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111. The Fourth Industrial Revolution: Realizing India’s Demographic Dividend

Author:
A. Srija
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
This paper attempts to explore the avenues for future jobs given the impact of technology in the form of internet of things, robots, cloud computing, nano technology, automization of manufacturing etc. and the measures in place to address these challenges. The paper explores the labour market from the supply side, the demographic advantage that India has along with the constraints involved in converting the advantage into a dividend. The demographic spread of the labour force is geographically different in that the South we have an ageing workforce with longer life expectancy while in the North and Central India the new entrants to the labour market is the youth. The demographic advantage is concentrated in the North. This is then addressed against the backdrop of the impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on jobs and the skill gaps that exist in addressing them. The skill gap therefore needs to be addressed differently. While the policy focus is on skilling/up-skilling and re-skilling the emphasis of each of these components differ according to the geographical spread of the demographic advantage. There should be continuous upgrading of the training curriculum to incorporate the technological advancements. More number of youth should be motivated to opt for vocational courses that enhance their skill set and employability to enable India convert its demographic advantage into dividend.
Topic:
Demographics, Science and Technology, Manufacturing, Internet of Things, and Fourth Industrial Revolution
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

112. Understanding the Performance of India’s Manufacturing Sector: Evidence from Firm Level Data

Author:
Radhicka Kapoor
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
India’s overall economic performance over the last fifteen years has been outstanding, with the economy growing at an average of over 7% p.a. Growth has been service-led with the services sector accounting for over 60% of GDP growth over the period. Importantly, India’s structural transformation has been marked by a shift straight from agriculture to services led growth, leapfrogging manufacturing. The problem with this pattern of growth has been that it has generated relatively fewer opportunities of employment generation. The role of the manufacturing sector, ordinarily considered to be an important engine of growth and job creation for low and middle income countries, has been rather limited. Its share in total GDP and employment has continued to hover around 15% and 12% respectively for the last three decades.
Topic:
Agriculture, GDP, Economy, Economic Growth, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

113. U.S. Prison Labor: Constitutional & Profitable

Author:
Kate Morgan
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Human Rights Education, University of Denver
Abstract:
In the United States modern prison industrial complex (PIC), there are about 2 million inmates, marking the U.S. as the largest prison population in the world and the second highest incarceration rate per capita. The U.S. has 25% of the world’s prison population, but only 5% of the world’s population. With historical roots involved in using inmates as labor for agriculture, textiles, and other manufactured goods, this practice still continues by means of privatizing labor. Under the 13th amendment, forced labor is legally allowed when a person is imprisoned. Prisoners will never have “family emergencies”, ask for a pay raise, or refuse work without the threat of solitary confinement. This makes them the ideal economically conservative employee. Private companies and organizations will lease work out to prisons, and the prisons will then use their inmates to perform the needed work, whether it be mining, agricultural work, making military weapons, or making garments and clothing for Victoria’s Secret. The pay grade for an inmate doing this work can range from nothing to $3 per hour varying per state, with Texas and Georgia legally not having to pay anything to their inmates/employees.
Topic:
Human Rights, Privatization, Labor Issues, Prisons/Penal Systems, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:
United States and North America

114. Large Capital Inflows, Sectoral Allocation, and Economic Performance

Author:
Gianluca Benigno, Nathan Converse, and Luca Fornaro
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper describes the stylized facts characterizing periods of exceptionally large capital inflows in a sample of 70 middle- and high-income countries over the last 35 years. We identify 155 episodes of large capital inflows and find that these events are typically accompanied by an economic boom and followed by a slump. Moreover, during episodes of large capital inflows capital and labor shift out of the manufacturing sector, especially if the inflows begin during a period of low international interest rates. However, accumulating reserves during the period in which capital inflows are unusually large appears to limit the extent of labor reallocation. Larger credit booms and capital inflows during the episodes we identify increase the probability of a sudden stop occurring during or immediately after the episode. In addition, the severity of the post-inflows recession is significantly related to the extent of labor reallocation during the boom, with a stronger shift of labor out of manufacturing during the inflows episode associated with a sharper contraction in the aftermath of the episode.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Capital Flows, Manufacturing, and Capital
Political Geography:
Global Focus

115. The Energy Boom and Manufacturing in the United States

Author:
William R. Melick
Publication Date:
06-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper examines the response of U.S. manufacturers to changes in competitiveness brought about by movements in the price of natural gas. I estimate the response of various measures of manufacturing activity using panel regression methods across roughly 80 industries that allow each industry's response to vary with its energy intensity. These estimates suggest that the fall in the price of natural gas since 2006 is associated with a 2 to 3 percent increase in activity for the entire manufacturing sector, with much larger effects of 30 percent or more for the most energy intensive industries.
Topic:
Energy Policy, Industrial Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

116. Gains from Offshoring? Evidence from U.S. Microdata

Author:
Ryan Monarch, Jooyoun Park, and Jagadeesh Sivadasan
Publication Date:
11-2014
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
We construct a new linked data set with over one thousand offshoring events by matching Trade Adjustment Assistance program petition data to confidential data on U.S. firm operations. We exploit these data to assess how offshoring affects domestic firm-level aggregate employment, output, wages and productivity. Consistent with heterogenous firm models where offshoring involves a fixed cost, we find that the average offshoring firm is larger and more productive than the average non-offshorer. After initiating offshoring, firms experience large declines in employment (46.2 per cent), output (38.5 per cent) and capital (28.8 per cent) relative to their industry peers. We find no significant change in average wages or in total factor productivity measures for offshoring firms. These results are consistent across two separate difference-in-differences (DID) approaches, an instrumental variables approach, and a number of robustness checks. Thus, we find offshoring to be a strong substitute for domestic activity in this large sample of offshoring events.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Manufacturing, Trade, Outsourcing, and Capital
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

117. Wage Differentials: Trade Openness and Wage Bargaining

Author:
Gustavo Gonzaga, Beatriz Muriel, and Cristina Terra
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
We build a theoretical model that incorporates unionization in the labor market into a Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson (HOS) framework to investigate the impact of unionization on the Stolper-Samuelson Theorem. To capture the American economy case, we assume that unskilled labor in the manufactured goods sector is unionized, and that sector is intensive in skilled labor, and that trade liberalization increases the relative price of manufactured goods. In the HOS model, trade liberalization induces a reallocation of production towards the sector that uses intensively the country’s most abundant factor. The resulting change in relative labor demand impacts wage bargaining in the unionized sector, which, in turn, has a dampening effect on the Stolper-Samuelson effect. Moreover, wages of unionized workers are even less responsive to trade liberalization. Through traditional mandated-wages regressions, we show that skilled-wage differentials changes were less pronounced among more unionized sectors in the U.S. economy for the 1979-1990 period.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Economy, Manufacturing, Trade, and Wages
Political Geography:
Global Focus

118. Productivity, Structural Change, and Latin American Development

Author:
Carlos Gustavo Machicado, Felix Rioja, and Antonio Saravia
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
We calibrate a simple neoclassical model of structural transformation to a set of Latin American countries and show that slow growth in agricultural productivity can substantially delay the development process and result in significant differences in per capita incomes. Some of our results indicate that low agricultural productivity delayed the beginning of the industrialization process in Paraguay and Bolivia by about 100 years compared to the leader of the group, Chile. The development process can be accelerated, however, by increasing productivity in the non-agricultural sector. In fact, in the long run, it is non-agricultural productivity what determines the speed of convergence. Improvements in non-agricultural productivity between 20% to over 100% would be required for the other Latin American countries in our set to significantly close the income gap with Chile by the end of the century.
Topic:
Agriculture, Manufacturing, Economic Development, and Productivity
Political Geography:
Latin America

119. Constraints on the demand for youth labour in Zambia

Author:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR), Grayson Koyi, Gibson Masumbu, and Albert Halwampa
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia is one of many developing countries struggling to create adequate employment opportunities for its people, especially in the formal economy. Unemployment is highest among youths (15–24 years old) and particularly affects those without skills. Unless the challenge of youth unemployment is met, Zambia could face rising poverty levels in the future. Based on a survey of firms in the mining and quarrying, manufacturing, and construction industries, this study analyses constraints on the demand for youth labour and identifies five broad policy areas in which the government could help make it easier for firms to absorb more young people.
Topic:
Development, Labor Issues, Youth, Mining, Manufacturing, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia

120. Understanding youth labour demand constraints in Zambia: The mining, manufacturing and construction sectors

Author:
Grayson Koyi, Gibson Masumbu, and Albert Halwampa
Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
Abstract:
Zambia is among many developing countries struggling to create adequate employment opportunities for its people, especially in the formal economy. There is high youth unemployment, especially in urban areas where it has surged to 40.4% for females and 35.6% for males (CSO 2011, 95). Sender et al. (2005) attribute the high youth unemployment rates in Zambia to the socio-economic crisis of the past two decades and the young and increasing population that is producing an ever bigger youth labour force. Mayaka and Moyo (1999) further observe that youth unemployment mainly affects those without skills. A new challenge is the revised minimum wage legislation, which could influence youth employment levels if formal sector employers opt to lay off excess labour in order to contain labour-related costs of production. Unless the challenge of youth unemployment is met, Zambia could face rising poverty levels in the future. The new government has made pronouncements about expanding employment opportunities for youths, but without good data and information about labour demand dynamics, the government’s good intentions are likely to face severe challenges. Closing this knowledge gap is a necessary step in identifying corrective policy measures.
Topic:
Development, Labor Issues, Youth, Mining, Manufacturing, Unemployment, and Construction
Political Geography:
Africa and Zambia