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31. Why Puerto Rico's Economy Matters for U.S. Security

Author:
Jose J. Villamil
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
Puerto Rico's economic situation circa 1950 was vastly different than today's. In the 1940s through the first half of the 60s, the island experienced a sustained boom, with annual growth rates on the order of 7 percent; the island was hailed as a model for developing countries. It instituted major reforms in government, economic and social programs, and the health sector. Puerto Rico, in coordination with the U.S. federal government, hosted thousands of observers from around the world who came to Puerto Rico to learn about its successful development model.
Topic:
Crime, Economics, Narcotics Trafficking, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

32. Left in the Cold? The ELN and Colombia's Peace Talks

Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Whether the National Liberation Army (ELN) joins the current peace process is one of the biggest uncertainties around Colombia's historic opportunity to end decades of deadly conflict. Exploratory contacts continue, and pressure to advance decisively is growing, as the Havana negotiations with the larger Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) approach a decisive point. However, hopes fresh negotiations with the second insurgency were imminent were repeatedly dashed in 2013. Agreeing on an agenda and procedures that satisfy the ELN and are consistent with the Havana frame-work will not be easy. The ELN thinks the government needs to make an overture or risk ongoing conflict; the government believes the ELN must show flexibility or risk being left out. But delay is in neither's long-term interest. A process from which the ELN is missing or to which it comes late would lack an essential element for the construction of sustainable peace. Both sides, therefore, should shift gears to open negotiations soonest, without waiting for a perfect alignment of stars in the long 2014 electoral season.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Treaties and Agreements, War on Drugs, Insurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Colombia and Latin America

33. Scarcity without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War

Author:
Juan Camilo Castillo, Daniel Mejia, and Pascual Restrepo
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Using the case of the cocaine trade in Mexico as a relevant and salient example, this paper shows that scarcity leads to violence in markets without third party enforcement. We construct a model in which supply shortages increase total revenue when demand is inelastic. If property rights over revenues are not well defined because of the lack of reliable third party enforcement, the incentives to prey on others and avoid predation by exercising violence increase with scarcity, thus increasing violence. We test our model and the proposed channel using data for the cocaine trade in Mexico. We found that exogenous supply shocks originated in changes in the amount of cocaine seized in Colombia (Mexico's main cocaine supplier) create scarcity and increase drug-related violence in Mexico.
Topic:
Crime, Economics, War on Drugs, Narcotics Trafficking, and Law Enforcement
Political Geography:
Colombia, Latin America, and Mexico

34. From Maize to Haze: Agricultural Shocks and the Growth of the Mexican Drug Sector

Author:
Oeindrila Dube, Omar Garcia-Ponce, and Kevin Thom
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
We examine how commodity price shocks experienced by rural producers affect the drug trade in Mexico. Our analysis exploits exogenous movements in the Mexican maize price stemming from weather conditions in U.S. maize-growing regions, as well as export flows of other major maize producers. Using data on over 2,200 municipios spanning 1990-2010, we show that lower prices differentially increased the cultivation of both marijuana and opium poppies in municipios more climatically suited to growing maize. This increase was accompanied by differentially lower rural wages, suggesting that households planted more drug crops in response to the decreased income generating potential of maize farming.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Poverty, War on Drugs, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Latin America and Mexico

35. Scarcity without Leviathan: The Violent Effects of Cocaine Supply Shortages in the Mexican Drug War

Author:
Juan Camilo Castillo, Daniel Mejia, and Pascual Restrepo
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Using the case of the cocaine trade in Mexico as a relevant and salient example, this paper shows that scarcity leads to violence in markets without third party enforcement. We construct a model in which supply shortages increase total revenue when demand is inelastic. If property rights over revenues are not well defined because of the lack of reliable third party enforcement, the incentives to prey on others and avoid predation by exercising violence increase with scarcity, thus increasing violence. We test our model and the proposed channel using data for the cocaine trade in Mexico. We found that exogenous supply shocks originated in changes in the amount of cocaine seized in Colombia (Mexico's main cocaine supplier) create scarcity and increase drug-related violence in Mexico.
Topic:
Crime, War on Drugs, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Colombia and Mexico

36. Will elections in El Salvador create a narcostate?

Author:
Roger F. Noriega
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
El Salvador will choose a new president in a runoff election on March 9. The nation's decision may prove critical to Salvadoran democracy and regional security, in light of substantial evidence linking the ruling party candidate to narcotraffickers, terrorist groups, and violent street gangs. Moreover, foreign interference in the form of billions of dollars in Venezuelan oil revenues has given the ruling party an advantage, despite the fact that its economic policies have increased poverty and stunted economic growth.
Topic:
Corruption, Crime, Democratization, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Latin America

37. Licensing Afghan Opium for Medicinal Use: Why It Won't Work

Author:
David Mansfield and William A. Byrd
Publication Date:
09-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
With large increases in Afghan opium cultivation and production in 2013 and 2014, there is a risk that resulting frustration may give rise to a search for extreme but unproductive solutions. There are no easy solutions to the illegal narcotics problem. The proposal that Afghanistan could shift to licensed production of opium for pain medications will not work. Due to severe problems with governance, rule of law and security, opium licensing in Afghanistan would be subject to extremely high leakages. Afghanistan's comparative advantage in supplying the illicit market means that it would likely expand cultivation to meet demand in both markets. Afghanistan is a high-cost producer of opium, and prices for licensed opium are much lower than on the illegal market, so profits might well be marginal or even negative. Existing producers of licensed opiates— Australia, Turkey, India, France and others—would strongly oppose any move to let Afghanistan become a competitor on the licensed market. Even if a more liberalized market for opiates is envisioned, technological advances and modern techniques in other countries mean that Afghanistan could not be a competitive producer.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Turkey, India, France, and Australia

38. The UN Security Council and Organized Criminal Activity: Experiments in International Law Enforcement

Author:
James Cockayne
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
On 30 November 1943, Franklin Roosevelt was in Teheran, celebrating Winston Churchill's sixty-ninth birthday with Josef Stalin. FDR gave Churchill a Persian vase, and as discussion turned to the post-war order he passed an aide a pencil sketch of what was to become the United Nations.
Topic:
Crime, International Cooperation, International Law, Narcotics Trafficking, Sex Trafficking, Law Enforcement, and Piracy

39. Fear and Loathing in Mexico Narco-Alliances and Proxy Wars

Author:
Irina Chindea
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Fletcher Security Review
Institution:
The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:
In December 2012, Enrique Peña Nieto took the helm of Mexico’s Presidency after running on an electoral agenda in which he distanced himself from the Calderón Administration’s (2006-2012) security policies against organized crime. These policies have received substantive criticism over the past years for leading to a direct increase in violence in the country. The total number of homicides for the Calderón Presidency doubled, reaching approximately 120,000, over those recorded during the previous administration of Vicente Fox Quesada (2001-2006). The number of organized crime style executions – over 60,000 – associated with Felipe Calderón’s war on drugs significantly surpassed the threshold of 1,000 battle-related deaths within a twelve months period – the definition of war according to the Correlates of War Project. The levels of violence in this internal conflict have been comparable to those in war zones such as Iraq and Afghanistan. Additionally, Calderón’s war against the drug cartels had another unintended effect. It transformed Mexico into the most dangerous country for journalists in the Western Hemisphere – and the eighth worldwide – with 67 journalists murdered and 14 disappeared since 2006. Last but not least, for three consecutive years (2008, 2009, and 2010) Ciudad Juarez, the second largest metropolitan area on the border with the U.S., registered the highest rate of homicides worldwide, earning the nickname “Murder City.” ​ Today, more than one year into the new Peña Nieto Presidency, violence in Mexico has not significantly subsided, and the country has witnessed an increase in kidnappings, forced disappearances, and extortion. Despite the promises made on the campaign trail, the 18-month old Peña Nieto Administration still has not been able to carry out the security measures that it intended, such as creation of a new security force under the guise of a national gendarmerie. On the contrary, its security policies have de facto remained the same as those of the previous administration. Equally, they have contributed to the festering of the narco-violence problem that the country has been facing over the past seven years, and that has resulted in the rise of the self-defense forces across the country, particularly in rural areas and the state of Michoacán.
Topic:
Narcotics Trafficking, Non State Actors, Violence, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
North America and Mexico

40. Changing Financial Flows During Afghanistan's Transition: The Political Economy Fallout

Author:
William A. Byrd
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Massive amounts of money flowing into Afghanistan since 2001 (foreign military spending, aid, domestic revenues, opium profits, land takeovers and development, informal mineral exploitation, theft of funds such as at Kabul Bank) have had profound political economy impacts, not least by further entrenching factionalized politics and fragmented patronage networks. The ongoing transition involving the drawdown of international troops and Afghan takeover of security responsibilities will be accompanied by drastic declines in international military expenditures and aid. Total resources for patronage will fall sharply; the Afghan government's share in remaining funds will increase; declines will be greatest at local levels, especially in insecure areas in the south/east which had heavy international military presence and high aid; and drug money will become increasingly important. At lower levels of patronage, competition over declining resources may intensify, so even in the absence of major armed conflict at the national level, localized conflicts may continue and even proliferate, aggravated by taking revenge and “settling accounts” by currently excluded and marginalized groups.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Development, Economics, Islam, Foreign Aid, Narcotics Trafficking, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Central Asia