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151. Brief Introduction on the International Impacts of the 2020 Pandemic: Contributions to a Strategic Analysis

Author:
Paulo Fagundes Visentini
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The origins of the current pandemic are wrapped up in conspiracy theories, but what is known is that it reached the foundations of the world system based on economic globalisation, reinforcing national and social antagonisms. Analysing the situation during its unpredictable evolution is risky, but the costs of not trying are even greater, given the prevailing confusion and manipulation. The dimensions and speed of the spread of the virus are unprecedented, since the world is much more urbanised and connected than in previous pandemics. Dominant strategies and narratives simply lost their meaning, leaving a vacuum that is filled by short-term reactive actions. But is hard politics paralysed, or the crisis creates conditions for projects to be implemented almost without opposition?
Topic:
Globalization, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

152. The Decline of Brazil's International Influence: From An Emerging Country to an Inward-Looking State

Author:
Helio Caetano Farias and Leonardo Pace Alves
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
Why has Brazil’s international influence subsided? From 2003 to 2014, Brazil fostered its socioeconomic development and pursued an assertive foreign policy that raised its international profile. Besides promoting regional integration, with Mercosur and UNASUR, Brazil played an important role in international coalitions such as the BRICS and the G 20. However, those initiatives have lost momentum from 2015 onwards. This paper aims to explain the decline in Brazil’s international influence. We hypothesize that Brazil’s politico-economic crisis, caused by domestic power struggles and international reaction to its ascent, has weakened its position as an emerging country. International systemic constraints are important, albeit not enough to account for such a setback. A comprehensive explanation needs to take in consideration both geopolitical factors and domestic power struggles.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

153. Analysis of the Brazilian Crisis: Preliminary Effects on South-South Cooperation

Author:
Patricia Andrade de Oliveira Silva and Niemeyer Almeida Filho
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The current Brazilian political and economic context is one of intense crisis and it will inevitably impact public policies. In 2000’s, practices of International Cooperation and Development (ICD) gained emphasis through organized experience sharing between developing country governments and international organizations. Brazil deepened its partnerships with others Southern countries, a practice that came to be known as South-South Cooperation (SSC). However, following the impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff in 2016, the incoming administration introduced government spending limits in the form of a Constitutional Amendment (95/2016) which structurally decreased resources available for SSC and consequently limited possibilities to continue deepening international involvement. This article analyzes the first effects of the new fiscal regime for SSC using a bibliographic review and a case study of the Social Protection.Org platform which is managed by the International Policy Centre for Inclusive Growth (IPC-IG), a centre of research excellence established through a partnership between the United Nations and Brazilian government.
Topic:
Development, Globalization, International Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, and Global South

154. Effects of US Foreign Assistance on Democracy Building, 1990–2014: An Update

Author:
Steven E. Finkel, Aníbal Pérez-Liñán, Michael Neureiter, and Chris A. Belasco
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:
This paper updates our earlier work on the impact of US foreign assistance on democratic outcomes in recipient countries using newly available USAID Foreign Aid Explorer data covering the 2001–2014 period, as well as new outcome measures derived from Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) data. Building on the theoretical and empirical framework established in our previous study and in subsequent work in the field, we estimate: a) the effect of overall USAID Democracy, Human Rights, and Governance (DRG) expenditures on general indices of democracy, b) changes in the effects of DRG expenditures after 2001, and c) the conditions that moderate the impact of DRG funding at the country level in the contemporary era. We find that the effect of DRG expenditures decreased dramatically in the 2002–2014 period, relative to the modest effect shown in the previous study for the period immediately following the end of the Cold War. However, DRG aid remains effective in the current era under favorable conditions. Further analysis demonstrates important conditional effects related to patterns of DRG investment, such that aid has greater impact when levels of security assistance are low (indicating competing priorities) and when prior DRG investment is low (indicating diminishing returns). In addition, DRG is more effective at intermediate levels of democratization and less so in contexts of democratic backsliding.
Topic:
Security, Development, Globalization, Governance, Democracy, and Public Policy
Political Geography:
North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

155. "Belt and Road Initiative": Challenges and Opportunities for China and for the World

Author:
Bruno De Conti and Petr Mozias
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The “Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI) is quite impressive in the amount of resources and the number of countries involved, but also in the diversity of intentions it reveals. In one hand, it is a demonstration of strength for China in the international arena; in the other hand, it is an effort of the Chinese government to face important economic problems. Nevertheless, it may not be studied only from the point of view of China, since it has direct and indirect impacts over the whole globe. This paper aims therefore to analyze BRI under the framework of associated opportunities and challenges for China and for the rest of the world.
Topic:
Globalization, Infrastructure, Hegemony, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China and Asia

156. The Contemporary World-System: A Contribution tom the Debate on Development in the World-Systems Theory

Author:
Analúcia Danilevicz Pereira and Salvatore Gasparini Xerri
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
This work analyzes the development in World-System Theory as produced by the flow of appropriation of global surplus value through the international division of labor, creating the divisions between center, semiperiphery and periphery in the capitalist world-economy. It thus aims to explore how the global appropriation of surplus value in the capitalist world-economy produces variations in the level of development of its different regions. To this end, it contextualizes and conceptualizes its elements on its spatial and temporal dimensions. It defines surplus value and the form of its global accumulation, and in this sense explores the succession of capitalist hegemonies, in their dialectical relationship with the system's progress, enabling the approach to the international division of labor, and how the monopoly over finance and technologies allows the center of the system to consolidate a structure that ensures the transfer of capital and surplus value from the other regions to it. It follows that the development of a particular country or region in the capitalist world-economy depends on its ability to accumulate surplus value globally. Additionally, it is observed that the conditions imposed by the system structure prevent initiatives of autonomous development by its parts, being necessary to break with them for such a project to be possible
Topic:
Development, Globalization, Capitalism, and World System
Political Geography:
Global Focus

157. Geopolitics and the Constitution in Light of the Democratic Constitutional State

Author:
Guilherme Sandoval Goes
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
This article is the result of research carried out in the postdoctoral stage of the Postgraduate Program in Aeronautical Sciences at the University of Aeronautics (PPGCA), whose theme was “Geopolitics, Culture and Law: Epistemological dialogues needed in times of postmodernity” Thus, it collimates to examine the scientific connections that unite geopolitics and law, disciplines that overlap in such a way that they end up guaranteeing fundamental rights for ordinary citizens, aiming to analyze the geopolitical control of law from the influence of neoliberal geopolitics on constitutionalism. of the countries of late modernity, as is the case of Brazil, thus it was possible to demonstrate the influence of real factors of world power in the legislative process of the countries of the Global South of neoliberal globalization, whose leadership is being disputed by the United States and China.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, Government, Governance, Law, and Neoliberalism
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Brazil, South America, North America, United States of America, and Global South

158. The Declining Hegemony of the United States and the Growing Influence of China: A Critical Perspective on Power Transition Transition Theory in the 21st Century

Author:
Nasa'i Muhammad Gwadabe
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
AUSTRAL: Brazilian Journal of Strategy International Relations
Institution:
Postgraduate Program in International Strategic Studies, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul
Abstract:
The apparent eroding in the hegemonic power of the United States and the sustained growth of China has triggered debate as to whether the rise of China will be peaceful or conflictual. Structural realism posits that the world is characterised by the anarchic ordering principle in which there is no central authority sitting above the states. Therefore, the absence of a “leviathan” on the international system automatically makes every state equal on the system which created an atmosphere of competition for the maximisation of power for survival. On a similar line of reasoning, the Power Transition theory as a variant theory within realism postulates that when the international system is structured based on the principle of hierarchy, peace will reign. It means that when international relations are regulated and influenced by a dominant power, the international system becomes stable. But the emergence of a dissatisfied powerful nation to challenge the hegemon usually ends up in war. Based on this assumption, Power Transition theorists argued that the rise of China to rival the dominance of the United States could not be peaceful. The Power Transition theory has influenced many academics to have the belief that the two nations will end up in “Thucydides’ Trap”. This belief has aggravated the matter beyond the reasonable level and has instilled panic in the mind of foreign policymakers which could jeopardise world peace and international cooperation. Hence, this paper aims to critically evaluate the deficiency of the Power Transition theory in the 21st century in explaining the current United States-China relations and the prospect of peace or war between the two nations using process tracing. Accordingly, in this paper, it is argued that in the 21st century, an armed confrontation between the United States and China is highly unlikely. Because in today’s world, nations (including the United States and China) are intertwined by the forces of globalisation which created inexorable economic interdependence. Additionally, there is rapid advancement in military technology and the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction which came with the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD). Consequently, there is a need to revisit the Power Transition theory to accommodate contemporary factors. The inclusion of the current variables into the Theory will make it applicable and adequately fit in the discourse of international relations and global politics of the 21st-century international system.
Topic:
Globalization, Military Strategy, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

159. China in One Country: interdependence or globalisation 'with Chinese characteristics'?

Author:
George Magnus
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
LSE IDEAS
Abstract:
Globalisation has faltered, and faces significant political challenges. In both the US and China, voices are calling for a reduction of economic interdependence between the two countries. In the US, this has taken the name of decoupling, in China, self-reliance. At the same time, China’s President, Xi Jinping has vocally championed globalisation in various global fora in recent years. Understanding of China’s systems of government and business, as well as its global interests, is lacking when compared to that of the US. In this Strategic Update, George Magnus investigates what is meant when China’s leadership speaks of globalisation, and what the implications of the answer are for the rest of the world.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Globalization, and Leadership
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

160. Renewed Transatlantic Responses towards China: Identifying Common Ground

Author:
Katrin Bastian and Graeme P. Herd
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
The western global order originated in the 19th and 20th centuries. It is characterized by formal international institutions and a regime of treaties, rules, norms, networks, expectations, and moral obligations. As Sigmar Gabriel and John B. Emerson note, “Our liberty is protected by democracy, the rule of law, the separation of powers, and freedom of expression and assembly. These shared principles have shaped the outlook on both sides of the Atlantic for decades.”1 These shared democratic, free, and open society principles are challenged by undemocratic non-western, economically and/or militarily successful powers, not least the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian Federation. The PRC has a population of 1.4 billion (comprising 18 percent of the global share), a 5,000-year-old history and culture, and boasts the world’s second largest economy. The PRC is ideologically assertive and displays a visible ambition to play a role on the international stage. Sociological theory suggests that the numeric dimension of a group determines social reality. Indeed, as Lenin noted: “quantity has a quality all of its own.” In this light, the PRC is simply “too big and too many” not to shape international politics. Ironically, the political West is involuntarily assisting in this reconfiguration of international power by voluntarily withdrawing from multilateral institutions and geopolitically-critical regions (the U.S., at least in the Trump administration) or by being overwhelmed with administrative tasks (the European Union, as a result of the growing number of member states, deeper integration, and COVID-19).
Topic:
Civil Society, Globalization, Multilateralism, Institutions, and Social Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus