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2731. China's Future: Implications for US Interests

Author:
Robert Sutter
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The National Intelligence Council and the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress hosted an all-day seminar at the Library of Congress on September 24, 1999 assessing the five-year outlook for China's domestic development and international security behavior. Entitled "China's Future--Implications for the United States," the seminar featured seven formal presentations by prominent academic specialists complemented by commentaries by nine China specialists from the US Intelligence Community. The Directors of the China offices in the State and Defense Departments offered concluding remarks on the implications of the conference findings for US policy toward China. Panelists and commentators focused specifically on political leaders and institutions, economic and social trends, security and foreign policies, and the overall prospects for China through 2005 (see seminar program). The main thrust of the deliberations reflected cautious optimism about China's future. The regime appears resilient enough to deal with most anticipated problems internally. China is wary of the United States and is gradually building military power. But unless Beijing is challenged by unexpected circumstances, China is unlikely to break with the United States or engage in disruptive military buildups or aggressive foreign behavior.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States and China

2732. Northeast Asia: Static but Stable

Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This memorandum was prepared by the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia based on a meeting held on 7 July 1999. The National Intelligence Council (NIC) routinely sponsors meetings with outside experts to gain knowledge and insights to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in this meeting summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States and Asia

2733. Urbanization and Security

Author:
Alan Gilbert
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
This paper will argue that no consistent or meaningful relationship exists between urbanization and security. For a start, the words urbanisation and security do not mean a great deal because they embrace too many cross-cutting ideas and processes. Second, researchers have found few consistent correlations between the numerous dimensions of security and urbanisation. Third, insofar as one can find a close correlation, independent variables usually account for the statistical relationship. Fourth, even when a direct correlation between security and urbanisation exists, the direction of causation is by no means obvious. Finally, every country and every city contains so much internal variation that most generalisations across nations, let alone across regions, are rendered meaningless.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Civil Society, Development, and Government

2734. Europe and Its Neighbors

Author:
Gianni Vaggi
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Studies Center
Abstract:
The paper is an introduction to some of the issues that the enlargement, both in terms of memberships and association, will involve.
Topic:
International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:
Europe

2735. Explaining Political Corruption: An Institutional-Choice Approach

Author:
Michael w. Collier
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
This paper presents and institutional-choice model that addresses the problem of political corruption, the abuse of public office for private gain. The institutional-choice model first employs a rational-choice game, and then through a constructivist analyses links the game solutions to a surrounding institutional structure that influences agent decisions. This paper models political corruption as a coordination game among a state's ruling elite and citizen groups—a game with multiple solutions that reveal the range of corruption expected among states. A constructivist theory of rules is then used to build the causal mechanisms explaining the domestic and international causes of political corruption. The paper highlights the need to build self-enforcing mechanisms to police the conduct of public officials.This paper presents and institutional-choice model that addresses the problem of political corruption, the abuse of public office for private gain. The institutional-choice model first employs a rational-choice game, and then through a constructivist analyses links the game solutions to a surrounding institutional structure that influences agent decisions. This paper models political corruption as a coordination game among a state's ruling elite and citizen groups—a game with multiple solutions that reveal the range of corruption expected among states. A constructivist theory of rules is then used to build the causal mechanisms explaining the domestic and international causes of political corruption. The paper highlights the need to build self-enforcing mechanisms to police the conduct of public officials.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics

2736. Neorealism's Logic and Evidence: When is a Theory Falsified?

Author:
Bruce Bueno de Mesquita
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
Knowledge progresses through a dynamic process. Arguments are made for the plausibility of hypotheses. The logic of such arguments is scrutinized and the evidence for and against the inferences drawn from the arguments is evaluated. Progress is made by reducing the set of logically and empirically plausible explanations of the phenomena of interest. Such reduction takes place on at least two levels. Some seemingly plausible explanations are eliminated for want of logical coherence. Others, passing the test of logical coherence, are superceded by alternatives that account for a broader array of empirical phenomena and/or a broader set of facts. In this essay I suggest that on both grounds, the neorealist research program is no longer a plausible explanation of the central phenomena in international relations with which it is concerned.
Topic:
International Relations

2737. Interests, Schminterests: Precision in Descriptions of and Assumptions About State Motivations

Author:
Kenneth Lloyd Forsberg
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
Occasionally, terminological problems reflect underlying conceptual confusions that can seriously impede the advancement of discourse and understanding. This paper argues that two such problems currently exist in much of international relations scholarship, focused around the concept “interests.”
Topic:
International Relations

2738. Ideas Toolkit: The Role of Culture in the Transboundary Air Pollution Issue in Northeast Asia

Author:
Kenneth E. Wilkening
Publication Date:
02-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
This paper outlines a general approach for analyzing the role of culture in international environmental policymaking. It draws on work in anthropology and foreign policy analysis. As a first step in investigating the role of culture in international environmental policy, culture needs to be viewed as a “toolkit of environmental ideas.” The second step is to delimit broad definitions of culture to a more workable forms. Three forms are offered (following Hudson 1997a): culture as organization of environmental meaning, environmental shared-value preferences, and templates for environmental action. The third step is to answer three basic questions relative to the specific definition of culture employed: who draws what environmentally-related ideas from the ideas toolkit, how are these ideas employed in the political arena, and how do these ideas, originally drawn upon for political purposes, change and ultimately end up changing the set of environmentally-related ideas in the toolkit. In the political arena the ideas are assumed to be embodied in a “discourse.” The terminology of discourse and the body of theory built up around it is then used as a vehicle for examining the role of culture and cultural change in international environmental policymaking. A rough and preliminary attempt is made to provide a concrete example of the above approach in relation to the role of culture in the transboundary air pollution issue in Northeast Asia.
Topic:
International Relations, Environment, and Politics
Political Geography:
Israel and Northeast Asia

2739. The European Union and the Middle East Peace Process

Author:
Gerald M. Steinberg
Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Europe, both in terms of the individual states and collectively through the 15-member European Union, seeks to play an active role in the Middle East peace process. There are many reasons for this - substantive, political, and symbolic.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Europe and Middle East

2740. Barak's Complex Foreign Policy Agenda

Author:
Gerald M. Steinberg
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Prime Minister Ehud Barak will not get a period of grace or a post-election honeymoon. Immediately upon taking office, he faces a number of pressing issues. Many of these are domestic - including religious-secular relations and economic concerns.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Middle East, and Asia