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1381. Putin's Plans for Russia: How Realistic Are They? (Event Summary)

Author:
Emil Pain
Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Implications of Putin's policies remain vague. While analysts and politicians note alarming trends in politics, the economy and human rights, it is difficult to identify details and determine the feasibility of Putin's long-term strategy. Dr. Emil Pain, the Galina Starovoitova Fellow on Human Rights and Conflict Resolution at the Kennan Institute/Woodrow Wilson Center and a former advisor to President Yeltsin, was invited to present his views on policies of the Putin administration.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Energy Policy, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia

1382. Indonesia at the Crossroads

Author:
Catharin E Dalpino
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Indonesia's fragile new democracy is threatened by political turmoil, prolonged economic crisis, and a serious upswing in internal violence. The July inauguration of President Megawati Sukarnoputri as president is not a panacea for any of these problems, but it offers Indonesia the opportunity to make crucial mid-course corrections in its move out of authoritarian rule and economic collapse. In this regard, early indications from Jakarta are mixed.
Topic:
Democratization, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Indonesia and Southeast Asia

1383. Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 1999-2000

Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
Both the number and intensity of humanitarian emergencies, as well as the number of people in need, will remain at about the same high level or even increase somewhat by December 2000- testing the capacity and willingness of the international donor community to respond adequately. According to the US Committee for Refugees, roughly 35 million people are in need of emergency humanitarian assistance. There are twenty-four ongoing humanitarian emergencies and new or renewed emergencies could appear in the Balkans, Sub-Saharan Africa, Russia, and/or Central America. Humanitarian conditions throughout the former Yugoslavia, Haiti, Iraq, and North Korea will continue to have a particularly significant impact upon regional stability, as well as on the strategic interests of major outside powers. Conditions are likely to worsen in Angola, Colombia, Ethiopia, Somalia, and the Republic of Serbia within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY), excluding the province of Kosovo. The current drought in the Horn of Africa may induce a famine as severe as that of the mid-1980s. The humanitarian situations in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DROC) and Sierra Leone are unlikely to improve significantly even if pending peace accords hold, and could worsen considerably if such accords were to fail. In addition to the emergencies cited above, several other major countries and regions may experience conflict, political instability, sudden economic crises, or technological or natural disasters- leading to new or renewed humanitarian emergencies: Resumed hostilities between India and Pakistan that expanded beyond the borders of Kashmir, as they did in previous conflicts, would displace a million or more people on both sides of the border. The countries of Central America and the Caribbean that were battered by hurricanes in 1998- especially Honduras, Nicaragua, Dominican Republic, and Haiti-remain vulnerable to weather-induced disasters. Internal ethnic conflict would create substantial humanitarian needs in The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM). The possibility of additional sudden economic emergencies also cannot be discounted. In Russia, drought threatens the grain harvest, and unless the outlook improves, Moscow will again need large-scale food assistance. Despite Nigeria's turn toward democracy, escalating conflict in the oil-rich Niger River Delta region could lead to widespread refugee flows into neighboring countries. The possible effects of widespread Y2K-related difficulties could aggravate current humanitarian emergencies or lead to new emergencies. The overall demand for emergency humanitarian assistance through December 2000 may exceed the willingness of major donor countries to respond. Overall funding for ongoing emergencies has probably temporarily spiked upward owing to Hurricane Mitch and Kosovo. Nevertheless, the focus on the Balkans could detract attention and resources from other regions with extensive humanitarian needs. Absent major new emergencies, the longer-term funding trend is likely to continue downward, increasing the shortfall. Government funding is likely to decline fastest for long-lasting conflicts where attempts at political resolution continue to fail.
Topic:
Genocide, Government, Human Rights, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia, Balkans, and Central America

1384. Global Humanitarian Emergencies: Trends and Projections, 2001-2002

Publication Date:
08-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The capacity and willingness of the international community to respond to humanitarian emergencies will continue to be stretched through December 2002. The overall number of people in need of emergency humanitarian assistance—now approximately 42 million—is likely to increase: Five ongoing emergencies—in Afghanistan, Burundi, Colombia, North Korea and Sudan—cause almost 20 million people to be in need of humanitarian assistance as internally displaced persons (IDPs), refugees, or others in need in their home locations. All these emergencies show signs of worsening through 2002. In addition, humanitarian conditions may further deteriorate in populous countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DROC) or Indonesia. The total number of humanitarian emergencies—20—is down from 25 in January 2000. Of the current emergencies: Eleven are in countries experiencing internal conflict—Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, Colombia, DROC, Indonesia, Russia/Chechnya, Sierra Leone, Sri Lanka, Sudan, and Uganda. Two—in Iraq and North Korea—are due largely to severe government repression. The remaining six—in Azerbaijan, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, and Yugoslavia—are humanitarian emergencies that have entered the transitional stage beyond prolonged conflict, repressive government policies, and/or major natural disasters. The primary cause of the emergency in Tajikistan is drought. Several other countries currently experiencing humanitarian emergencies—Afghanistan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, North Korea, Somalia, and Sudan—also are affected by major, persistent natural disasters.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, North Korea, and Somalia

1385. Second Annual Report

Publication Date:
05-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The Commission considerably broadened its activities in its second full year, monitoring religious-freedom violations worldwide and increasing the number of countries it would study in depth. In July, the Commission wrote to the Secretary of State to recommend that Laos, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Turkmenistan be added to the list of “countries of particular concern” as provided for in the International Religious Freedom Act of 1998 (IRFA). It also recommended that Burma, China, Iran, Iraq, Sudan, the Milosevic regime in Serbia and the Taliban in Afghanistan remain on the list. In addition, it wrote that India, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, and Vietnam are serious violators of religious freedom deserving careful State Department monitoring; it also expressed concerns about sectarian violence in Indonesia and Nigeria.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, China, Iraq, Iran, Sudan, Taliban, and Vietnam

1386. U.S. Military Bases in Latin America and the Caribbean

Author:
John Lindsay-Poland
Publication Date:
10-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:
The United States maintains a complex web of military facilities and functions in Latin America and the Caribbean, what the U.S. Southern Command (known as SouthCom) calls its "theater architecture." U.S. military facilities represent tangible commitments to an ineffective supply-side drug war and to underlying policy priorities, including ensuring access to strategic resources, especially oil. Much of this web is being woven through Plan Colombia, a massive, primarily military program to eradicate coca plants and to combat armed groups (mostly leftist guerrillas of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia). In the last five years, new U.S. bases and military access agreements have proliferated in Latin America, constituting a decentralization of the U.S. military presence in the region. This decentralization is Washington's way of maintaining a broad military foothold while accommodating regional leaders' reluctance to host large U.S. military bases or complexes.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
United States

1387. ICAR Newsletter, Volume 13, Number 1

Author:
Dennis J.D. Sandole, Sandra I. Cheldelin, Sara Cobb, Ho-Won Jeong, Christopher Mitchell, Richard Rubenstein, Abdusabur Abdusamadov, Giselle Huamani Ober, John W. Holman, Catalina Rojas, Ellen Kabcenell Wayne, and Louis Kriesberg
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University
Abstract:
On Aug. 15, 2001, ICAR welcomed our new director, Sara Cobb, by sending her to represent our institute at a threeday combined retreat of the President's Council (comprising the president and senior staff members, deans, and directors) and George Mason's Board of Directors. Within days we learned that her energy and enthusiasm for ICAR's agenda was contagious and welcome. With academic year 2001–2002 beginning the following week, she has hardly had time to catch her breath.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, Human Rights, and Peace Studies

1388. Human Rights and Regional Co-Operation in the Caucasus: The Role of Georgia

Author:
Ettore Greco and Marco Gestri
Publication Date:
11-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The first session of the seminar focused on “Georgia and the European System for the Protection of Human Rights”. Analysis of the topics to be discussed within this framework was preceded by some introductory remarks by Ambassador Maurizio Moreno, Department of Political Affairs of the Italian Ministry for Foreign Affairs. Ambassador Moreno gave a concise but stimulating overview of the political context in which Georgia's international relations must be considered. First, he emphasised the clear will of the majority of the Georgian people and of Georgian institutions to strengthen ties with European and Euro-Atlantic organisations. Then he drew the attention of the Georgian participants to the fact that there is a firm determination on the part of the European Union and its member states to consider Georgia a full member of the European family of nations; this has been proven, in particular, by Georgia's accession to the Council of Europe.
Topic:
Human Rights and International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe and Georgia

1389. Empowering Local Actors: The UN and Multi-Track Conflict Prevention

Author:
Ben Rawlence
Publication Date:
12-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
The International Peace Academy convened an international policy workshop in New York on 10 December 2001 in the conference room of Chadbourne and Parke LLP bringing together approximately fifty members of the UN system and civil society representatives from around the world. The purpose of the workshop was to follow up on the June 2001 report of the United Nations Secretary-General on the Prevention of Armed Conflict and address some of the opportunities and challenges involved in working to prevent the outbreak of armed conflict in tandem with relevant local actors.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, International Law, International Organization, Migration, and United Nations
Political Geography:
New York

1390. The Economics of War

Author:
Jake Sherman
Publication Date:
09-2001
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Greed and grievance, or “need, creed and greed,” are all important sources of conflict, though the relative weight of each factor varies across cases and across time. Poverty, social inequality, rapid economic decline, large numbers of young unemployed males, and polarized identity politics may all provide the necessary catalyst for conflict, particularly when accompanied by repressive, illegal or extralegal behavior on the part of governments. Yet, as World Bank economist Paul Collier cautions, what motivates conflict and what makes it feasible are separate issues. In general, the existence of some form of grievance, whether economic, political, or social in nature, appears to be the most persuasive motivation for conflict. Greed, or, more broadly, economic motivations — whether the pursuit of resources for war-financing or for elite self-enrichment—appear more significant in sustaining, prolonging, and transforming conflict.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Human Rights, International Law, International Organization, Migration, and United Nations