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1651. Ending Dependence: Hard Choices for Oil-Exporting States

Author:
John V Mitchell and Paul Stevens
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Since 2003, countries whose economies depend on the export of oil and gas have enjoyed a surge of revenue driven by rising oil prices and, in some countries, rising export volumes. The press has captured petroleum-fuelled prosperity in images of futuristic construction plans and the rocketing assets of sovereign wealth funds. However, this obscures important differences among oil and gas exporters in terms of reserves size and social development challenges. Based on a major study of twelve hydrocarbon-exporting countries, this report shows that the boom does not guarantee economic sustainability for these countries, most of which face hard policy choices over domestic consumption, development spending and rates of economic growth. The report estimates the timeframes these countries have in which to make the necessary changes and examine their prospects for success given the existing human, institutional and technical capacity, competitive advantages, infrastructure and access to capital.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Oil, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East

1652. Piracy in Somalia: Threatening Global Trade, Feeding Local Wars

Author:
Roger Middleton
Publication Date:
10-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Piracy off the coast of Somalia has more than doubled in 2008; so far over 60 ships have been attacked. Pirates are regularly demanding and receiving million-dollar ransom payments and are becoming more aggressive and assertive. The international community must be aware of the danger that Somali pirates could become agents of international terrorist networks. Already money from ransoms is helping to pay for the war in Somalia, including funds to the US terror-listed Al-Shabaab. The high level of piracy is making aid deliveries to drought-stricken Somalia ever more difficult and costly. The World Food Programme has already been forced to temporarily suspend food deliveries. Canada is now escorting WFP deliveries but there are no plans in place to replace their escort when it finishes later this year. The danger and cost of piracy (insurance premiums for the Gulf of Aden have increased tenfold) mean that shipping could be forced to avoid the Gulf of Aden/Suez Canal and divert around the Cape of Good Hope. This would add considerably to the costs of manufactured goods and oil from Asia and the Middle East. At a time of high inflationary pressures, this should be of grave concern. Piracy could cause a major environmental disaster in the Gulf of Aden if a tanker is sunk or run aground or set on fire. The use of ever more powerful weaponry makes this increasingly likely. There are a number of options for the international community but ignoring the problem is not one of them. It must ensure that WFP deliveries are protected and that gaps in supply do not occur.
Topic:
Security, Crime, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Africa and Somalia

1653. Educational Exchange between the United States and China

Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute of International Education
Abstract:
Few countries have seen such rapid economic and educational change in so short a time period as China. Since 1978, when Deng Xiaoping began to send students and scholars to study abroad in large numbers as part of his broad modernization efforts, some 800,000 Chinese students and scholars have studied outside their home country. These numbers make China the overall largest supplier of international students to countries around the world over the past decade. The liberalization of the education sector, which accompanied China's entry into the World Trade Organization in 2001, has also permitted more students from outside China to enter the Chinese educational system. The number of Americans studying abroad in China increased by over 500% in the past ten years, making China one of the top 10 study abroad destination countries for U.S. students, and one of the top 10 host countries for all internationally mobile students.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Education, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States and China

1654. Telling the Story: Documentation Lessons for Afghanistan from the Cambodian Experience

Author:
Scott Worden and Rachel Ray Steele
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Documentation centers dedicated to researching, recording, archiving and protecting information related to mass crimes and human rights abuse conflict have been organized in countries as diverse as Cambodia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guatemala and Iraq. Their work is an integral part of a transition from an authoritarian regime or war to sustainable peace. Victims want to tell what happened to them, be acknowledged, and know how and why atrocities occurred. Moreover, an accurate accounting of past crimes applies pressure to remove perpetrators from power and raises awareness toward preventing future abuse.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, War, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Central Asia, Asia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Cambodia, Guatemala, and Southeast Asia

1655. Clean Coal: U.S.-China Cooperation in Energy Security

Author:
David Wendt
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
As major consumers of the world's energy resources, the United States and China are in dire need of secure energy solutions that can keep pace with their large appetites for energy. Enter coal. Both countries possess abundant coal reserves measured in the hundreds of billions of tons. But the approach to coal policy has been one of favoring cheap extraction rather than taking into serious consideration the societal costs of coal. For the United States, coal represents a major source of electrical power—and a major source of pollution. In China, the accessibility of coal has overtaken the environmental and health arguments against its widespread use. China uses more coal than the United States and European Union combined. The damaging side effects of coal mining and consumption have been overlooked in the face of easy availability and undeveloped or less accessible alternatives. In the current context of global energy uncertainty, coal has been forgiven much.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Treaties and Agreements, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
United States and China

1656. Foreword: Dynamics of Dissent

Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Today's methods of dissent-sometimes peaceful, often violent, and usually controversial-take many forms in the age-old quest for social and political change. Globalization has become an ever-present force of transformation, affecting how opposition to the status quo arises and how people express their opposition. Technology and trade liberalization provide citizens with immediate access to information that shapes how they voice their dissent. At the same time, traditional factors-ethnic, economic, religious-continue to be a source of tension, provoking dissent in numerous ways. This Forum examines the evolving dynamics of contemporary dissent. While keeping an eye on dissent's consistent themes, such as the exclusion of minorities and debates over non-violent tactics, this Forum also explores the effects of new forces, from the internet to the WTO, on how people experience and confront marginalization. Examining the dynamics of dissent allows us to better understand how changes will continue to unfold as our diverse world becomes ever more integrated.
Topic:
Civil Society, Economics, Globalization, Government, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
London

1657. Who Are the People? Why Ethnic Politics Matter

Author:
James Mabry
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
In the first decade of the twenty-first century, the idea of mass mobilization in order to redirect government is axiomatic. If the environment is degraded, then the solution is to educate and organize concerned citizens. The same can be said of gender inequality, racial prejudice, or, in the form of labor movements, class disparity. Yet of all the challenges a society may launch at its state, the most serious are not those that challenge a particular policy or seek redress of a single social issue, but those that challenge the legitimacy of the state itself. This begs the question: what makes a state legitimate or illegitimate? The short answer is whether or not the state represents the will of the people. But the long answer demands an answer to another question: who are the people? In the global arena, it is implicit that different peoples are different nations, and that different nations have different states. If there is disagreement over the composition of a particular nation, there is by extension disagreement over the composition of the state. If the raison d'etre of the state itself is contentious, this can upset the stability of said state, and, by extension, may threaten the equilibrium of international relations.
Topic:
Civil Society, Globalization, Government, and International Affairs

1658. Airpower: The Flip Side of COIN

Author:
Daniel F. Baltrusaitis
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
Despite the success of the U.S. military in conventional warfare, recent experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan have illustrated the challenges of pursuing a counter-insurgent strategy against “asymmetric threats” such as improvised explosive devices or suicide bombers. The “asymmetric” strategy often adopted by insurgents allows a relatively weak for ce to incapacitate a stronger one by exploiting the stronger force's vulnera-bilities rather than meeting it head-on in conventional com-bat. Our current wars have focused national attention on the ability of the Army and Marine Corps to cope with this “asymmetric” environment, yet the influence of airpower has been conspicuously missing from the debate. Even the core military doctrine for counterinsurgency, or COIN, fails to acknowledge the benefits that airpower can play against these asymmetric threats. The Army and Marine Corps recently released Field Manual (FM) 3-24, Counterinsurgency (designated by the Marine Corps as Warfighting Publication 3-33.5), an impressive and influential 282-page document that skillfully addresses many difficult COIN issues. This doctrine is viewed as the overall plan for COIN operations in Iraq, and will likely become the centerpiece of new joint COIN doctrine that will guide all the armed services. Regrettably, this impressive document fails to inform the COIN strategist, and policymakers, on the influence of highly integrated joint COIN strategy. Rather, it treats the influence of airpower as an adjunct capability confined to a short, five-page annex of “supplemental information.” By failing to integrate the full potential of today's airpower capabilities and by focusing almost exclusively on only the ground dimension, FM 3-24 falls short of offering U.S. decisionmakers a pragmatic, joint solution for the challenge of COIN. The current doctrine fails to integrate all aspects of military power that may be implemented for the most effective counterinsurgency campaign. By failing to integrate airpower (or seapower) into this cornerstone doctrine document, U.S. and coalition forces risk planning operations in a dis-jointed fashion where planners do not understand the strengths and weaknesses of service capabilities. This paper examines the influence of airpower on COIN strategy and articulates the benefits of an integrated joint COIN doctrine to combat effectively the insurgents in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Topic:
Civil Society, Globalization, Government, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

1659. The Tigers Abroad: How the LTTE Diaspora Supports the Conflict in Sti Lanka

Author:
Peter Chalk
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
An integral part of the LTTE support structure is the Sri Lankan Tamil Diaspora, which serves as a critical lifeline by providing international political recognition and monetary support.
Topic:
Civil Society, Globalization, Government, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Sri Lanka

1660. Mothers, Bombers, Beauty Queens: Chechen Women's Roles in Russo-Chechen Conflict

Author:
Francine Banner
Publication Date:
06-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Institution:
Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
Abstract:
The bodies of Chechen women symbolize the dichotomy of tradition and modernity in Chechen national identity.
Topic:
Civil Society, Globalization, Government, and International Affairs