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42. November 2018 Issue
- Author:
- Ali Soufan, Paul Cruickshank, Nuno Tiago Pinto, Damon Mehl, and Michael Munoz
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- In our cover article, Ali Soufan profiles Major General Qassem Soleimani, the long-serving head of Iran’s Quds Force who the U.S. government has accused, among other things, of support for terrorism and involvement in a 2011 plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States. Soufan outlines how Soleimani has masterminded Tehran’s efforts to project its power across the Middle East using a unique strategy of blending militant and state power, built in part on the model of Hezbollah in Lebanon. Soufan argues that with nationalist sentiment on the rise in Iran in the wake of the U.S. withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and the ongoing regional tussle with Saudi Arabia, Soleimani’s popularity would make him the natural front-runner if Iran chooses to adopt a military presidency. Our interview is with Patrick Skinner who during the decade after 9/11 worked in counterterrorism for the CIA in Afghanistan and Iraq. Last year, he began working as a police officer in his hometown of Savannah, Georgia, in an effort to make a difference closer to home. Skinner reflects on how lessons learned from his time as a CIA case officer and as a local police officer could apply to counterterrorism and counterinsurgency strategy and tactics overseas. Drawing on thousands of pages of judicial documents and investigative files, Nuno Pinto outlines the alleged key role played by two Portugal-based extremists in a transnational Islamic State network whose alleged attack plans were thwarted by arrests in Strasbourg and Marseille in November 2016. The case raises concerns that European countries in which security services are less geared up to confront terrorist activity are being used as logistical hubs by jihadi terrorists. In the wake of the Islamic State’s deadly attack on Western tourists in Tajikistan in July 2018, Damon Mehl examines the threat the group poses to the country. With the Islamic State having lost almost all of its territory in Syria and Iraq, Michael Munoz looks at how the group’s propaganda efforts may evolve in the future.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, Propaganda, and Qassem Soleimani
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, Europe, Iran, Middle East, Tajikistan, France, and Portugal
43. Electoral Rights and Intellectual Disability: Considerations de lege lata
- Author:
- Małgorzata Babula
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Polish Political Science Yearbook
- Institution:
- Polish Political Science Association (PPSA)
- Abstract:
- The Constitution of the Republic of Poland mentions as one of the principles of electoral law its universality. This means that anyone who meets the requirements of law is entitled to vote. The admissibility of exclusions from this principle is also expressly defined by the law. One of the limitations in the exercise of electoral rights is an intellectual disability resulting in the incapacity of the individual. Meanwhile, Poland’s international obligations resulting e.g. from the ratification of the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabili- ties provides with a necessity of a deeper reflection on the present solutions. The ratification by Poland of the UN Convention has stimulated discussion on the political rights of people with intellectual disabilities, extending the field of debate on the legitimacy of the current form of institution of incapacitation. The aim of this article is to reflect on the current solu- tions in the exercise of electoral rights by people affected by intellectual disability but not being incapacitated.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Elections, Constitution, Discrimination, Disability, and Political Rights
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Eastern Europe, Poland, and Central Europe
44. “The Best Possible Sanction:” Kim Jong-un and the Quest for Credible Nuclear Deterrence
- Author:
- Gary J. Sampson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- International Journal of Korean Studies
- Institution:
- International Council on Korean Studies
- Abstract:
- In 2017, North Korea under Kim Jong-un has made significant strides toward the capabilities needed for a credible nuclear deterrent. This article analyzes the most recent achievements of the North Korean nuclear weapons program, including its September 2017 nuclear test and its three long-range missile tests in the latter half of 2017. Observers should not discount Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons and long-range missiles. However, other capabilities such as intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance and targeting require further development to achieve the full range of capabilities associated with a credible nuclear deterrent. Because of the high costs associated with the development of robust strategic intelligence and targeting capabilities, Pyongyang may be willing to settle for lower levels of capability in these areas, which may still be sufficient to guide nuclear attacks. As a result, policymakers must move to a bargaining strategy that acknowledges the reality of North Korea’s nuclear capability, marking a significant policy shift among regional allies. Pyongyang’s long-held desire to drive a wedge between the U.S. and its regional allies may be coming to fruition. Kim Jong-un has shrewdly played his hand from a position of weakness and succeeded where many others failed—a high-risk path upon which he still walks. China’s minimum credible nuclear deterrent may be a model for Kim Jong-un’s development of North Korean nuclear capability.
- Topic:
- Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Surveillance, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America
45. Monitoring Security Services. A Guide for Ombuds Institutions
- Author:
- Nazli Yildirim Schierkolk
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- This Series of Monitoring Products is designed to facilitate the work of National Human Rights (Ombuds) Institutions on monitoring the security sector. The series provides guidance on relevant best practices and may also be used for relevant capacity development trainings. DCAF has also developed a number of products to assist Ombuds institutions on both broad and highly specific oversight and policy challenges, particularly in terms of gender equality and human rights monitoring within the armed forces.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, Intelligence, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Georgia and Global Focus
46. Conference Proceedings 3: Governance and Reform of State Security Services
- Author:
- Philipp H. Fluri and Oleksiy Melnyk
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- This publication offers the proceedings of the Conference III “Governance and Reform of State Security Services: Best Practices”. Following the findings of the previous two conferences, participants elaborated current challenges related to reforms of the State Security Agencies and r ole of democratic institutions in Ukrainian Security Sector Governance. In addition to identifica- tion of the reform challenges and priorities, one of the main objectives was to propose solutions based on lessons learned and international best practices relevant to Ukrainian realities. This publication offers presentations of the key speakers and selected remarks during Q&A sessions. General assessments, conclusions and proposals are those of the participants and do not necessarily coincide with the positions of DCAF, the Razumkov Centre or the official position of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands. Publication was made possible in the framework of the joint DCAF-Razumkov Centre Project “Monitoring Ukraine’s Security Governance Challenges” sponsored by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands.
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, National Security, Governance, Legislation, and Oversight
- Political Geography:
- Ukraine and Global Focus
47. Key Issues and Policy Recommendations, Conference 3
- Author:
- Philipp H. Fluri, Oleksiy Melnyk, and Nazli Yildirim
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- This publication offers the Key Issues and Policy Recommendations based on the results of the Third International Conference “Governance and Reform of State Security Services: Best Practices”. Conference Three – the third in a series of eight – focused exclusively on the SSU reform process; aiming to unpack the issues raised during the first two events: the SSU’s military status, pre-trial investigation powers and its oversight and accountability. Building on the findings and recommenda- tions of the previous conferences, this Conference aimed to identify current reform priorities, discuss relevant European good practices and assess capacity development needs for intelligence governance in Ukraine.
- Topic:
- Security, Intelligence, Legislation, Accountability, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
48. Intelligence Services: Roles and responsibilities in good security sector governance
- Author:
- Fairlie Chappuis and Ronja Harder
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This SSR Backgrounder explains the roles and responsibilities of intelligence services in good security sector governance (SSG). Intelligence services perform an essential security function by providing governments with timely and relevant information necessary to protect the security of states and their societies. Applying the principles of good SSG to intelligence services makes them both effective and accountable within a framework of democratic governance, the rule of law and respect for human rights. This SSR Backgrounder answers the following questions: What are intelligence services? What do intelligence services do? How is intelligence produced? What intrusive legal powers do intelligence services hold? How can intelligence services comply with good security sector governance? How does security sector reform benefit intelligence services? How can secrecy be made compatible with good governance? What is international intelligence cooperation?
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, Intelligence, Governance, and Rule of Law
- Political Geography:
- Geneva and Global Focus
49. Intelligence Oversight: Ensuring accountable intelligence within a framework of democratic governance
- Author:
- Ronja Harder
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This SSR Backgrounder explains how the principles of democratic control and oversight can be applied to intelligence services. Oversight of intelligence matters, because intelligence services can pose a threat to democratic governance, the rule of law and human rights, even while acting in the public interest. Applying the principle of good security sector governance through a system of democratic control and oversight ensures intelligence services are both effective and accountable while providing security for the state and for its people. This SSR Backgrounder answers the following questions: Why is democratic oversight of intelligence important? How does democratic oversight of intelligence work? What are typical challenges for democratic oversight of intelligence? How does internal control of intelligence contribute to good governance? How does executive control of intelligence contribute to good governance? What role does parliament play in democratic oversight of intelligence? How is the justice system involved in the control and oversight of intelligence? How can public oversight apply to intelligence?
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Intelligence, Governance, and Law Enforcement
- Political Geography:
- Geneva, Europe, and Global Focus
50. The Manchester Attack: Assessing Threats to Major Events and Soft Targets
- Author:
- The Soufan Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Soufan Group
- Abstract:
- From Paris to Istanbul, sports and entertainment venues, to include stadiums, convention centers and arenas – often easily accessed and filled with large groups of people – have become increasingly attractive targets. While there is a history of targeting stadiums around the world, the increased prevalence of these attacks, along with new tactics, may forecast future activity that requires both public and private sector stakeholders to examine existing efforts and implement new measures to enhance safety and security
- Topic:
- Intelligence and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Britain