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291. Development Assistance and Conflict in Sri Lanka: Lessons from the Eastern Province

Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Violence, political instability and the government's reluctance to devolve power or resources to the fledgling provincial council are undermining ambitious plans for developing Sri Lanka's Eastern Province. The east continues to face obstacles to economic and political progress and offers lessons for development agencies and foreign donors considering expanding their work into newly won areas in the Northern Province. While there is still potential for progress in the east, it remains far from being the model of democratisation and post conflict reconstruction that the government claims. Donors should adopt a more coordinated set of policies for the war-damaged areas of Sri Lanka, emphasising civilian protection, increased monitoring of the effects of aid on conflict dynamics and collective advocacy with the government at the highest levels.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Development, Humanitarian Aid, and War
Political Geography:
South Asia and Sri Lanka

292. AIDS Treatment in South Asia: Equity and Efficiency Arguments for Shouldering the Fiscal Burden When Prevalence Rates Are Low

Author:
Mead Over
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The slower spread of AIDS in South Asian countries, combined with the fact that most South Asian countries have higher per capita incomes than the most severely affected countries of other regions imply that the various impacts of the disease will be smaller in South Asia than in the worst affected countries in other regions. While justified with respect to the impact of the disease on economic output, on poverty, or on orphanhood, this conclusion does not follow with respect to the health sector, where the relatively minor public role in health care delivery and the entrepreneurial and heterogeneous private health and pharmaceutical sectors combine to magnify the potential impact of the epidemic.
Topic:
Health and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
South Asia and Asia

293. Rice Crisis Forensics: How Asian Governments Carelessly Set the World Rice Market on Fire

Author:
Tom Slayton
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The world rice market was aflame last spring and for several months it looked as if the trading edifice that had exhibited such resilience over the last two decades was going to burn to the ground. World prices trebled within less than four months and reached a 30- year inflation-adjusted high. Many market observers thought the previous record set in 1974 would soon be toast. The fire was man-made, not the result of natural developments. While the governments in India, Vietnam, and the Philippines did not to set the world market on fire, that was the unintended result of their actions which threatened both innocent bystanders (low-income rice importers as far away as Africa and Latin America) and, ultimately, poor rice consumers at home. This paper describes what sparked the fire and the accelerants that made a bad situation nearly catastrophic. Fortuitously, when the flames were raging at peak intensity, rain clouds appeared, the winds [market psychology] shifted, and conditions on the ground improved, allowing the fire to die down. It remains to be seen, however, if the trading edifice has been seriously undermined by the actions of decision makers in several key Asian rice exporting and importing countries. In describing the cascading negative effects of these seemingly rational domestic policies, this paper aims to help policy makers in the rice exporting and importing nations to avoid a repeat of the disastrous price spike of 2008.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Health, Humanitarian Aid, Markets, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Africa, India, Asia, and Latin America

294. Coping with Rising Food Prices: Policy Dilemmas in the Developing World

Author:
Nora Lustig
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
Rising food prices cause considerable policy dilemmas for developing country governments. Letting domestic prices adjust to reflect the full change in international prices generates inflationary pressures and causes severe hardship for poor households lacking access to social safety nets. Alternatively, governments can use food subsidies or export restrictions to stabilize domestic prices, yet this exacerbates global food price increases and undermines a rules-based trading system. The recent episode shows that many countries chose to shift the burden of adjustment back to international markets. The use of corn and oilseed for the production of biofuel will result in a recurrence of such episodes in the foreseeable future.
Topic:
Agriculture, Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Markets

295. The End of ODA: Death and Rebirth of a Global Public Policy

Author:
Jean-Michel Severino and Olivier Ray
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The world of international development assistance is undergoing three concomitant revolutions, which concur to the emergence of a truly global policy. First, it is living through a diversification of the goals it is asked to pursue: to its traditional objective of ushering convergence between less and more developed economies have progressively been adjoined those of financing access to essential services and protecting global public goods. Secondly, faced with this new array of challenges, the world of development aid has demonstrated an impressive capacity to increase the number and diversity of its players, generating a governance conundrum for this eminently fragmented global policy. Thirdly, the instruments used by this expanding array of actors to achieve a broader range of policy objectives have themselves mushroomed, in the wake of innovations in mainstream financial markets. Yet surprisingly, this triple revolution in goals, actors and tools has not yet impacted the way we measure both the financial volumes dedicated to this emerging global policy nor the concrete impacts it aims to achieve. This paper argues for the need to move from the conventional measure of Official Development Assistance to the construction of clearer benchmarks for what ultimately matters: resources and results that concur to 21st century international development.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Post Colonialism, Poverty, and Third World

296. Estimating Fully Observed Recursive Mixed-Process Models with cmp

Author:
David Roodman
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
At the heart of many econometric models is a linear function and a normal error. Examples include the classical small-sample linear regression model and the probit, ordered probit, multinomial probit, Tobit, interval regression, and truncated-distribution regression models. Because the normal distribution has a natural multidimensional generalization, such models can be combined into multi-equation systems in which the errors share a multivariate normal distribution. The literature has historically focused on multi-stage procedures for estimating mixed models, which are more efficiently computationally, if less so statistically, than maximum likelihood (ML). But faster computers and simulated likelihood methods such as the Geweke, Hajivassiliou, and Keane (GHK) algorithm for estimating higher-dimensional cumulative normal distributions have made direct ML estimation practical. ML also facilitates a generalization to switching, selection, and other models in which the number and types of equations vary by observation. The Stata module cmp fits Seemingly Unrelated Regressions (SUR) models of this broad family. Its estimator is also consistent for recursive systems in which all endogenous variables appear on the right-hand-sides as observed. If all the equations are structural, then estimation is full-information maximum likelihood (FIML). If only the final stage or stages are, then it is limited-information maximum likelihood (LIML). cmp can mimic a dozen built-in Stata commands and several user-written ones. It is also appropriate for a panoply of models previously hard to estimate. Heteroskedasticity, however, can render it inconsistent. This paper explains the theory and implementation of cmp and of a related Mata function, ghk2(), that implements the GHK algorithm.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Third World

297. A Case Study of Aid Effectiveness in Kenya: Volatility and Fragmentation of Foreign Aid, with a Focus on Health

Author:
Francis M. Mwega
Publication Date:
01-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
In September 2000, 149 heads of state and government endorsed the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). With this endorsement they set themselves eight goals to be reached by 2015 (from the 1990 base), foremost of which is to halve the proportion of the world's people who were absolutely poor. The MDGs provide a departure from past approaches in addressing poverty. By focusing attention on a core set of interrelated goals and measurable targets, it is now easier to track progress and measure the impact of development interventions.
Topic:
Development and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

298. Providing Aid in Insecure Environments: 2009 Update- Trends in violence against aid workers and the operational response

Author:
Abby Stoddard, Adele Harmer, and Victoria DiDomenico
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
In 2008, 260 humanitarian aid workers were killed, kidnapped or seriously injured in violent attacks. This toll is the highest of the 12 years that our study has tracked these incidents. The absolute number of attacks against aid workers has risen steeply over the past three years, with an annual average almost three times higher than the previous nine years. Relative rates of attacks per numbers of aid workers in the field have also increased — by 61%. The 2008 fatality rate for international aid workers exceeds that of UN peacekeeping troops.
Topic:
Security, Political Violence, Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, and International Organization

299. The Evolution and Future of Donor Assistance for HIV/AIDS

Author:
Laurie A. Garrett and Kammerle Schneider
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The global response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic has radically transformed over the years. From 1981 through 1996 no effective treatment for HIV infection existed, and most governments ignored the epidemic or, worse, discriminated against those who were considered at risk of infection or sick with AIDS. As treatment became available, a global mobilization emerged, seeking to provide life-sparing medication to millions of people. The past decade has seen a tremendous expansion in funding and resources for HIV/AIDS funneled through a myriad of innovative and unprecedented initiatives.
Topic:
International Relations, Health, and Humanitarian Aid

300. Alternative development financing mechanisms: pre-crisis trends and post-crisis outlook

Author:
Sam Jones
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
External financial flows have long held a central place in debates about how to promote socio-economic development in poor countries. Alternative development theories typically map into different views regarding the desirable form and volume of external inflows. Over the past decade, development policy has witnessed a clear shift towards a poverty reduction agenda. Unsurprisingly, this has been accompanied by changes in views concerning development finance. A dominant refrain of the present agenda is that 'traditional' approaches to development finance, characterised by official bilateral and multilateral assistance to discrete projects through a combination of loans and credits, have been inadequate. In response, reforms of traditional aid and alternative approaches to financing have been advocated.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa