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1802. Can al-Qaeda's Lebanese Expansion Be Stopped?
- Author:
- Emily Hunt
- Publication Date:
- 02-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Israelis assess the implications of Hamas's victory in January elections to the Palestinian Legislative Council, a new threat may be developing in Lebanon. Al-Qaeda–linked terrorists have been present in Lebanon for a decade, but recent statements by Ayman al-Zawahiri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi suggest that the dual objectives of destabilizing Arab regimes and targeting Israel proper are becoming top al-Qaeda priorities. Al-Zarqawi–linked terrorists in Lebanon have already engaged in low-level targeting of Israeli and Lebanese interests, yet several obstacles may hinder their ability to launch significant attacks in or from Lebanon. The Lebanese government, although weak, has a clear interest in preventing both internally and externally directed al-Qaeda activity. The dynamic among Hizballah, the Palestinians, and al-Qaeda remains more ambiguous, but early signs suggest potential antagonism among the groups. Together, Israel and the United States may be able to help Lebanon contain this emerging threat.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Regional Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, Israel, and Lebanon
1803. Turkey: Between the West and the Middle East
- Author:
- Yigit Alpogan
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 24, 2006, Yigit Alpogan, secretary-general of Turkey's National Security Council, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Alpogan, who assumed his current post in August 2004 as the first civilian head of the Turkish National Security Council, previously served as the Turkish ambassador to Greece and Turkmenistan as well as deputy undersecretary of foreign affairs. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Washington, Turkey, Middle East, and Greece
1804. Hamas's Rise and Israel's Choice
- Author:
- Robert Satloff
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On January 23, 2006, Washington Institute executive director Robert Satloff addressed the 2006 Herzliya Conference on the Balance of Israel's National Security. Excerpts from Dr. Satloff's remarks follow. “Beware the unintended consequences of sound policies. On June 24, 2002, President Bush announced a major shift in U.S. policy. No longer would fulfillment of diplomatic requirements—that is, acceptance of UN Security Council Resolution 242 or recognizing Israel's right to exist—alone merit the full engagement of the United States in assisting Palestinians as they try to achieve their legitimate rights through negotiations with Israel. From then on, how they handled themselves at home—whether they are corrupt, whether they are democratic, whether they are, as the president said, 'untainted by terrorism'—would all matter.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Washington, and Middle East
1805. America and the Middle East, circa 2006
- Author:
- James F. Hoge Jr. and Stuart Rothenberg
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Barring any unforeseen developments in the region, there will be very little change in U.S. policy toward the Middle East this year. Terrorism will remain the top priority overall. In addition, the Bush administration will continue to maintain the priorities that have defined American approaches over recent decades, such as preserving energy supplies, containing strife, ensuring Israel's existence, and working with allies such as Turkey. Further, the White House will reiterate its condemnations of the Syrian regime—though it will refrain from more active policies of regime change for fear that a new government would be even worse. However, the issues of democratization, Iraqi development, the Iranian nuclear program, and the Israeli-Palestinian issue will also be high on the agenda in 2006.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, America, Washington, and Middle East
1806. A Tale of Two Countries: Defining Post-Syria Lebanon
- Author:
- Michael Young
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When Shiite ministers recently “suspended” their participation in the Lebanese cabinet, though without resigning, it highlighted an increasingly apparent reality in post-Syria Lebanon: Two powerful camps coexist today. One, led by Hizballah, in alliance with the Amal movement, sits atop a Shiite community generally, though not unanimously, supporting their positions. The other reflects a cross-communal parliamentary majority, the cornerstone of which is the Sunni-led Future Movement of Saad Hariri, son of the murdered former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and Religion
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria
1807. Map Wars: The UAE Reclaims Lost Territory from Saudi Arabia
- Author:
- Simon Henderson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- After years of quiet diplomatic frustration, the oil-rich Persian Gulf federated state of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has publicly reopened a dispute with neighboring Saudi Arabia over two parts of their common border. A map in the 2006 edition of the official UAE Yearbook shows the UAE extending westward as far as Qatar, across territory currently controlled by Saudi Arabia. (The map in the 2005 edition does not show this.) Less obvious, but also depicted, is a southern border that extends to include most of the Shaybah Oil Field, Saudi Arabia's newest oil production area.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates
1808. Khaddam's Revelations: Is the Asad Regime Unraveling?
- Author:
- Robert Rabil
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Abdul Halim Khaddam, who was vice-president of Syria from 1984 to June 2005, gave an explosive interview to the Dubai-based al-Arabia TV on December 30 implicating the Syrian leadership, including President Bashar al-Asad, in the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri. Khaddam's action widened irrevocably the crack in Syria's political system.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Government, and United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
1809. Fatah's Prospects in the Legislative Elections
- Author:
- Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
- Publication Date:
- 01-2006
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- With just over two weeks left before January 25 Palestinian legislative elections, the mainstream Fatah movement remains bitterly divided, with some of its key factions advocating the postponement of elections and others demanding that voting be held as scheduled. Having publicly aired its internal problems over the last weeks rather than developing a clear campaign message, Fatah is unlikely to win more than 40 percent of the seats in the next Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC). Even though the question of Israel allowing voting in East Jerusalem now seems resolved, it remains to be seen whether elections will take place. If they do proceed, Fatah is certain to lose its monopoly on the Palestinian Authority and will require a coalition to form the next government.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Jerusalem
1810. The Evolution of the Development Doctrine, 1950-2005
- Author:
- Erik Thorbecke
- Publication Date:
- 12-2006
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The evolution of the development doctrine over the last six decades is analysed in some detail in this paper. The development doctrine is defined as the body of knowledge consisting of four interrelated components: (1) the prevailing development objectives; (2) the conceptual state of the art relating to development theories, models, techniques and applications; (3) the underlying data system; and (4) the resulting development strategy. The main contributions and changes in these four components are traced through, decade by decade, starting with the 1950s.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Development, Politics, and Third World