-imposed severe sanctions on Iran. These sanctions, which President Obama called the “toughest sanctions ever faced by the Iranian government,” were lifted by the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), also known as the Iran Deal. The JCPOA was signed with a view to blocking Iran’s alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons, allowing international inspectors into Iran in return for sanctions relief. Withdrawing the United States (US) from the deal was a prominent promise of Donald Trump leading up to the presidential elections of 2016. In a May 2018 speech that described the deal as rooted in “fiction,” President Trump made good on his promise to leave the JCPOA and to move to unilaterally re-impose sanctions on Iran.
Topic:
International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, Nuclear Power, and Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

57. Setting the Stage for Progress Towards Nuclear Disarmament

Author:
Tytti Erasto, Sibylle Bauer, Shannon N. Kile, and Peter Topychkanov
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
Recognizing that the current international context is hardly conducive to arms control and disarmament, SIPRI working paper ‘Setting the stage for progress towards nuclear disarmament’ identifies 10 practical steps to revitalize the 1968 Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as the principal normative and legal foundation of the global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation regime. At the same time, it recognizes the NPT’s inherent compatibility with other disarmament initiatives, most notably the 2017 Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. In addition to restoring a sense of common purpose and addressing ‘old’ nuclear weapon-related risks, the paper highlights ‘new’ risks arising from developments in conventional capabilities and emerging technologies. The overarching objective is to set the stage for future concrete steps and initiatives to reduce the role of nuclear weapons and to eventually eliminate them.
Topic:
Peace Studies and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus

58. Intelligence and Policy Community Cooperation in the Libya WMD Disarmament Case

Author:
William H. Tobey
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
As the Trump Administration prepares to negotiate with North Korea, a question has arisen as to what model Washington should follow. National Security Advisor John Bolton has suggested that the Libyan nuclear case represents the best example to emulate. Given the violence Libya suffered after it disarmed, this recommendation provoked criticism, not only from the North Korean government, but a number of American analysts. Anticipating the importance of this case, NPEC commissioned William Tobey, former Deputy Administrator for Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation at the National Nuclear Security Administration, to write a primary history. Mr. Tobey served on the National Security Council in the Bush (43) Administration when the Libyan nuclear case was being worked.
Topic:
Intelligence, International Affairs, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Libya

59. Avoiding a Nuclear Wild, Wild West in the Middle East

Author:
Henry Sokolski (ed)
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nonproliferation Policy Education Center
Abstract:
With the Trump Administration’s announcement last fall that it intended to negotiate a civil nuclear cooperative agreement with Saudi Arabia, a debate has ensued over how restrictive any such agreement should be over the enrichment of uranium and the reprocessing of plutonium. These nuclear activities can bring a country within weeks of making its first batch of bombs. This announcement immediately raised the question, how much economic sense it made for Saudi Arabia to invest in nuclear power. It also raised a number of security questions. Should the United States allow Riyadh to reprocess and enrich even though these activities could bring Saudi Arabia within weeks of acquiring nuclear weapons? If Washington acceded to this demand by Riyadh, what would be the implications for the terms of nuclear cooperation with the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey, and Morocco? How would such an agreement impact efforts to tighten the terms of our nuclear understanding with Iran? Would such a permissive deal with Riyadh make it more difficult to say no to Seoul’s demand that we allow them to enrich uranium? All of these questions and more are discussed in this volume’s four sections
Topic:
International Affairs and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
Middle East

60. The Benefit of Exposing the Iranian Nuclear Archive

Author:
Shmuel Even
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Israel’s exposure of the Iranian nuclear archive was an impressive and professional operation. It was meant to help prepare public opinion for President Trump’s statement and to make it more difficult for the other leaders who are party to the agreement and who are in no hurry to enter into a confrontation with Iran. In light of the importance of the great threat that Iran poses to Israel, the exposure operation was a vital step in a long struggle. The alternative of not exposing the material would have meant giving up the chance of using the information to create cognitive value and leaving it in the archives of the intelligence community.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Middle East, and North America