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151. Forced Migration from Ukraine during the Russian-Ukrainian War: impact on the EU and Ukraine

Author:
Alla Atamanenko and Mariia Avhustiuk
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The full-scale invasion of Russia into Ukraine on February 24, 2022, which was accompanied by the violation of humanitarian law and the demolition of civilian infrastructure, has led to the emergence of forced migration. Millions of people left the country within a short period. On March 4, the EU Temporary Protection Directive was reactivated in response to the unprecedented flow of migrants from Ukraine. EU countries have opened their borders to migrants from Ukraine, providing them with shelter and assistance. Poland and its neighbouring states, such as Romania, Moldova, Hungary, as well as the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Germany, Austria, received the highest quantity of migrants. The wave of migration has had a noticeable influence on the functioning of labour markets and employment, even in those regions of Ukraine which have not been exposed to military activity. Comprehensive studies show that external migration, among other factors, will significantly affect the demographic situation in Ukraine due to the increase in the number of people who do not plan to return from abroad. A key factor in the crisis is the fact that the majority of these people is youth of employable age and children. Besides, educational migration from Ukraine to EU countries has also increased significantly. The influx of immigrants who have established themselves in the nations of the European Union have significantly impacted the labour markets of these countries, putting a considerable strain on the public funds of the host countries. The question of Ukrainian immigrants’ ability to engage in activities such as schooling (including access to educational opportunities for children), employment, residence, and healthcare in both the immediate and long-term future is coming to the fore. Ukrainian and international scholars alike have done numerous studies on external migration from Ukraine; nonetheless, the forced migration resulting from the full-scale military invasion of Ukraine has yet to be adequately examined. Subsequently, the article is intended to examine the displacement circumstances in Ukraine and the EU and to evaluate the consequence of compulsory external migration in Ukraine and the EU.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Refugees, Forced Migration, Migrants, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe

152. Migration and trust: Evidence on assimilation from internal migrants

Author:
Diego Marino Fages
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Nottingham Interdisciplinary Centre for Economic and Political Research (NICEP)
Abstract:
I study whether internal migrants assimilate culturally to the locals. Investigating this question with observational data has been challenging because it requires disentangling assimilation from sorting and because data on immigrants before migrating is typically not available. I overcome this challenge by studying the Swiss context, which provides an ideal setting for two reasons. First, as a result of its history, Switzerland presents substantial cultural differences between its regions. Second, the Swiss Household Panel tracks individuals for a long period before and after they move. I exploit these two features to compare early and late migrants in a difference-in-difference framework. I focus specifically on trust in strangers, one of the most important components of culture and which has been shown to predict growth and other desirable economic, social and political outcomes. I find a statistically and economically significant evidence on assimilation of migrants moving to higher and lower trust cantons, and this assimilation starts in the first few years. Finally, using the Sorted Effects Method, I find that assimilation is driven by the youngest immigrants, which is in line with the impressionable years hypothesis in psychology.
Topic:
Migration, Culture, Assimilation, and Internal Migration
Political Geography:
Europe and Switzerland

153. Morocco Country Report 2021-2022

Author:
Arab Barometer
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since the pandemic hit Morocco in March 2020, the country has been facing crises on multiple fronts, including the public health crisis, the economic crisis, inflation, and the historic drought. Internationally, Morocco made several diplomatic gains in the wake of the United States’ recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. In an historic reversal of its previous stance, Spain declared that the Moroccan autonomy plan is “the most serious, realistic and credible” solution to the crisis. Multiple other countries opened consulates in Western Sahara.1 2 Moroccans express a great deal of awareness towards these crises, and many recognize the impacts on their daily lives. Nonetheless, not all Moroccans view the current situation in the country through a similar lens. As opposed to the 2018 fifth wave of Arab Barometer surveys where Moroccans were often divided in their views by age, it appears that the effect of these recent events has been to divide Moroccans by socio-economic status to a greater extent. Often, wealthier and more educated Moroccans have a different outlook on the country than those whose income cannot cover their expenses and those with only a high school education or less. The former have a better outlook on Morocco. They express more economic safety and are less likely to be critical of the current situation in their country. The latter are a bit more skeptical, instead expressing more economic frustration and are more willing to criticize many aspects of life in the North African kingdom.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Public Opinion, Democracy, Economy, Discrimination, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

154. Kuwait Country Report 2022

Author:
Ghanim Alnajjar
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Barometer
Abstract:
Since 1962, Kuwait has been a relatively open country in terms of freedom of expression and political participation. Although political life in general has faced many challenges and interruptions, political culture is still present and influential. Notably, the Arab Barometer survey ended in June 2022, during a continuing political crisis in the Parliament, in deadlock with the government. The crisis manifested itself in the way several members of the Parliament boycotted the sessions, which led to a political deadlock of sorts. Since the latest elections held before the survey in 2020, the political crisis did witness a considerable escalation. This led, among other things, to a stagnated political process. Surprisingly, the Emir and Crown Prince gave an important speech on 22 June 2022, in which they both expressed their intention to call for early elections, and as such announced the dissolution of the Parliament. This procedure is not new since the Parliament was disbanded ten times out of 18 elections in the past. These reforms led to a general state of optimism in society, which positively impacted the election campaigns. The campaigns became less polarizing and less aggressive against the government. The Parliament was disbanded, and elections were held on 19 September 2022. Results brought new indicators that are worthy of highlighting, but which are outside the scope of the survey. It is likely that if the survey was delayed until after June, the results would have been different from the results that came in before the governmental reforms. It might be useful to conduct a second follow-up survey as soon as possible, even if it will be conducted through phone interviews, and be limited to certain questions only. In any case, the survey results are consistent with earlier surveys. There is a clear sense of dissatisfaction with the government, especially in relation to some specific policies, like public education policies and anti-corruption measures. It is notable also that the government’s policies towards Covid-19 were evaluated positively. Moreover, certain cultural elements and concerns, especially in relation to gender, have showed some important changes worthy of more studies. The same applies to the economic situation. In spite of the generally negative economic circumstances, the overall trend towards the economy shows noticeable optimism. The survey also focused on questions related to the workforce and employment, being largely concentrated in the public sector, with less employed in the private sector. The survey shows the intensive use of social media platforms in the country.
Topic:
International Relations, Corruption, Education, Environment, Gender Issues, Migration, Politics, Governance, Media, Economy, Institutions, COVID-19, Labor Market, Freedom, and Political System
Political Geography:
Middle East, Kuwait, and Gulf Nations

155. Three frontlines in Africa's resource conflicts

Author:
Peter Albrecht and Marie Ladekjær Gravesen
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Conflicts over land and resources are nothing new on the African continent. However, as global attention has turned towards environmental issues – as well as Africa’s rich renewable energy sources and precious minerals – the nature of these conflicts has changed. Research shows three frontlines that investors, humanitarian actors, and policymakers need to be aware of as they invest or engage in green initiatives in Africa.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Development, Migration, Water, Food, Non State Actors, Governance, Inequality, and Land Rights
Political Geography:
Africa

156. Europe’s Multiple Futures: Four Futurescapes for Europe’s Geopolitical Positioning in 2030

Author:
Tim Bosch, Paloma Muñoz Quick, Elisabeth Suh, Dominik Tolksdorf, and Georgios Kolliarakis
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)
Abstract:
This report provides distinct storylines envisioning Europe's potential futures up to 2030. Contrary to traditional binary evaluations, these four scenarios avoid direct labeling as "good" or "bad." They delve into crucial drivers, from labor market integration to global affairs such as Russia-Ukraine conflict and Europe-China relations. Addressing the urgent need for "futures literacy" among policymakers and experts, this initiative by DGAP experts offers interpretative frameworks for upcoming challenges. Rather than predicting specifics, the scenarios prompt reconsideration of narratives and introduce counter-intuitive thinking modes for addressing global shifts and foreign policy challenges.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, Future, and Geoeconomics
Political Geography:
Europe

157. Urban Politics in the Middle East

Author:
Mona Harb, Marc Lynch, Jillian Schwedler, Gehad Abaza, and Munqeth Othman
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Urban politics has received growing attention in the anthropology, sociology, and political science of the MENA region. In line with global trends, questions of scale, territory, flows and connectivities and materialities have come to the fore, with a wide range of creative and novel lines of inquiry connecting the global to the hyper-local and every scale in between. In February 2023, POMEPS partnered with the Beirut Urban Lab at the American University of Beirut and The Policy Initiative think tank for a workshop in Beirut to bring together an interdisciplinary group of young scholars from across the region to explore questions of urban life, politics, and culture. The papers moved beyond more traditional political science topics such as municipal government, decentralization, clientelistic voting, protests, and clientelism. While those themes certainly operated in the background, the authors assembled in Beirut pushed to shift the lens towards multi-scalar ethnographic modes of inquiry, highlighting the materialities and relationalities of the hyper-local, examining sites and places which concentrate power dynamics.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, Race, Religion, Sectarianism, Culture, Syrian War, Mobility, Urban, Trade, Music, Transportation, Cities, Heritage, Resistance, Labor Market, Domestic Work, and Urbicide
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Tehran, Baghdad, Algeria, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Beirut, Cairo, Tunis, and Aqaba

158. The Labour Market Entry and Integration of Refugees and Other Migrants in Austria

Author:
Stefan Jestl and Maryna Tverdostup
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the labour market entry of refugees and other (non-humanitarian) migrants originating from middle- and low-income non-European countries that arrived in Austria in 2014-2016. Specifically, we analyse factors that shaped the transition to and out of the first job in the Austrian labour market, document the characteristics of the first job and explore job stability in Austria. Even though refugees took longer to find a job, individual and household characteristics, as well as labour market indicators, are associated with the time between arrival and the first job in Austria, similar to other migrants. Refugees and other migrants also found similar job types as their entry jobs, which tended to be located in low-wage segments. The results, however, suggest that other migrants held their first job, on average, for a longer time than refugees. Although other migrants quit their first job relatively quickly when it was marginal employment, refugees tended to hold marginal jobs as long as full-time and part-time jobs. Finally, our results suggest that entry jobs with a higher quality in terms of working hours and wages (i.e. full-time jobs) tended to be linked with job stability, while entry jobs with a lower quality (i.e. marginal jobs) tended to be associated with job instability for both refugees and other migrants. The results of the paper showcase the importance of immediate access to various training and re-education programs for refugees to improve the quality of their entry jobs and their long-term prospects in the Austrian labour market.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Labor Market, Economic Integration, and Jobs
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

159. Occupational Trajectories Among Refugees in Austria: The Role of Co-ethnic and Austrian Social Networks in Job Search

Author:
Sandra Leitner
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This paper analyses occupational trajectories of refugees from their last job in the home country to their first and current jobs in Austria and the role of co-ethnic and Austrian social networks in job search, using data from a large-scale survey of recognised refugees from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran who have predominantly come to Austria since 2010, thereby covering the strong refugee wave of 2015 2016. The results corroborate a U-shaped pattern, with a sharp initial occupational loss followed by a rather moderate occupational recovery. Although native social networks play no role for occupational changes, co-ethnic social networks – particularly when used as a stand-alone job search strategy – prove detrimental along the entire trajectory. However, co-ethnic social networks are beneficial if used in combination with the Austrian labour market service or NGOs. Some refugees prove particularly vulnerable, such as older refugees or highly educated refugees who undergo more pronounced initial occupational downgrading, with subsequent occupational upgrading either limited or absent.
Topic:
Migration, Refugees, Integration, Social Capital, and Labor Market
Political Geography:
Europe and Austria

160. A Comparative Analysis of the Social Situation Between Carbon-intensive and Noncarbon-intensive Regions

Author:
Roman Römisch
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This study focuses on the social situation in carbon-intensive regions and the role of migration in defining its quality. The analysis examines whether carbon-intensive areas, especially those with large outward migration, are more vulnerable to adverse social trends than other regions. Our findings reveal a robust association between the processes of decarbonisation and migration, which collectively exert a significant impact on the social conditions within EU regions. This influence is assessed using various indicators, such as the Social Progress Index, employment rates, availability of hospital beds, access to preschool education, and the prevalence of severe material deprivation. We demonstrate that compared to noncarbon-intensive regions, carbon-intensive regions, compelled as they are to undergo structural changes to meet environmental requirements, have a diminished capacity to offer their residents satisfactory employment opportunities and a high quality of social life. Moreover, if carbon-intensive regions experience the challenge of negative net migration, their social development is highly likely to face a notable deterioration. On the other hand, in cases where inward migration predominates, regions at risk of decarbonisation tend to exhibit minor deterioration – and even outperform the noncarbon-intensive group experiencing outward migration.
Topic:
Migration, European Union, Decarbonization, and Regional Development
Political Geography:
Europe