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432. Measuring the Competitive Threat from China
- Author:
- Rhys Jenkins
- Publication Date:
- 02-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- In recent years there has been a growing literature that analyses the threat which Chinese exports pose to the exports of other developing countries. The paper provides a critique of the standard measures of export similarity which have been used to estimate the threat from China in these studies. Two alternative indices, the static and the dynamic index of competitive threat, are developed and estimated for 18 developing countries and compared with estimates for the standard measures. It is shown that the latter tend to underestimate the extent to which countries are threatened by China. They also distort both the rankings of countries according to the extent to which they face competition from China and the direction of change in the competitive threat over time.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
433. The Shape of the World to Come
- Author:
- Laurent Cohen-Tanugi
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Book
- Institution:
- Columbia University Press
- Abstract:
- Contrary to an optimistic vision of a world "flattened" by the virtues of globalization, the sustainability and positive outcomes of economic and political homogenization are far from guaranteed. For better and for worse, globalization has become the most powerful force shaping the world's geopolitical landscape, whether it has meant integration or fragmentation, peace or war. The future partly depends on how new economic giants such as China, India, and others make use of their power. It also depends on how well Western democracies can preserve their tenuous hold on leadership, cohesion, and the pursuit of the common good. Offering the most comprehensive analysis of world politics to date, Laurent Cohen-Tanugi takes on globalization's cheerleaders and detractors, who, in their narrow focus, have failed to recognize the full extent to which globalization has become a geopolitical phenomenon. Offering an interpretative framework for thought and action, Cohen-Tanugi suggests how we should approach our new "multipolar" world—a world that is anything but the balanced and harmonious system many welcomed as a desirable alternative to the "American Empire."
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
434. State Fragility: Concept and Measurement
- Author:
- Mark McGillivray and Mina Baliamoune-Lutz
- Publication Date:
- 04-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United Nations University
- Abstract:
- The international donor community has grave concerns about the prospects for poverty reduction in what it terms fragile states. A state is classified as fragile if its country policy and institutional assessment (CPIA) score falls below a particular threshold. Recognizing that all states are fragile to varying degrees, this paper questions the method used by the international community to deem a country fragile. This paper develops a framework that uses fuzzy-set theory to deem a country as fragile. Fuzzy sets allow for gradual transition from one state to another while also allowing one to incorporate rules and goals, and hence are more appropriate for measuring outcomes that are ambiguous. Such ambiguity is an inherent characteristic of cross-country fragility classifications. The paper applies its framework to 76 low-income countries, for which the CPIA data are publicly available. The fragile state group that this framework provides is compared to that which the international donor community has constructed.
- Topic:
- Development and International Political Economy
435. How Long Can the Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Deficit Be Sustained?
- Author:
- Steven B. Kamin, Carol C. Bertaut, and Charles P. Thomas
- Publication Date:
- 07-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper addresses three questions about the prospects for the U.S. current account deficit. Is it sustainable in the long term? If not, how long will it take for measures of external debt and debt service to reach levels that could prompt some pullback by global investors? And if and when such levels are breached, how readily would asset prices respond and the current account start to narrow?
- Topic:
- Economics, Foreign Exchange, Government, International Political Economy, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
436. Policy Liberalization and FDI Growth, 1982 to 2006
- Author:
- Matthew Adler and Gary Clyde Hufbauer
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Over the last three decades the global economy has expanded in a remarkable fashion. While nominal world GDP has increased four times, world bilateral trade flows have grown more than six-fold, and the stock of foreign direct investment (FDI) has grown by roughly 20 times since 1980. The sources of global trade and investment growth are well known—general economic expansion, policy liberalization, and better communications and technology—but the impact of each source is unclear. In this paper we attempt to uncover the contribution of policy liberalization to the rising ratios of US inward and outward FDI stocks to GDP over the last three decades.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- United States
437. Saakashvili Pulled the Trigger: Turkey between Russia and Georgia
- Author:
- Hasan Ali Karasar
- Publication Date:
- 08-2008
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- Turkey has been involved, historically and demographically, with many of the regions of “frozen conflict” in post-Soviet space. At this point, one might consider the position of Turkey as being at the epicenter of Euro-Atlantic and Russian extremes concerning the frozen conflicts. Georgia, since 1991, has been considered a valuable “strategic partner” by Turkey for several reasons. Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan's Caucasus Pact idea is a good opportunity to create an inclusive (Russia, Turkey, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan) new foreign policy approach at this stage. This approach should be merged with the representation of all the frozen or unfrozen conflict areas, peoples, ethnic groups and regions included under the roof of such an alliance.
- Topic:
- NATO and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia
438. Special Report No. 204: Using Quantitative and Qualitative Models to Forecast Instability
- Author:
- Jack A. Goldstone
- Publication Date:
- 03-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Preventing violent conflict requires early warning of likely crises so that preventive actions can be planned and taken before the onset of mass violence. For most of the post–World War II period, policymakers and intelligence agencies have relied on experts to make qualitative judgments regarding the risk of instability or violent changes in their areas of study. Yet the inability of such experts to adequately predict major events has led to efforts to use social and analytical tools to create more “scientific” forecasts of political crises. The advent of quantitative forecasting models that give early warning of the onset of political instability offers the prospect of major advances in the accuracy of forecasting over traditional qualitative methods. Because certain models have a demonstrated accuracy of over 80 percent in early identification of political crises, some have questioned whether such models should replace traditional qualitative analysis. While these quantitative forecasting methods should move to the foreground and play a key role in developing early warning tools, this does not mean that traditional qualitative analysis is dispensable. The best results for early warning are most likely obtained by the judicious combination of quantitative analysis based on forecasting models with qualitative analysis that rests on explicit causal relationships and precise forecasts of its own. Policymakers and analysts should insist on a multiple-method approach, which has greater forecasting power than either the quantitative or qualitative method alone. In this way, political instability forecasting is likely to make its largest advance over earlier practices.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, and International Political Economy
439. Special Report No. 205: Why We Should Still Study the Cuban Missile Crisis
- Author:
- Michael Dobbs
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Some scholars have questioned the utility of studying the Cuban missile crisis as a model for executive decision making during times of crisis, arguing that it offers little guidance for policymakers today. Many accounts of the missile crisis are incomplete, inaccurate, and too narrowly focused on the “rational actors” at the center of the drama while overlooking the “irrational actors.” Nonetheless, the Cuban missile crisis remains the best-documented study of presidential decision making at a time of supreme national danger. It offers policymakers and students of history unique insights into the interplay between the debates in the Oval Office and fast-moving events in the rest of the world. For decades, the Cuban missile crisis has been studied and analyzed as a case study in presidential power and crisis management. It is better understood as an example of the limits of presidential power and the haphazard returns of crisis management. The missile crisis illustrates the sometimes pivotal role of personality in politics. Had someone else been president in October 1962, the outcome could have been very different.
- Topic:
- Cold War, International Political Economy, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Cuba
440. After the Summit: Long-Term Consequences for NATO
- Author:
- Karl-Heinz Kamp
- Publication Date:
- 06-2008
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- Weeks after the NATO summit in Bucharest there is an ongoing debate in academic circles and in the media on whether the meeting of the heads of states and government was a success or a failure. Some editorials express the disappointment of their authors with the allegedly meager results of the top level meeting in the Romanian capital. Decisions not taken were seen as proof of a divided NATO. Others acclaim the summit and saw those points the Alliance agreed upon as another proof of NATO's ability to find consensus on major steps in its evolution.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Organization, and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Romania