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541. "Strategically Lonely" Iran Exploits Opportunities for Regional Influence

Author:
Barbara Slavin
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Over the past three decades, the Islamic Republic of Iran has shown remarkable endurance. It has survived an eight-year war with Iraq, mounting economic sanctions, and serious domestic unrest. It has benefited from the missteps of adversaries, which have created opportunities for Iran to expand ties to militant movements in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories, and to increase its influence in Afghanistan. Recent uprisings against Arab governments long allied with Washington have encouraged the Iranian government to portray itself as the fulcrum of a "new" anti-Western Middle East.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, Palestine, and Lebanon

542. Afghan High Peace Council Fails to Reflect Afghan Civil Society

Author:
Patricia Gossman
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The Afghan public, along with the international community, appears increasingly supportive of opening negotiations with the Taliban to end the war. The Karzai administration also supports this, as reflected by the June 2010 Peace Jirga held in Kabul and the 70-member High Peace Council that was formed thereafter. In spite of the talks, no one in Washington or Kabul has clarified what reconciliation means in practice, particularly with respect to accountability for abuses that occurred during the rule of the Taliban as well as those that occurred when rival factions fought with each other before the Taliban came to power. On November 10, 2010 representatives from Afghan and international NGOs, as well as the UN, gathered for a one-day Conference on Peace, Reconciliation, and Justice in Kabul to revitalize public discussion on peace and reconciliation among the government of Afghanistan, the international community, and Afghan civil society. The discussions revealed a troubling disconnect between the High Peace Council and Afghan civil society representatives who strongly criticized the Council\'s inclusion of former militia leaders among its members, the lack of transparency in its activities, and the lack of clarity in its objectives. These criticisms indicate that for a peace process to have broad, popular support, the Afghan government and the international community must make greater efforts to engage local leaders in a dialogue and account for the interests of communities and interest groups that are not represented in the High Peace Council.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, Islam, War, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

543. Is There an Islamist Alternative in Egypt?

Author:
Daniela Pioppi
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
It is a common place in the literature that the Muslim Brotherhood (jama'a al-ikhwan al-muslimin) is - after its re-emergence on the political scene back in the seventies - the main (if not the only) real, organised and mass-based opposition force in Egypt. Events in Egypt in January 2011 have recast attention on this question. This paper aims to evaluate, inasmuch as it is possible, the state of health of the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) today, after forty years of coexistence with the Egyptian (neo)-authoritarian regime. Has the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood represented a real alternative to the incumbent regime? Or it is more correct to speak today in terms of an almost 'functional' opposition, tamed by recurring political repression and limited freedom of action? To what extent has the Muslim Brotherhood been able to shape or at least to influence the Egyptian political and social agenda, both with respect to the regime and to other opposition forces?
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, and Egypt

544. The Sudan Referendum and Neighbouring Countries: Egypt and Uganda

Author:
Øystein Rolandsen, Jacob Høigilt, and Åshild Falch
Publication Date:
01-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
As a former coloniser and the Sudan's Nile-valley neighbour to the north, Egypt will inevitably be affected by the Sudan's political transition. As Egypt's regional influence appears to wane, the Sudan's increasing economic strength and the likely secession of Southern Sudan exemplify Egypt's overall difficulties in regard to the regional politics of the Horn of Africa and Nile Basin. Egyptian policy-makers and diplomats struggle with fundamental contradictions in Egypt's current regional status, competing priorities, and the need to stay on good terms with all political parties in the Sudan. To be able to balance domestic needs, relations with its immediate neighbours, and its role as a regional power Egypt must reshape its foreign policy; Egypt's national interests in the Sudan preclude neutrality in the processes ahead. It can however play a key role in a joint regional and international effort to secure the peaceful secession for Southern Sudan.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Civil War, Democratization, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, and Islam
Political Geography:
Uganda, Africa, Sudan, and Egypt

545. The Muslim Brotherhood: On the Record

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The following sampling of comments by Muslim Brotherhood leadership in Egypt explains the group's position in the current crisis and its attitudes towards the United States, Israel, and the rest of the Arab world.
Topic:
Democratization, Islam, and Insurgency
Political Geography:
United States, Israel, Arabia, and Egypt

546. Le Nord-ouest du Tchad: la prochaine zone à haut risque ?

Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Depuis plus de cinq ans, alors que la rébellion armée de l'Est du Tchad et la crise du Darfour focalisent l'attention, le Nord-ouest du pays a suscité peu d'intérêts. Cependant, l'ampleur de plus en plus grande du trafic international de drogues et du terrorisme dans la bande sahélo-saharienne, l'émergence d'un islamisme combattant dans les pays voisins, l'intensification des ressentiments intercommunautaires et l'érosion des mécanismes de justice traditionnelle, la sous-administration et l'abandon qui caractérisent la politique gouvernementale à l'égard de cette région, risquent de devenir des facteurs de déstabilisation. Les autorités tchadiennes doivent changer de mode de gouvernance dans cette région et désamorcer les différentes sources de tensions ou les risques de déstabilisation avant que ceux-ci n'atteignent un seuil critique.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Islam, Insurgency, and Narcotics Trafficking
Political Geography:
Africa and Nigeria

547. The Muslim Brotherhood's Role in the Egyptian Revolution

Author:
Shadi Hamid and Steven Brooke
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
On february 11, 2011, Egypt had its revolution when President Hosni Mubarak finally stepped down after 18 days of massive protests. With the military taking control and promising a transition to democracy, the question of what comes next has acquired a particular urgency. Specifically, Western fears of the Muslim Brotherhood stepping into the political vacuum have re-energized a longstanding debate about the role of Islamists in Middle Eastern politics, and the dilemma that poses for the United States.
Topic:
Islam
Political Geography:
United States and Egypt

548. Separating the Taliban from al-Qaeda: The Core of Success in Afghanistan

Author:
Alex Strick van Linschoten and Felix Kuehn
Publication Date:
02-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
For much of the international community, relations between the Taliban and al-Qaeda – as well as the Taliban's ties to the wider universe of jihadist groups – pose the core obstacle to including the Islamist movement in a possible political settlement in Afghanistan. Can the Taliban become part of a political process without offering refuge to al-Qaeda, its affiliates, and other groups posing an international threat? Today the Afghan Taliban collaborate in some ways with al- Qaeda and other jihadist groups. Whether such relations result from the context – the need for assistance against a powerful enemy – or are based on principles or ideology affects how possible it is to change this collaboration. Such an assessment requires examining empirical evidence in context. This report represents a summary of our efforts to date.
Topic:
Islam, Terrorism, Insurgency, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

549. The Siren Call of Partition Could Lead Only to Disaster for Bosnia

Author:
Daniel Serwer
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
Whenever the going gets rough in Bosnia, someone revives the idea of separating Croats,Bosniak Muslims and Serbs to preserve the peace. This idea is wrong.
Topic:
Islam and War
Political Geography:
Bosnia

550. The Indian-Pakistani Divide

Author:
Christophe Jaffrelot
Publication Date:
03-2011
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Many comparisons of India and Pakistan attribute India's democracy to Hinduism and Pakistan's autocracy to Islam. Philip Oldenburg's new book steers clear of this argument, focusing on historical, political, and external factors to explain how India came out ahead.
Topic:
Islam, Politics, and History
Political Geography:
Pakistan and India