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1631. South Africa's Export Predicament

Author:
Bailey Klinger and Ricardo Hausmann
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper explores export performance in South Africa over the past 50 years, and concludes that a lagging process of structural transformation is part of the explanation for stagnant exports per capita. Slow structural transformation in South Africa is found to be a consequence of the peripheral nature of South Africa's productive capabilities. We apply new tools to evaluate South Africa's future prospects for structural transformation, as well as to explore the sector al priorities of the DTI's draft industrial strategy. We then discuss policy conclusions, advocating an 'open-architecture' industrial policy where the methods applied herein are but one tool to screen private sector requests for sector-specific coordination and public goods.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

1632. Crime, Justice, and Growth in South Africa: Toward a Plausible Contribution from Criminal Justice to Economic Growth

Author:
Christopher Stone
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Crime in South Africa is high and widely believed to restrain investment. Nevertheless, both the mechanisms through which crime constrains growth and the actions that might be taken to loosen its grip are poorly understood. In light of the limited knowledge in the field and the limited capacity of criminal justice institutions, this paper proposes focusing on two issues: (1) the costs of crime to business, especially household-based enterprises in low-income settlements, and (2) the perception of violent crime. In both cases, the paper proposes a cyclical process of iterative innovation in which government seeks to solve narrowly circumscribed crime problems, and then leverages each success to generate wider hope and confidence in the criminal justice system.
Topic:
International Relations, Crime, and Development
Political Geography:
Africa

1633. Caste Embeddedness and Microfinance: Savings and Credit Cooperatives in Andhra Pradesh, India

Author:
Guy Stuart
Publication Date:
09-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper examines how the introduction of a new set of institutional practices through the creation of new organizations bump up against, but also build on, the existing social structure and practices of the setting in which they are introduced. In this case, the new practices were cooperative governance and financial accounting practices introduced through the medium of cooperative organizations into villages in Andhra Pradesh, by the Cooperative Development Foundation (CDF) during the 1990s. The paper demonstrates how the CDF both built on and challenged the existing social structure of the villages in which their cooperatives developed. In particular, the paper shows that the new institutional rules the cooperatives implemented interacted with the existing caste and gender structure in a variety of ways that included direct conflict, mutual support, and in difference.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
India, Asia, and Andhra Pradesh

1634. Global Imbalances and Low Interest Rates: An Equilibrium Model vs. A Disequilibrium Reality

Author:
Jeffrey Frankel
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Caballero, Farhis Gourinchas (2006) are motivated by three current properties of the world financial system: Fact 1: US current account deficits are large and rising. Fact 2: Long-term interest rates have been low since 2002. Fact 3: The share of US assets in world portfolios has been rising. Fact 3 follows naturally from fact 1; Fact 2 is the real anomaly.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Political Economy

1635. The Long March in Hong Kong: Continuing Steps in the Transition from Colony to Democracy

Author:
Herman B. Leonard and Thomas S. Axworthy
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Avowedly apolitical, Hong Kong is in the midst of the most rapid political transition in China and the success of this transition is crucial not only for the seven million residents of Hong Kong, but also for the future of China itself. How the authorities in Beijing respond to democratic demands from Hong Kong, and how the government of Hong Kong treads a democratic pathway within the boundaries of the Basic Law, are two of the most important questions in international politics today. China's decisions about Hong Kong will tell us much about the prospects of democratic transformation in China itself, and on that crucible the future of the 21 st century might turn.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, and Government
Political Geography:
China, Israel, Beijing, and Hong Kong

1636. Two Simple Mechanisms for Advancing the Democratic Governance of Hong Kong

Author:
Herman B. Leonard and Thomas S. Axworthy
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
In recent discussions in Hong Kong, we outlined two suggestions for increasing the governance role that might be given to parties that successfully develop an electoral mandate.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, and Government
Political Geography:
Israel and Hong Kong

1637. Inequality and Mortality: Long-Run Evidence from a Panel of Countries

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann and Edwin Lim
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
We investigate whether changes in economic inequality affect mortality in rich countries. To answer this question we use a new source of data on income inequality: tax data on the share of pretax income going to the richest 10 percent of the population in Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and the US between 1903 and 2003. Although this measure is not a good proxy for inequality within the bottom half of the income distribution, it is a good proxy for changes in the top half of the distribution and for the Gini coefficient. In the absence of country and year fixed effects, the income share of the top decile is negatively related to life expectancy and positively related to infant mortality. However, in our preferred fixed-effects specification these relationships are weak, statistically insignificant, and likely to change their sign. Nor do our data suggest that changes in the income share of the richest 10 percent affect homicide or suicide rates.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, Health, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States, United Kingdom, Canada, France, Germany, Spain, Australia, Switzerland, Sweden, Netherlands, Ireland, and New Zealand

1638. China and the Global Economy: Medium-term Issues and Options - A Synthesis Report

Author:
Ricardo Hausmann, Edwin Lim, and Michael Spence
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
China's economic and social achievements since the beginning of reform and opening are unprecedented in global history. Managing the growth process in this continuously changing environment has required great skill and the use of unconventional economic policy. Now China has entered a new era in its development process with a set of challenges largely different from those of the recent past. Some problems - such as growing internal and external structural imbalances, increasing income and regional inequality – have arisen from, or been exacerbated by, the very pattern and success of high growth since reforms began. Others are newly posed by rapid changes in the global economy. These challenges can best be tackled in an integrated and coordinated fashion. This report, supported by the China Economic Research and Advisory Programme (CERAP), identifies the primary challenges facing China today and presents options for meeting them.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Globalization
Political Geography:
China and Asia

1639. Precaution Against Terrorism

Author:
Jessica Stern and Jonathan B. Wiener
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Stunned by the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, the Bush administration adopted a new National Security Strategy in September 2002. The UK government took a similar stance. This new strategy calls for anticipatory attacks against potential enemies with uncertain capacities and intentions, even before their threat is imminent. Rather than wait for evidence of weapons of mass destruction, it shifts the burden of proof, obliging “rogue” states to show that they do not harbor weapons of mass destruction or terrorist cells, or else face the possibility of attack. This new strategy amounts to the adoption of the Precautionary Principle against the risk of terrorism. We offer two main conclusions about precaution against terrorism. First, any action taken to reduce a target risk always poses the introduction of countervailing risks. Moreover, a precautionary approach to terrorism is likely to entail larger, more expensive interventions, so the expected opportunity costs are likely to be higher. While considering worst-case scenarios is important for the development of sound policy, taking action based only on worst-case thinking can introduce unforeseen dangers and costs. We argue that a better approach to managing risk involves an assessment of the full portfolio of risks – those reduced by the proposed intervention, as well as those increased. We argue that decision makers developing counterterrorism measures need mechanisms to ensure that sensible risk analysis precedes precautionary actions. Such a mechanism currently exists to review and improve or reject proposed precautionary measures against health and environmental risks, but not, so far, for counterterrorism and national security policies. We urge the creation of such a review mechanism.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States

1640. Jefferson Rebuffed - The United States and the Future of Internet Governance

Author:
Viktor Mayer-Schoenberger and Malte Ziewitz
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
When after years of preparation and consultations, the World Summit on the Information Society (WSIS) concluded in Tunis with the adoption of the Tunis Commitment and the Tunis Agenda on November 18, 2005, the nearly fifty heads of state, vice–presidents, and almost 200 cabinet level government officials from around the world hailed it as a great achievement. For many of the 19,000 participants in the three-day meeting, which ended a multi-year process that had officially begun with the first WSIS meeting in Geneva in December 20035, the relief was palpable. Tense negotiations, public diplomacy, and a momentous switch of key players in the months leading up the Tunis event had at times put the prospect of a successful conclusion of the WSIS process in doubt.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, and Government
Political Geography:
United States