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31. Technological Disruption in the Global Economy

Author:
Commission on Global Economic Transformation
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET)
Abstract:
Technology has become the most powerful disruptive force in our economy. It bears on the future of work, competition, market power, and national security, and it binds the other major areas of our commission’s investigation: macroeconomics and finance, globalization, and climate change. In essence, technological progress propels global economic transformation. Our gathering on February 6, 2019 brought economists together with leading voices from academia, labor, private industry, and the nonprofit/NGO sector. We heard from industry leaders with deep roots and history in the Silicon Valley technology revolution, academics who have also spent time in the policy arena, and from individuals who are already considering new models and approaches to digital rights and the future of work. Our discussion was by no means exhaustive or conclusive, but we attempted to harness the group’s collective wisdom to address some of the most vexing questions of our day. This document is intended to inform our commissioners as they develop CGET’s final report and to share our timely conversation with policymakers and the general public. Fomenting multidisciplinary, critical discourse is one of the most important responsibilities of this initiative, and we sincerely thank the staff at the Institute for New Economic Thinking (INET), our dedicated commissioners, and our outside thought leaders for helping us to promote this dialogue.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Global Markets, Digital Economy, Global Political Economy, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
United States and Global Focus

32. East Asia's Decoupling

Author:
Roland Rajah
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
East Asia is no longer reliant on US or Western markets to fuel its growth, giving it more room to manage amid global trade tensions. Heightened global trade tensions and the US desire to ‘decouple’ from the Chinese economy for national security reasons pose significant risks to East Asia’s export-driven growth model. However, the latest data suggests East Asia is no longer so dependent on exporting to the West, with China in particular eclipsing the United States as the leading source of ‘final demand’ for the rest of the region’s exports. This gives East Asia much greater room to manoeuvre, as regional integration is now a more viable platform for growth while US decoupling efforts will likely struggle to find traction in the region.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Global Markets, and Exports
Political Geography:
China, East Asia, Asia, North America, and United States of America

33. Innovation in Eswatini: past, present, and future prospects

Author:
Tengetile G. Hlophe and Thula Dlamini
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Eswatini Economic Policy Analysis and Research Centre (ESEPARC)
Abstract:
Innovation is a catalyst for social and economic development and as such a precondition for progress. Given the need to increase economic activity and expand GDP in Eswatini, this study documents the history of innovation in Eswatini and assesses the potential for the traditional sector as a source of new growth. The study purposively sampled and interviewed 129 producers in the Manzini, Mbabane, and Ezulwini market places and complemented the surveys with an extensive analysis of the innovation and industrial development literature in Eswatini. The study finds that whereas Emaswati are innovative, innovation has been incremental and driven by global technological developments, government policy, new market opportunities, and changes in lifestyle and society. The study confirms that the traditional sector is a viable source of new growth. However, to realise its true potential there is a need to address the demand and supply side factors that inhibit production and innovation in traditional industries. Therefore combining modern technology with traditional knowledge and skills presents opportunities for value creation, product development or improvement, differentiation, and improving the competitiveness of Eswatini’s indigenous products in global markets. However, for this to happen requires investments in research and experimental development, innovative marketing strategies, innovation, and setting of progressive standards and quality assurance systems.
Topic:
Development, Global Markets, Research, and Innovation
Political Geography:
Africa and Eswatini

34. Scaling Up Energy Efficiency in Emerging Markets: Global Experiences, Challenges, and Opportunities

Author:
Jamal Saghir and K. Agha
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institute for the Study of International Development, McGill University (ISID)
Abstract:
To ensure the longterm success and appeal of energy efficiency, key international efforts could include: Increasing international cooperation to transfer best implementation practices. Harmonizing international financing procedures, for simpler access to financing sources for country- level energy efficiency programs. Supporting improved certification of energy efficiency equipment, through international recognized energy efficiency certification agencies.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35. Making Korea Grow Again: Rebalancing the Moon Jae-in Economic Agenda

Author:
Choong Yong Ahn
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Korea Economic Institute of America (KEI)
Abstract:
The Moon Jae-in administration in South Korea has taken a two-pronged approach to ensure urgently needed job creation and inclusive growth. Although measures towards each set of economic policies have been implemented since Moon took office in May 2017, what’s often referred to as “incomeled growth” has been prioritized over innovative growth. The income-led growth model is largely driven by domestic consumption through pro-labor distributional policies including a wage hike to raise the disposable income of low- and middleincome individuals, thereby triggering equity with growth. Focused more on the supply side, the innovative growth model encourages startups to create jobs and innovate. It is a great challenge for Korea to pursue growth and equity through both sets of policies. After a year in office, the Moon administration’s economic agenda, often referred to as J-nomics, has not fully produced the intended policy objectives in terms of job creation and growth. To mitigate a declining potential growth rate and pursue robust and inclusive growth, the twin policies need to be rebalanced, reprioritized, and interconnected in a mutually reinforcing manner to empower the private sector to play a bigger role. As a mid-sized open economy, Korea requires global market competitiveness on the supply side to create decent jobs by buoying entrepreneurship and innovation. Structural reforms in the labor market combined with deregulations necessary for the advent of disruptive 4th-industrial-revolution technologies must be expedited. Furthermore, a new business ecosystem in which win-win collaborations between globally-oriented conglomerates and small businesses must be encouraged to replace a zero-sum business culture.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Global Markets, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, and Korea

36. Explaining Globalization Scepticism

Author:
Erik Lundsgaarde
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Critical public attitudes toward economic globalization reflect a response to different facets of globalization and varied consequences of international market integration for individuals. The distribution of benefits and losses related to globalization provides a starting point for numerous studies of attitudes toward economic integration. Individuals perceive globalization’s benefits differently depending on their sector of employment or level of educational attainment, among other factors. In addition to these explanations, attention to the institutions and policies that influence how governments engage with globalization and manage its domestic consequences can also inform the analysis of why scepticism to economic integration varies across national settings. This report reviews academic literature dealing with attitudes toward globalization and the linkages between globalization and national political processes to situate the extent of globalization scepticism in Denmark alongside experiences in France and Germany. It provides an overview of trends in attitudes toward globalization in these countries and examines possible drivers of the trends.
Topic:
Globalization, Governance, Global Markets, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
Europe, France, Germany, and Denmark

37. The US Oil Embargo on Iran: A New Oil Shock?

Author:
Olivier Appert
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
The 14 July 2015 Vienna agreement on Iran’s nuclear activities (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – JCPoA) was a game changer on the geopolitics in the Middle East and for the oil market. The oil sanctions were lifted and Iran increased significantly its production and exports. On 8 May 2018, President Trump announced that the United Stated (US) would withdraw from the agreement. Financial sanctions were reintroduced. From 5 November 2018 onwards, further sanctions will be re-imposed more specifically on petroleum related transactions, including the purchase of petroleum, petroleum products and petrochemical products. What could be the impact of this new embargo? Is there a risk of a new oil supply and price shock?
Topic:
Energy Policy, Oil, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

38. Looking into Eurasia - A review of 2017: the year in politics

Author:
Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, David Cadier, Isabelle Facon, Clémentine Fauconnier, Marie-Hélène Mandrillon, Anaïs Marin, Dominique Menu, and Ioulia Shukan
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales (CERI)
Abstract:
Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Economics, Globalization, Human Rights, Nationalism, Political Economy, Natural Resources, Territorial Disputes, Global Markets, Finance, Europeanization, Memory, and Borders
Political Geography:
Russia, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan, Hungary, Turkmenistan, Georgia, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Belarus, and European Union

39. Revealed Comparative Advantage in the Global Citrus Market and Implications for South Africa

Author:
Tebogo Seleka and Ajuruchukwu Obi
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Botswana Institute for Development Policy Analysis
Abstract:
This paper adopts the Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) index and data for the period 1961-2013 to examine comparative advantage among the leading citrus exporters in the global market and draws implications for South Africa’s citrus industry. Results reveal that Spain was the most competitive citrus exporter throughout the review period. South Africa (SA) improved steadily over time from position four to position two, surpassing Italy and Morocco in the process. Morocco, which ranked between positions two and four, was also surpassed by Turkey, which improved from position ten during the period 1961-1965 to position three during 2006-2010. Trend analyses of the annual NRCA scores indicate that Turkey is on the verge of surpassing SA in terms of competitiveness. Broadly, the results indicate that SA experienced weakening comparative advantage during the apartheid era, owing partly to trade sanctions by several European countries. With the end of apartheid and the subsequent removal of the sanctions, the situation has vastly improved, further yielding a rise in SA citrus competitiveness in the global market.
Topic:
Global Markets, Economy, Exports, and Competition
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

40. The Future Development of EU Exports in a Global Context

Author:
Robert Stehrer, Roman Stöllinger, and Sandra Leitner
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
Global trade patterns are changing rapidly. Emerging economies are increasing their share of exports overall and intensifying competition in nearly all sectors. Using a gravity-based approach, this report examines the future profile of European Union (EU) world market shares at the aggregate and sectoral level. It further points towards the changing patterns of trade within the EU. Based on the results, some conclusions on EU industrial policy are drawn.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Global Markets, Economic Growth, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe, Global Focus, and European Union