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761. Europe—Defence Cooperation

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
12-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
European defence cooperation will be a key issue at this week's European Council (EC) summit. It looks likely that ministers will agree that Europe should move towards an autonomous military capability independent of NATO. However, significant problems remain before these plans can be realised in operational terms.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, and NATO
Political Geography:
Europe

762. Serbia—Opposition Division

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Daily demonstrations calling for Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic to resign have, over recent weeks, been poorly attended. In part this reflects the opposition parties' failure to resolve their differences. This has led to growing scepticism in the West about the Serbian people's ability to bring about political change. In these circumstances, the international community may alter its policy towards the country. However, greater efforts to support the democratic opposition could prove counter-productive in the short-to-medium term due to anti-Western sentiment in the aftermath of the NATO air campaign. In the longer term the West will need to reconsider its policy towards the Balkans if it wants to play a constructive role in regional democratisation.
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
Mongolia, Eastern Europe, Serbia, and Balkans

763. Kosovo—New Dawn for an Ethical Foreign Policy?

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The success of NATO in forcing the Serbian army to quit Kosovo has led some western leaders, notably the UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, to espouse a new 'moral' emphasis in foreign policy. While a complete abandonment of self–interest for ethics can be dismissed, there are important new factors affecting the conduct of international affairs, which vary in regional applicability.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

764. Building an Asia-Pacific Security Community: The Role of Nuclear Weapons

Author:
C. Richard Nelson, James E. Goodby, Tomohisha Sakanaka, W. Neal Anderson, Tomohide Murai, and Shinichi Ogawa
Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The main challenge for Asia is to build a security community that transforms a legacy of military competition into security cooperation. This transformation will be difficult because of the high level of distrust among the states and considerable uncertainty about future relations. Asia lacks the kinds of developed, institutionalized multilateral security arrangements that contribute to transparency, confidence-building and long-term stability. Furthermore, a “ business as usual ” approach that focuses on managing bilateral relationships is unlikely to result in a security community. More attention needs to be devoted to multilateral security efforts. Without the reassurance of a network of cooperative arrangements, including verifiable arms limitations, potential adversaries may place their hopes in achieving unilateral military advantages. Such efforts could foster fears of regional domination and, in turn, a potential arms race that includes nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles.
Topic:
Security and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

765. A Cross-Regional Analysis of Civil Society and Democratic Development

Author:
Andrew Green
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
Abstract:
Domestic instability often has a deleterious effect at the international level, too, particularly as more states adopt democratic institutions and market-oriented economies. Whether we are talking about failing multi-ethnic states and their impact on the UN and NATO, or about failing economies and their impact on international markets and such international organizations as the IMF and the World Bank, it is clear that the domestic and international levels cannot be separated. While instability may arise from many different sources, the state-society connection is perhaps the most problematic: a democracy in which the only link between citizens and politicians is the electoral connection is a democracy impoverished by stagnant ideas and limited societal input. A state disconnected from society is prone to domestic instability, with negative effects at both the domestic and international levels.
Topic:
NATO, Civil Society, Democratization, Economics, Ethnic Conflict, International Political Economy, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United Nations

766. Ideas on Bosnia for the Bush Administration

Author:
Mark Edmond Clark
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
Bosnia has been an international challenge that after five years may appear intractable. However, it too has a handle. In the new Bush Administration, policymakers and analysts must recognize that Bosnia is not a Western state, and that the country's bewildering social, economic, and political structures cannot be understood by viewing them through a Western prism. Only after these are examined and delineated can the new Administration get the business of rebuilding Bosnia underway guided by a policy more suited for its society and more coherent than that of the previous Administration.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe and Bosnia

767. Interview with Mark Edmond Clark

Author:
Sean Costigan and Mark Edmond Clark
Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
What are the short-term effects of the bombing campaign? While I was in Belgrade and Pristina in the beginning of March, the officials of the Yugoslav and Serbian Governments, with whom I spoke, made it clear that once the bombing campaign began, they would initiate a full blown counter-terrorist campaign in Kosovo. Efforts of the Yugoslav Army and Ministry of Interior forces would be directed against the KLA and its infrastructure. The campaign would be focused on the area that was part of the KLA's "Strategic Trapezoid" in the center of Kosovo, which the KLA had declared to be their area of strongest influence. They also informed me that they would strike at KLA positions in Albania and possibly Macedonia. This is precisely what those forces have been doing.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, NATO, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe

768. Transforming Serbia: the Key to Long Term Stability

Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The NATO intervention in Serbia and the indictment of Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic by the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia have created openings within Serbian society and exposed cleavages within the regime that should be rapidly exploited to hasten Milosevic's departure and bring about genuine political change. The loss of Kosovo, the destruction resulting from the bombing, and the refusal of the international community to rebuild Serbia until Milosevic is out of power have occasioned widespread despair among Serbs who have come to view their country's future under its present leadership as a dead end.
Topic:
NATO, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Yugoslavia, and Serbia

769. Milosevic's Aims in War and Diplomacy

Publication Date:
05-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The limits of the West's resolve to enforce a solution to the crisis in the Balkans were freshly exposed last week at a press briefing by U.S. President Bill Clinton. Speaking to reporters on 6 May 1999, Clinton admitted that Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic might well survive the current crisis and remain in power in Belgrade as long as he accepted the West's terms for a settlement in Kosovo and permitted refugees to return home. He also made clear that a NATO invasion of Yugoslavia from the north, the one option open to the West that would facilitate the forcible removal of the Milosevic regime and with it the greatest single source of instability in the Balkans, was something "our (NATO's) goals never entailed".
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, Diplomacy, Human Rights, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia

770. War in The Balkans: Consequences of the Kosovo Conflict and Future Options for Kosovo and the Region

Publication Date:
04-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
NATO's strategy in the war with Yugoslavia over Kosovo isn't working. As the Alliance's bombing campaign enters its fourth week, it is Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic who is still winning the political game.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Politics, and War
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Yugoslavia