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131. Why has Swedish Inflation been Persistently Low?

Author:
Felix Hufner
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development
Abstract:
Average inflation in Sweden has been one of the lowest among European countries since the mid- 1990s. Three supply-side factors help to explain this phenomenon, all related in some sense to increased global integration. First, a shift towards imports from low-cost producing countries has resulted in falling import prices. Second, deregulation and increased product market competition with foreign companies entering the market has led to price falls in some sectors, notably in retailing. Third, wage growth has lagged productivity and kept unit labour costs down. This paper reviews these factors and analyzes the policy options for the central bank.
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, Monetary Policy, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Europe, Sweden, and Scandinavia

132. The Conquest of Worldwide Inflation: Currency Competition and Its Implications for Interest Rates and the Yield Curve

Author:
Randall S. Kroszner
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In the United States and in virtually every country around the world, inflation has declined, and in most countries dramatically so. In addition, the volatility of inflation and expectations of future inflation have also fallen significantly. I will call these changes experienced around the globe the conquest of worldwide inflation. I will begin by providing a few facts about the substantial improvement of inflation during roughly the past decade compared with the quarter century that preceded it. I will then try to understand why this remarkable decline in inflation has taken place. In particular, I argue that globalization, deregulation, and financial innovation, in part spurred by experiences of high inflation in the 1980s, have fostered currency competition that has led to improved central bank performance and, hence, the recent conquest of worldwide inflation. Friedrich Hayek (1976) had long ago advocated permitting greater competition among currencies, arguing that there would be a race to the top rather than a race to the bottom. Regardless of what one might think of Hayek’s policy proposals, technological change in a globalized and competitive marketplace, I believe, has increased competition among currencies issued by central banks.
Topic:
Economy, Inflation, Interest Rates, Currency, and Economic Competition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

133. Independent Central Banks: New and Old

Author:
John H. Wood
Publication Date:
10-2006
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
In the 1990s, several governments gave their central banks operational independence to pursue low inflation, and steps were taken to make the new monetary policy more credible by making it more transparent (Bernanke et al. 1999). The governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is subject to dismissal if inflation is outside the assigned range. In the United Kingdom, if inflation misses the target by more than 1 percentage point, the governor must explain publicly why the divergence occurred and what steps the Bank of England is taking to deal with it. The new transparency “facilitates public understanding of monetary policy and increases the incentives for the central bank to pursue the announced goals of monetary policy” (Svensson 1999: 631–32). Accountability is increased, indeed made possible, by the choice of a unique objective, which implies “a stronger commitment to a systematic and rational optimizing monetary policy than other monetary policy regimes” (p. 608).
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Inflation, and Central Bank
Political Geography:
England and United States of America

134. Monetary Credibility, Inflation, and Economic Growth

Author:
Roger W. Ferguson Jr.
Publication Date:
07-2006
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
By now it must be universally agreed that low and stable inflation is a primary and essential goal for monetary policy, in large part because we believe it brings stability to financial systems and fosters sustainable economic growth over the longer run. In pursuit of this goal, central banks can report some success. According to the 2005 World Economic Outlook from the International Monetary Fund (IMF 2005), consumer price inflation in the advanced economies over the decade beginning in 1997 looks set to come in at an average annual rate of less than 2 percent, down from 3.5 percent for the previous 10 years. The IMF figures for the United States show a smaller but still substantial decline in headline inflation, from about 3.75 percent to 2.5 percent. The drop in inflation for the nonindustrial economies has been more striking, with average inflation falling from double to single digits.1 As someone who started work as a monetary policymaker in 1997, I am happy to acknowledge the accomplishments of many policymakers at the Federal Reserve and in other central banks around the world. Thanks to their success in fighting inflation, the central banking profession enjoys a very high standing. And as a related matter, we might say that monetary credibility, which I would define as the perception in the private sector that central banks will do what it takes to keep inflation under control, is also quite high. This credibility is hard won, however, and can be easily lost. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at its November 1, 2005, meeting increased the federal funds rate 25 basis points, to 4 percent, and observed: The cumulative rise in energy and other costs has the potential to add to inflation pressures; however, core inflation has been relatively low in recent months and longer-term inflation expectations remain contained. . . . With underlying inflation expected to be contained, the Committee believes that policy accommodation can be removed at a pace that is likely to be measured. Nonetheless, the Committee will respond to changes in economic prospects as needed to fulfill its obligation to maintain price stability [FOMC 2005]. Unfortunately, however, the story over the past 20 years is not so uniformly positive for growth. Again according to IMF figures, growth among the nonindustrial economies appears to have increased to about 5.25 percent in the decade beginning in 1997, compared with growth of 3.75 percent in the previous 10 years. Growth in the United States has also moved slightly higher over the two periods, from 3 percent to 3.25 percent. However, growth in the other industrial economies has softened, to less than 2.5 percent in the recent decade from more than 3 percent in the previous one. This decline reflects slowing in some of the larger economies—Japan, Germany, Italy, and the Netherlands—as well as the effect of the Asian crisis in 1997 on newly industrialized Asian economies.2 To me, it is axiomatic that monetary credibility, by reducing the level and variability of inflation, lays the foundations for stronger and more sustained economic growth. In this article, I want to discuss anecdotal and academic evidence for the relationship between monetary policy credibility and economic growth and to do so in two segments: first, the link between monetary policy credibility and inflation performance and, second, the link
Topic:
Monetary Policy, Economic Growth, Inflation, IMF, and Credibility
Political Geography:
Global Focus

135. Slow Passthrough Around the World: A New Import for Developing Countries?

Author:
Jeffrey Frankel, David Parsley, and Shang-Jin Wei
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
Developing countries traditionally experience passthrough of exchange rate changes that is greater and more rapid than high-income countries experience. This is true equally of the determination of prices of imported goods, prices of local competitors’ products, and the general CPI. But developing countries in the 1990s experienced a rapid downward trend in the degree of passthrough and speed of adjustment, more so than did high-income countries. As a consequence, slow and incomplete passthrough is no longer exclusively a luxury of industrial countries. Using a new data set -- prices of eight narrowly defined brand commodities, observed in 76 countries -- we find empirical support for some of the factors that have been hypothesized in the literature, but not for others. Significant determinants of the passthrough coefficient include per capita incomes, bilateral distance, tariffs, country size, wages, long-term inflation, and long-term exchange rate variability. Some of these factors changed during the 1990s. Part (and only part) of the downward trend in passthrough to imported goods prices, and in turn to competitors’ prices and the CPI, can be explained by changes in the monetary environment – including a fall in long-term inflation. Real wages work to reduce passthrough to competitors’ prices and the CPI, confirming the hypothesized role of distribution and retail costs in pricing to market. Rising distribution costs, due perhaps to the Balassa-Samuelson-Baumol effect, could contribute to the decline in the passthrough coefficient in some developing countries.
Topic:
Economics, Markets, Developing World, Tariffs, Exchange Rate Policy, and Inflation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

136. The Rational Basis of Wage Determination in Regimes of High Inflation

Author:
Edward J. Amadeo
Publication Date:
05-1993
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
In this paper we address the logic of wage determination in a regime of high and accelerating inflation, and the rational basis of 'overindexation' of wages. We discuss the incentives and costs of wage overindexation to the workers, and the determination of the 'optimal' level of wage adjustment. We argue that the degree of overindexation is likely to increase as negotiations become more centralized at the industry level. However, at near-national levels of wage negotiation, the incentives to overindex become much smaller. We also argue that increasing uncertainty over the future path of inflation tends to increase the degree of indexation of wages.
Topic:
Development, Labor Issues, Economic Growth, Inflation, and Wages
Political Geography:
South America