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11. After a Decade of Decline, the US Undocumented Population Increased by 650,000 in 2022

Author:
Robert Warren
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
This report describes estimates of the undocumented population residing in the United States in 2022 compiled by the Center for Migration Studies of New York (CMS). The estimates are based on data collected in the American Community Survey (ACS) conducted by the US Census Bureau (Ruggles et al. 2023). The report finds that the undocumented population grew from 10.3 million in 2021 to 10.9 million in 2022, an increase of 650,000. The increase reverses more than a decade of gradual decline. The undocumented populations from 10 countries increased by a total of 525,000: Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and India; El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras in Central America; and Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, and Venezuela in South America. The undocumented population in Florida increased by about 125,000 in 2022, Texas increased by 60,000, New York by 50,000, and Maryland by 45,000. The report explains why undocumented population growth is much less than the number of apprehensions by DHS. Finally, the Appendix provides a detailed description of the CMS methodology. • After remaining at or near zero growth from 2010 to 2021 (Warren 2023), the US undocumented population increased by 650,000 in 2022. • The largest population gains in 2022 were for Central America (205,000), South America (200,000), and Asia (140,000). • From 2015 to 2022, the undocumented population from Mexico declined by 1.3 million; in the same period, the combined population from Central and South America increased by 1.2 million. • The undocumented population from Asia declined by 115,000 from 2015 to 2021 and then increased by 140,000 in 2022. • California, Texas, Florida, New York, and New Jersey had the largest undocumented populations in 2022. The total population in those five states increased by 300,000 in 2022. • The combined undocumented population from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras was undercounted by almost 400,000 in 2022. Correcting this data accounted for more than half the estimated increase in the undocumented population in 2022.
Topic:
Survey, Undocumented Population, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

12. Managing International Protection Needs at Borders

Author:
Lucía Salgado, Susan Fratzke, Lawrence Huang, and Emma Dorst
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Migration Policy Institute (MPI)
Abstract:
National borders are one of the primary apertures through which publics perceive and judge migration trends and policy. Dysfunction at borders has implications that go well beyond national security, affecting commerce and trade as well as human mobility of various kinds. For asylum seekers, who generally must reach another country’s territory in order to seek protection, borders can represent the difference between danger and safety. As publics in many countries become increasingly vocal in their dissatisfaction with the management of their nation’s borders, policymakers face the difficult task of designing border systems that prevent the outbreak (or perception) of chaos, even as major displacement crises and the complexities of mixed humanitarian, economic, and family reunification migration strain outmoded infrastructure. This report—part of the Beyond Territorial Asylum: Making Protection Work in a Bordered World initiative led by MPI and the Robert Bosch Stiftung—examines the key elements of an effective and protection-sensitive border system. It begins with an overview of what makes border management challenging at the best of times, and particularly so amid acute displacement crises. It then explores the core features of border processes capable of responding to mixed migration while protecting the right to seek asylum, and what conditions need to be in place for these procedures to be successful.
Topic:
Migration, Borders, Asylum, Protection, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:
Global Focus

13. Feature Article: In Search of Hope: Gaza’s Youth Face Death and Row the Boat in Uncertain Waters

Author:
Pal-Think for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In the scorching summer of 2023, hundreds of Gaza youths driven by depression and despair queued to submit their applications to obtain Turkish visas. In search of a better life, those youths have made the tough decision to travel to Turkey. However, the story does not end at this point. After landing at Turkey, many will attempt illegal migration to Europe using dangerous boats. Since 2007, local reports have confirmed that over 250,000 youths migrated from the Gaza Strip in pursuit of a thriving life in Europe. In August 2023, alone, there were over 16,700 Turkish visa applications submitted by young adults living in the Gaza Strip’s five governates. Interviews with applicants revealed that the most travelled destination is Turkey through which they can migrate to Europe. Young citizens, aged 18 to 30, emphasised that the already deteriorating economic environment in Gaza has created a space for higher immigration rates. Migration from the Gaza Strip has been increasing in recent years. As a result of stagnating economic situation, prospective migrant youth have highlighted that migration is not a voluntary choice but a consequence of prolonged economic hardships. Several research papers have shown that there are no accurate statistics on the people’s number who left Gaza, however, in May 2019 it was cited that more than 40,000 emigrants left Gaza as of the same time in 2018. While the United Nations estimated about 20,000 people left and according to human rights experts in Gaza, 70,000 people left from the period of 2014 until 2020. Although this is just an approximate estimate, these numbers suggest a high percentage of youth migrating from Gaza. According to UNHCR data, close to 150,000 people made their way into the EU this way in 2022 alone.
Topic:
Push Factor, Economic Crisis, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Mediterranean

14. An Analysis of Trends in the US Undocumented Population Since 2011 and Estimates of the Undocumented Population for 2021

Author:
Robert Warren
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:
Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:
In 2021, the undocumented population residing in the United States (US) increased slightly to 10.3 million, compared to 10.2 million the previous year. The gradual decline or near-zero growth of this population has continued for more than a decade. However, the large increases in apprehensions at the southern border in recent years, along with continued legislative gridlock in Congress, could portend a new era of growth of this population. Unfortunately, the data needed to determine whether the population will enter a period of growth after 2021 — or whether the era of near-zero growth will continue — will not be available for at least a year or two. The most accurate demographic estimates of the undocumented population are derived from data collected in the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey. Estimates of the size of the undocumented population in 2022 will not be available until early 2024. This report focuses on the most significant trend in the undocumented population in the past decade — the remarkable decline of 1.9 million in the undocumented population from Mexico from 2011 to 2021. The decline for Mexico in this period was 600,000 more than the total population increase from the seven countries (in order) with the fastest growing US undocumented populations: Guatemala, Honduras, India, Venezuela, El Salvador, Brazil, and China. This paper finds that: • The long-term decline, or near-zero growth, of the total undocumented population that began in 2008 continued in 2021. • The percent of undocumented residents in the total US population declined from 3.8 percent in 2011 to 3.1 percent in 2021. • The undocumented population from Mexico declined from 6.4 million in 2011 to 4.4 million in 2021, a drop of 1.9 million in 10 years. • A total of 2.9 million, or 47 percent, of the US undocumented population from Mexico in 2011 had left the undocumented population by 2021. • The drop in the undocumented population from Mexico from 2011 to 2021 occurred nationwide, and the decline affected the undocumented population in nearly every state. • The fastest growing undocumented populations by country in the last 10 years were from Guatemala, Honduras, India, El Salvador, Venezuela, and Brazil. The combined undocumented populations from these six countries grew by 1.2 million. • Countries that had declining populations after 2011 included Poland, Peru, Ecuador, Korea, and Philippines, in addition to the large drop for Mexico. • California had the largest decline in undocumented residents — 665,000 from 2011 to 2021. The undocumented population from Mexico living in California during this period declined by 720,000. • The combined undocumented population in California, New York, and Illinois fell by more than one million from 2021 to 2011.
Topic:
Migration, Data, Undocumented Population, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:
North America, Mexico, and United States of America

15. Informal Sector's Role in North African Economies Tied to Instability

Author:
Sara Nowacka
Publication Date:
08-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The July agreement between the EU and Tunisia on countering irregular migration indicates that support for North African economies is an increasingly important element of cooperation between the EU and countries in the region. A characteristic feature of these economies is the prevalence of the informal sector, where workers operate in extremely unstable conditions, prompting protests or decisions to migrate. To increase the effectiveness of its actions, the EU should therefore support North African countries in ensuring decent working conditions in this sector.
Topic:
European Union, Economy, Informal Economy, Instability, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:
Europe, North Africa, and Tunisia