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21. Faster taper – limited impact

Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
Markets took fright after Ben Bernanke's press conference on 19 June at the prospect of an early end to QE. Bond purchases might be tapered off sooner, as the Fed now expects unemployment to fall to its target of 6.5% next year rather than in 2015. It is not yet clear whether any of the bonds bought as part of QE will eventually be sold off. While it is obvious that an end to the Fed's purchases will have an impact on output growth and asset prices, our Global Economic Model shows that the effects will be limited.
Topic:
Markets, Global Recession, Labor Issues, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

22. Güney Avrupa'da Ekonomik Kriz ve Toplumsal Hareketler

Author:
Burak Cop
Publication Date:
02-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
The southern European countries are those who have been affected the most by the EU sovereign debt crisis. However, compared with Greece and Spain, Italy and Portugal are in relatively better positions in terms of their debt/GDP rate and unemployment figures. There has been a strong popular reaction against the austerity measures in Greece, a country where leftist parties and trade unions have been traditionally strong. Due to the miserable conditions of the economy, the Greek government has been prevented from taking the publics demands into account. It is important to note that the political situation in Greece is very unstable leading to the potential relaxing of the austerity measures. There is no such instability in Spain and Portugal, making the probability of the relaxation of austerity measures unlikely, especially in Spain. Italy has the same potential for political instability as does Greece, and given that it is a country with relatively better conditions, in comparison with the others, some relaxation of the austerity measures may be expected if the centre-left coalition comes to power.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Europe, Greece, and Spain

23. A Map for Strengthening the G20 Mutual Assessment Process

Author:
Kevin English, Xenia Menzies, Jacob Muirhead, and Jennifer Prenger
Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The 2007–2009 global financial crisis demonstrated that the world required a much stronger framework for cooperation on financial and economic issues. In September 2009, G20 heads of state responded to this need at the Pittsburgh G20 Summit with the “Framework for Strong, Sustainable and Balanced Growth” (the Framework). The MAP was created to both monitor and support G20 countries in their follow- through on commitments made under the Framework.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Organization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis

24. From Bretton Woods to the Euro: How Policy-Maker Overreach Fosters Economic Crises

Author:
Pierre Siklos
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper considers the relevance of the Bretton Woods system for the prospects of reform of the international monetary system and in the context of the ongoing euro area financial crisis. It explores the challenges that must be met in attempting to reform the present international monetary system and euro area policies. After considering what resonates, and what does not, from the Bretton Woods regime of fixed exchange rates, it examines some of the key lessons from that era. The paper concludes that policy makers at Bretton Woods promised too much in terms of the stability and durability of the policy regime, and did not give sufficient thought to how the arrangement devised in the 1940s would actually function. They failed to instill the logic of collective action among their members. In particular, the Bretton Woods system failed because the agreement paid virtually no attention to governance issues. Finally, in terms of the current situation in the euro zone, policy makers have failed to recognize that the problems are not purely economic; domestic political considerations are important too. A political-economy approach is required for the design of new international monetary arrangements. The same principles apply today when we contemplate the survival of the euro zone. Politicians need to be more realistic and less ambitious, lest they create the preconditions for the next global crisis.
Topic:
Economics, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe

25. The Irony of Global Economic Governance: The System Worked

Author:
Daniel W. Drezner
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
The 2008 financial crisis posed the biggest challenge to the global economy since the Great Depression and provided a severe “stress test” for global economic governance. A review of economic outcomes, policy outputs, and institutional resilience reveals that these regimes performed well during the acute phase of the crisis, ensuring the continuation of an open global economy. Even though some policy outcomes have been less than optimal, international institutions and frameworks performed contrary to expectations. Simply put, the system worked.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, Markets, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis

26. Industries in 2013: A special report from the Economist Intelligence Unit

Publication Date:
12-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Last year we published Industries in 2012 and made a number of predictions about developments in our six key industries – Automotive, Consumer Goods and Retail, Energy, Financial Services, Healthcare and Telecommunications. Some of our predictions were prescient, others were premature.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, and Global Recession

27. How Can Trade Policy Help America Compete?

Author:
Robert Z. Lawrence
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
America deserves credit for not having succumbed to the global financial crisis by repeating the protectionist mistakes of the 1930s. Nonetheless, since 2007, although lip service has been paid to boosting US exports, its trade policy accomplishments have been modest. This is unfortunate because active trade policies can promote American living standards and facilitate America's return to full employment and sustained growth. These policies can also help to create a global trade order that advances American interests. This policy brief argues that the United States needs new initiatives that discipline foreign practices, increase access to foreign markets, revitalize the World Trade Organization (WTO), improve the administrative and regulatory environment for trade, and assist workers and communities adversely affected by change.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and America

28. Financial Reform after the Crisis: An Early Assessment

Author:
Nicolas Véron
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper aims to take stock of global efforts towards financial reform since the start of the financial crisis in 2007–08, and to provide a synthetic (if simplified) picture of their status as of January 2012. Underlying dynamics are described and analyzed both at the global level (particularly G-20, IMF, and FSB) and in individual jurisdictions, as well as the impact the crisis has had on these regions. The possible next steps of financial reform are then reviewed, including: the ongoing crisis management in Europe, the new emphasis on macroprudential approaches, the challenges posed by globally integrated financial firms, the implementation of harmonized global standards, and the links between financial systems and growth.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

29. The Fed moves to provide more transparency

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The Federal Reserve has taken additional actions to make its monetary policy more transparent to markets. The latest moves include the release of FOMC members' expectatins for the federal funds rate at the end of each of the next few years and in the longer term. Another is an statement of strategy for meeting its dual mandates of price stability and full employment. Although the statement included an explicit target for inflation but not for unemployment, the equal weights given to each goal afford the Fed more discretion in setting monetary policy.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Global Recession, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States

30. Consumption boosts China's resilience but risks of a property bust still loom

Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
With the outlook for exports subdued and investment weak, we expect industrial output growth to slow further in 2012H1. But consumption is taking up the slack and fiscal policy is set to be supportive. As a result, we only expect a relatively modest slowing in growth in 2012 to 8.4% from 9.2% in 2011. But with house prices still falling in December, we remain concerned about the risk of a sharp slowing in the property market leading to strains on local government finances and a hard landing for growth, particularly with the external environment weak. However, central government finances are strong and fiscal transfers could provide a significant cushion in the event of a property bust.
Topic:
Communism, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, and Global Recession
Political Geography:
China and Israel