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1581. Reverse Balkanisation? Trade Integration in South-East Europe

Author:
David Kernohan
Publication Date:
08-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Recent research from the World Bank and elsewhere suggests that openness to trade was a vital ingredient in the transition of the former Central and Eastern European Countries (CEECs) that joined the EU in May 2004. Current EU association agreements in South East Europe indicate that future enlargements may need to accommodate the remaining former Yugoslav Republics as well as the existing candidate countries. This paper examines persistent concerns that trade openness in South East Europe generally, and the former Yugoslav Republics in particular, is much less advanced than it was for the former CEECs in the mid to late 1990s. In particular we examine the issue of whether the present network of bilateral trade arrangements put in place under the Stability Pact has had much effect in boosting trade integration and whether trade within the region is currently at or below its potential. Given the small size of many of the countries in the region, we find that trade patterns remain problematic. In some cases they are smaller than might be expected but in several cases there is an overdependence on trade with old Yugoslav neighbours. In view of this, we consider that current plans to extend the Stability Pact matrix of bilateral trade agreements into a pan-regional trade association are likely to be inadequate. A better option, and one more likely to have a more immediate effect, would be to extend the present Customs Union with Turkey to include trade with the entire South East European zone of countries linked to the EU.
Topic:
International Relations and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Eastern Europe, Yugoslavia, and Balkans

1582. Foreign Investment in the US (I): Disappearing in a black hole?

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The US international investment position today should in principle be equal to the sum of past current account balances (mostly deficits). However, this is by far not the case even taking into account the balancing item 'errors and omissions'. Between 1982 and 2004, the US has accumulated a grand total of around $4.5 trillion (thousand billion). (The sum of current account deficits has been about $1 trillion smaller than the amount of net sales of US assets to the rest of the world because of the anomaly in reinvested earning.) Despite this accumulation of deficits the US net international debtor position (IIP) has deteriorated 'only' by $2.7 billion (and is now estimated – at the end of 2004, end 2005 figures are not yet available for the US IIP – at 'only' around $2.5 trillion). This implies a total of 'unearned' gains to the US of around $1.8 trillion during 22 years. The quite detailed data available for a somewhat shorter period (1989-2004) show that only a very small part of this sum, around 10-20%, can be explained by exchange rate and stock market changes.</p
Topic:
International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1583. Foreign Investment in the US (II): BEING TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS?

Author:
Daniel Gros
Publication Date:
04-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The income account of the US balance of payments has so far remained in surplus because of a very large differential in reported earnings on direct investment – US firms seem to enjoy a much higher rate of return than foreign firms in the US. There is little difference in terms of the rate of dividend payments; the difference is due to what is called 'reinvested earnings' (earnings minus dividends). Foreign firms report almost no reinvested earnings on their direct investment in the US whereas US firms report substantial reinvested earnings from their direct investment abroad, on average over $100 billion more p.a. than foreign firms report on their US investment. This anomaly is probably due to the desire of foreign firms to minimise their US taxes, whereas US firms do not face tax liabilities if they report high foreign profits to the US authorities. The procedure used to generate the data for reinvested earnings thus has a built-in bias to improve the US current account and – over time – its international investment position. The true picture is likely to be much worse.</p
Topic:
International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States

1584. Ukraine and the European Neighbourhood Policy: Ensuring the Free Movement of Goods and Services

Author:
Olga Shumylo
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The negotiation of a regional trade agreement between the EU and Ukraine is the next significant step towards Ukraine's deeper integration with the West. Drawing on analyses of official and independent analytical materials and statistical data, this paper explores the form such an arrangement should take – namely, which of the existing models would be an appropriate model for EU-Ukraine trade relations: a Free Trade Agreement, a Customs Union or something along the lines of the European Economic Area Agreement.
Topic:
International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

1585. Moldova's Convergence with the Acquis - A Pro-Growth and Pro-Integration Strategy

Author:
Oxana Gutu
Publication Date:
03-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
The enlargement of the EU and the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) have revived the debate in the 'neighbourhood countries' around the need to converge legislation with EU internal rules and regulations, known as the acquis communautaire. The political incentive of accession to the EU, which has driven legal approximation in new EU member states, is missing for ENP countries. Yet, in the case of countries like Moldova, the cost of non-compliance is significant and translates into loss of existing export markets (e.g. in Romania) and the inability to expand into new markets (SEE countries and the EU). The situation is made still worse by a poor level of economic governance. As convergence with the acquis is a huge task, the key challenge for ENP countries is to determine the priorities, sequence and degree of legal approximation. This paper argues that the optimum degree and appropriate pace of convergence need to be driven by economic rationale and the development of the trade potential of the country. Thus, to secure benefits and avoid high costs for the economy, the legal approximation agenda will be moving along clearly identified economic integration scenarios, i.e. achieving a functioning market economy; taking full advantage of EU trade preferences (GSP and APTs), preparing for an FTA with the EU and, over a considerable number of years, gradually achieving a stake in the EU's Internal Market.
Topic:
International Relations and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Europe, Moldova, and Romania

1586. The Implications of China's Rise for Asia and Europe

Author:
Linda Jakobson
Publication Date:
05-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
China has in a very short time span embraced multilateral mechanisms to address a broad range of issues and avoided confrontation with the United States. Both stances have shaped Asian and European views of a rising China. At present, Asian and European leaders take China's word regarding its peaceful intentions as a rising power. However, Asian and European policy-makers tend to refrain from confronting China too strongly on issues sensitive to Beijing (poor implementation of intellectual property rights, disregard for human rights, etc). The more prosperous China grows, the less influence any other country will have over Beijing's policies. A rising China is a challenge to others because of its sheer size, its great need for imported energy, and the environmental degradation it causes due to its ongoing industrialization. The troubled relationship between China and Japan is one of increasing concern and could lead to aggravated tensions in East Asia.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, China, Europe, and Asia

1587. Urban Studies in Cairo, Egypt

Author:
Dominique Harre-Rogers
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Greater Cairo Region's population of about 19 million places it among the twenty largest cities in the world. The making of the 'polynucleated' urban region was fast. Restricted up to mid-20th century to what is now the downtown area, the medieval core and the ancient village of Gizah, the city's total built area quadrupled between 1945 and 1982 (El-Kadi 1987). With 4% annual growth in the 1960s-1970s, the city incorporated old suburbs and satellite towns (Maadi, Helwan, Heliopolis), spilled across the Nile and expanded north and west into the desert and the agricultural lands of the Nile Delta valley, swallowing several villages in the process.2 In the mid-1980s, the mega-city entered a new phase and population growth slowed significantly, falling below Egypt's national rate of growth
Topic:
International Relations and Development
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, and Egypt

1588. Ethnicity and Power in Contested Cities: the Historical Experience

Author:
A.C. Hepburn
Publication Date:
02-2006
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Cities are frequently seen as the cutting edge of human achievement, as cosmopolitan sites where new identities may develop and flourish. In this view, traditional barriers are eroded through proximity of living and working. But many modern cities are made up of communities that regard themselves or are regarded by others as distinct in terms of language, religious belief, skin color or culture. In this context, the question becomes "how have cities sought to mitigate their potential for dysfunctionality?" The rapidly growing British industrial cities of the nineteenth century, for instance, drew their populations mainly from nearby hinterlands, so that while the challenges of acculturation to urban living and the discipline of the factory may have been great, the challenge of acculturation to new neighbors was substantially reduced.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Civil Society, and Development

1589. Whatever Happened to Canada?

Author:
David N. Biette
Publication Date:
06-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Wilson Center
Abstract:
Recently an older acquaintance of mine, aware that I worked on Canadian issues, asked me, “What ever happened to Canada? We used to hear so much about what Canada did around the world and now we don't hear anything.”
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
North America

1590. The Open Method of Coordination as practice - A watershed in European education policy?

Author:
Åse Gornitzka
Publication Date:
12-2006
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Research Papers Archive
Abstract:
This paper asks whether the application of the Open Method of Coordination (OMC) represents a fundamental change in how cooperation takes place within education as a policy area at the European level. Based on a case study of a process that eventually would lead to the “Education and Training 2010” programme of the EU, the paper analyses how the OMC was turned into practice in European education policy. It argues that with the introduction of the OMC a new political space was created in this policy domain. The paper analyses the practices of the OMC in terms of the actors and roles that have been activated at the European level, the role of OMC education in a larger order, and its operative dynamics. The different elements of OMC show varying degrees of institutionalisation. Parts of this process have been experimental, especially as a venue of policy learning and peer reviewing. On the other hand the attention and agenda of EU institutions involved in education policy have been coordinated over time through the routines established around the goals and objectives of the OMC process. The use and development of indicators have also become well established as one of the main components of European cooperation in this field.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Education
Political Geography:
Europe