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161. Migration Drivers in Carbon-intensive Regions in the EU

Author:
Stefan Jestl and Roman Römisch
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The paper analyses drivers of migration in carbon-intensive and non-carbon-intensive regions in the EU. Using a mix of econometric methods, such as spatial panel and spatial cross-sectional methods, as well as geographically weighted regressions on data for EU NUTS-2 and NUTS-3 regions, the results indicate that particularly carbon-intensive regions in Central and Eastern Europe are not only challenged by a potential decline in carbon-intensive employment but also by outward migration flows that could diminish their prospects for longer-term economic prosperity. From a policy point of view, the results indicate that policies focusing on the replacement of the lost jobs in carbon-intensive industries might not be enough for the carbon-intensive regions in Central and Eastern Europe. Instead, these regions need a simultaneous package of additional policies to improve their attractiveness.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Carbon Emissions, Green Transition, Regional Development, and Regional Migration
Political Geography:
Europe

162. Cooperation on Readmission in the Euro-Mediterranean Area and Beyond: Lessons Learned and Unlearned

Author:
Jean-Pierre Cassarino, Lorenzo Gabrielli, and Delphine Perrin
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
This joint policy study examines the European Union’s (EU) readmission system in the context of the Euro-Mediterranean and Euro-African regions and its impact on interstate cooperation, human rights observance, and migrants’ conditions. The authors suggest rethinking how these issues are tackled by emphasising that asymmetrical patterns of cooperation on readmission result not only from unequal costs and benefits but also from meaningful relations between state actors. The study discusses how cooperation on readmission between EU and non-EU countries in the Mediterranean and Africa has altered patterns of interdependence and interactions beyond migration governance. It explores how informalisation has been presented as a solution to uncertainties, with some non-EU countries expressing their own reverse conditionalities and reveals the limits of international cooperation on readmission. The study analyses the case of Morocco, which has become a crucial player in controlling migration between Europe and Africa, and how it has skilfully leveraged its cooperation with the EU to achieve its own goals. It advocates for a more balanced approach to migration management that takes into account human rights and the need for formal migration pathways. It looks into the negative effects of intra-African expulsions on migrants’ human rights and the safety of people on the move and discusses how the physical obstacles to mobility have resulted in violence and social instability, which has led to less safe, orderly, and regular migration within Africa.
Topic:
Human Rights, Migration, Regional Cooperation, Governance, and European Union
Political Geography:
North Africa, Morocco, and Mediterranean

163. Road to nowhere: Why Europe’s border externalisation is a dead end

Author:
Lorena Stella Martini and Tarek Megerisi
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
Mediterranean migration has been a crisis issue in Europe for decades. The central Mediterranean route that carries migrants from Libya and Tunisia to Italy and Malta has become the most active crossing. It is also the most dangerous way for migrants to reach Europe’s shores. European migration policy frames migration as a security threat and focuses on externalising European borders to southern Mediterranean states, especially since the migration crisis of 2015. This approach colours the EU’s and member states’ relations with their southern neighbourhood. It also impedes their pursuit of strategic interests in the region and diminishes the EU’s reputation as a values-based power. Border externalisation has failed to prevent a new surge in irregular migration on the central Mediterranean route since 2020. In fact, European externalisation policies likely contributed to this new crisis. Europeans need to stop handing control of their borders to warlords and autocrats in Libya and Tunisia. Instead, they should focus on measures that tie the short-term imperative to appear in control of migration to longer-term initiatives that lessen the need for people to migrate in the first place.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Refugees, Borders, and Externalization
Political Geography:
Europe

164. Looking into Eurasia - A review of 2022

Author:
Anne De Tinguy
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stak. This volume is devoted to the war in Ukraine
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Organization, Migration, History, Diaspora, Natural Resources, Sociology, European Union, Economy, Political Science, Borders, and Identity
Political Geography:
Eurasia

165. Visa Policy and International Student Migration: Evidence from the Student Partners Program in Canada

Author:
Jérôme Gonnot and Mauro Lanati
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
This paper examines how visa policy affects international student migration. Using administrative data on community colleges in Canada, we evaluate a reform that introduced a new visa stream - the Student Partners Program (SPP) - with shorter processing times and higher approval rates for student visa applicants able to demonstrate that they have the financial resources and language skills to succeed academically. Using a triple difference estimator, we find that SPP increased student migration from treated countries by 33% relative to what would have occurred without the reform. In line with our theoretical model, we further show that SPP had a large and positive effect on international enrollment only in countries where migration fraud was a major concern, and that higher enrollment was driven by an increase in both the approval rate and the volume of applications to study at treated institutions. We also leverage the SPP reform to investigate potential crowding-out effects. While we find no evidence that the enrollment of international students took place at the expense of domestic students, our results indicate that the recruitment of students from countries eligible to SPP had a crowding-in effect on noneligible foreign students.
Topic:
Migration, Students, Visa, Study Abroad, and Information
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

166. Understanding Differences in Attitudes to Immigration: A Meta-Analysis of Individuallevel Factors

Author:
Lenka Drazanova, Jérôme Gonnot, Tobias Heidland, and Finja Kruger
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
Public attitudes toward immigration have attracted much scholarly interest and extensive empirical research in recent years. Despite a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature, no firm conclusions have been drawn regarding the factors affecting immigration opinion. We address this gap through a formal meta-analysis derived from the literature regarding immigration attitudes from the top journals of several social science disciplines in the years 2009-2019 and based on a population of 1185 estimates derived from 144 unique analyses on individual-level factors affecting attitudes to immigration. The meta-analytical findings show that two individual-level characteristics are most significantly associated with attitudes to immigration - education (positively) and age (negatively). Our results further reveal that the same individual characteristics do not necessarily explain immigration policy attitudes and attitudes towards immigrants' contribution. The findings challenge several conventional micro-level theories of attitudes to immigration. The meta-analysis can inform future research when planning the set of explanatory variables to avoid omitting key determinants.
Topic:
Migration, Immigration, and Public Opinion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

167. Navigating Migration Risks: The Role of Risk Perception and Information Engagement Among Moldovans

Author:
Ludmila Bogdan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
This study examines migration risk perception and information engagement by potential migrants from Moldova. Employing a qualitative interview approach (N = 30), it explores the behaviors, intentions, and perceptions that underpin how potential migrants understand labor migration risks. It establishes a robust connection between risk perception and the active pursuit of pertinent information. The study offers a matrix that illustrates the interplay between migration risk perception (high vs. low) and type of risk (individual vs. systemic). It finds that respondents in the High Risk — Systemic group refrain from seeking information, viewing all migration as inherently highly risky due to systemic factors beyond their control. The Low Risk — Systemic group believes migration carries relatively low risks, but that these risks are not individually manageable. The Low Risk — Individual group engages passively with safe migration information because of their perception of low risk. The High Risk — Individual group actively seeks information about safe migration, believing that they can overcome potential risks. In short, the study finds that potential migrants’ perception and understanding of risk shapes their engagement with safe migration information. The study also highlights gender disparities in risk perception and response. While women emphasize concerns tied to sexual exploitation and separation from family, men are more likely to fear fatal accidents and industry-specific exploitation. The study’s findings should inform the development of policy frameworks and migration information campaigns that reflect diverse perceptions and understandings of migration risk. Policy Recommendations: To mitigate migration risks and promote safer practices, policymakers at various levels, including the Moldovan government, international agencies (e.g., IOM, UNHCR, and ILO), non-governmental organizations (like LaStrada), and EU bodies, should: 1. Tailor public education and communication campaigns for diverse risk factors, using different messaging for varying risk perceptions. 2. Address gender-specific concerns with practical advice and resources. 3. Develop comprehensive risk awareness programs covering physical, emotional, and psychological challenges. 4. Use diverse channels (hotlines, online platforms, and workshops) to reach a broader audience. 5. Strengthen embassy services, ensuring staff are informed about migration risks, challenges, and effective outreach and education strategies. 6. Collaborate with mental health professionals to provide psychosocial support. 7. Engage returnee migrants as credible sources of information and advice. 8. Include migration topics in school curricula to enhance migration risk preparedness. By acknowledging risk perception and adapting information strategies accordingly, policymakers at international, regional, and local levels can create effective initiatives and communicating strategies for secure migration.
Topic:
Migration, Labor Issues, Risk, and Gender
Political Geography:
Moldova and Eastern Europe

168. Will DACA Recipients Return to Their Birth Countries If DACA Is Ended?

Author:
Robert Courtney Smith
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
Will recipients of Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) leave the United States if a legal challenge succeeds in ending this important program? The fate of over 600,000 current DACA recipients may depend on answers to this question in one expert report and one online survey question, which a Texas District Court found to show “a quantifiable percentage” would leave. Had the District Court in its DACA ruling not credited these sources, Texas’ lawsuit could have collapsed, and DACA would persist. The issue of whether DACA recipients will leave if DACA is ended will matter as this case is litigated, most likely to be decided by the Supreme Court. Drawing on research on immigrant return, DACA recipients, survey questions, priming, and intention-behavior gap, this paper argues that this expert report and the single online survey question used by the District Court cannot support the inferences regarding the return of DACA recipients to their birth countries. Rather, relevant research points toward DACA recipients staying in the United States, even if DACA were terminated. The paper recommends offering DACA recipients and long term undocumented residents a short path to legal status and citizenship, reassessing whether these two sources can support the conclusions drawn by the District Court; and analyzing the benefits accruing from DACA to Texas and all Texans, including US citizen children of DACA recipients, in assessing the claimed injury to the state.
Topic:
Migration, Supreme Court, Deportation, and DACA
Political Geography:
North America, Texas, and United States of America

169. An Analysis of Trends in the US Undocumented Population Since 2011 and Estimates of the Undocumented Population for 2021

Author:
Robert Warren
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
In 2021, the undocumented population residing in the United States (US) increased slightly to 10.3 million, compared to 10.2 million the previous year. The gradual decline or near-zero growth of this population has continued for more than a decade. However, the large increases in apprehensions at the southern border in recent years, along with continued legislative gridlock in Congress, could portend a new era of growth of this population. Unfortunately, the data needed to determine whether the population will enter a period of growth after 2021 — or whether the era of near-zero growth will continue — will not be available for at least a year or two. The most accurate demographic estimates of the undocumented population are derived from data collected in the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. Estimates of the size of the undocumented population in 2022 will not be available until early 2024. This report focuses on the most significant trend in the undocumented population in the past decade — the remarkable decline of 1.9 million in the undocumented population from Mexico from 2011 to 2021. The decline for Mexico in this period was 600,000 more than the total population increase from the seven countries (in order) with the fastest growing US undocumented populations: Guatemala, Honduras, India, Venezuela, El Salvador, Brazil, and China. This paper finds that: • The long-term decline, or near-zero growth, of the total undocumented population that began in 2008 continued in 2021. • The percent of undocumented residents in the total US population declined from 3.8 percent in 2011 to 3.1 percent in 2021. • The undocumented population from Mexico declined from 6.4 million in 2011 to 4.4 million in 2021, a drop of 1.9 million in 10 years. • A total of 2.9 million, or 47 percent, of the US undocumented population from Mexico in 2011 had left the undocumented population by 2021. • The drop in the undocumented population from Mexico from 2011 to 2021 occurred nationwide, and the decline affected the undocumented population in nearly every state. • The fastest growing undocumented populations by country in the last 10 years were from Guatemala, Honduras, India, El Salvador, Venezuela, and Brazil. The combined undocumented populations from these six countries grew by 1.2 million. • Countries that had declining populations after 2011 included Poland, Peru, Ecuador, Korea, and Philippines, in addition to the large drop for Mexico. • California had the largest decline in undocumented residents — 665,000 from 2011 to 2021. The undocumented population from Mexico living in California during this period declined by 720,000. • The combined undocumented population in California, New York, and Illinois fell by more than one million from 2021 to 2011.
Topic:
Migration, Data, Undocumented Population, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:
North America, Mexico, and United States of America

170. The Migration Risk Environment: Challenges to Human Security for Venezuelan Migrant and Refugee Women and Girls Pre- and Post-Migration to Colombia

Author:
Catalina Correa-Salazar, Kathleen Page, and Ana Martínez-Donate
Publication Date:
06-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
The Venezuelan crisis has unleashed multiple forms of sociopolitical violence against its population and created a context of unmet needs, insecurity, and human rights violations. Outward migration caused by this situation has been linked to health emergencies in neighboring countries. Venezuelan migrant and refugee women and girls (VMRWG) are among the most affected. We conducted a cross-sectional qualitative and Participatory Action Research (PAR) project to characterize the risk environments for VMRWG across migration phases, analyzing pre-departure, transit, border crossing, and resettlement risk factors for health and security through semi-structured interviews (n = 30) and human cartographies (n = 16). We found cross border risk and protective factors that inform cross-border health initiatives, migration policies, and human rights efforts for both the migrant and host communities. Findings and Recommendations • Migratory trajectories of VMRWG from Venezuela to Colombia represent a risk environment for women and girls, connecting cross-border contexts through armed actors’ control, culturally reinforced gender roles and limited social and economic resources. • Long-term sustainable migratory policies that are culturally sensitive and include a gender-approach to health should operationalize how gender roles are intimately connected to HIV risk and mental health disparities through reinforced structural factors. Such policies must address these structural factors. • The public health system needs to incorporate and align with programmatic efforts implemented by international platforms (United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), AID4AIDS, and Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) also known as Doctors Without Borders) targeting screening for infectious diseases (including HIV and mental health disparities) in border crossings and borderlands. Sustainable policies to bridge gaps between services and populations and to decrease growing HIV cases depends on these strategies. • Policies and programs of local governments (city and municipality level) addressing mental health disparities need to be expanded through peer leaders and civil society networks of care to guarantee wellbeing and quality of life after resettlement. • International efforts and collaborations should capitalize on the re-opening of the border to establish inter-sectoral collaborations with Venezuelan NGOs and civil society organizations on both sides of the border to address gender-based violence, follow-up of cases, and access to services in sending and receiving communities. • In order to broach gaps and tackle access barriers in resettlement communities in Colombia, services must be provided in peripheric territories and neighborhoods where some vulnerable migrants resettle. These services must rely on health sector-community collaborations. • Public health sector efforts should be integrated and coordinated with family and child services on a local and national level Instituto Colombiano de Bienestar Familiar (ICBF), gender working groups, shelters, and citywide supported initiatives like the House of Women) to provide and promote access to social resources (education, jobs, and housing) for migrant women. • Health promotion strategies are necessary to decrease infectious diseases and violence-related trauma among migrants across borders. These strategies can include outreach through peer leaders, civil society organization campaigns, and HIV mobile testing and counselling. These services should be delivered in a culturally sensitive manner, capitalizing on in-place cross-border networks of support. In Colombia, sustainable efforts in policy and programs have been made to provide Venezuelans with access to health care and social services with the help of inter-sectoral working groups, national laws, and border commissions. However, there is an urgent need to expand the humanitarian response and the health sector coverage to gender-based violence impacting infectious disease risk and mental health trauma in host communities. Connecting pre- and post-migration contexts in South-to-South migration is paramount. Tackling these issues can improve the protection of human rights and resettlement conditions in host communities.
Topic:
Migration, Women, Refugees, Violence, Humanitarian Crisis, Human Security, and Girls
Political Geography:
Colombia, South America, and Venezuela