Search

Begin New Search Topic GDP

41. Financing Fiscal Support under Alternative Policy Frameworks

Author:
Zico Dasgupta
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
This paper perceives fiscal support as a policy instrument and examines alternative policy frameworks that can simultaneously stabilize labour income, output and debt-GDP ratio. The need to stabilize labour income over and above output follows from the possibility of income growth rate of labour falling below output growth rate. This paper points out the limitations of sound finance regime in meeting these targets and proposes an alternative policy framework which is termed as Debt-Neutral Functional Finance with Fiscal Support (DNFS). The DNFS framework highlights the role of development financial institutions and the need for a floor level of corporate tax-GDP ratio.
Topic:
Debt, GDP, Fiscal Policy, and Income
Political Geography:
Global Focus

42. Amendments to state budget of Azerbaijan for 2020: Reasons and Expectations

Author:
Narmina Gasimova and Nigar İslamlı
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
Abstract:
Nowadays, global economic growth has been severely affected beyond anything passed in nearly a century. The outbreak of the coronavirus disease has brought its negative impact and destructive outcome on the economies alongside with the sharp fluctuations in global energy and stock markets. There might be observed a subsequent sharp decline in the number of transactions and practical shutdown of many markets due to the large-scale quarantine and self-isolation measures. Taking into consideration the abovementioned factors, it becomes clear that there emerged a need to revise all economic forecasts for 2020-2021. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicted a decline of the global economic growth rate in April (-3%), but in accordance with the current circumstances, the figures were revised in June, representing a 4.9% decrease. In spite of a fact that Azerbaijan became one of the first countries among the post-soviet countries, that allocated the largest share of GDP, in order to eliminate the economic problems caused due to the pandemic, the impact of the emerged difficulties made a necessity to revise the budget.
Topic:
Budget, GDP, Economy, Coronavirus, IMF, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan

43. EU MONITOR: Has the time come for a Czech Regional Policy?

Author:
Vít Havelka
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
Over the past 5 years, the Czech Republic has experienced unprecedented GDP growth, moving the country from 83% of EU average GDP in 2013 to 91% of the EU average GDP in 2019. At the same time, the Czech wage increased by more than 7% in 2013 in the last three years. This phenomenon is addressed by our Vít Havelka in the latest issue of the EU Monitor. The following decade will likely be determining for the future success of the Czech Republic. The global economy and its supply chains are undergoing a significant shift; Asian states are slowly becoming innovative leaders rather than being a cheap labour pool. Furthermore, the Czech Republic is heavily dependent on the automotive industry3, which is under pressure not only by stricter emission regulation, but also disruptive market change such as autonomous systems, digitalization and electrification. It is likely that old market strategies will prove obsolete as it happened in case of cell phones. Along with the changing global economy, the Czech Republic is nearing to a point where it will not be fully able to rely on the EU Cohesion Policy anymore. The country has reached the threshold of 90% EU ́s average GDP, and if the current economic development remains the same, the Czech Republic will not have access to Cohesion Funds after the coming MFF, and it will receive significantly less money from the EU budget. The problem is that regional disparities within the Czech Republic remain high, especially between the capital city Prague and the rest of the country. Simultaneously, since the EU accession in 2004, the Czech Republic relied mainly on the EU Cohesion Policy in terms of providing funding for regions, supplementing the EU ́s activity only with minor national contributions. As a result, the country does not have a well-developed culture of regional policy that would be nationally funded, and there is not even a discussion in the media about national solidarity with disadvantaged regions. The following paper aims at discussing a possible way forward for the Czech Republic, especially in the context of expected changes in global economy and simultaneous decrease of EU Funding that could help mitigate the impact of economic disruptions. The focus will be laid on possible If the whole automotive left the Czech Republic, Deloitte estimates that the Czech GDP would decrease by 25% and 1,4 million Czechs would lose their reaction to lower income from the EU, as it is presumed that a solid regional policy is crucial in maintaining internal cohesion and contributes to mitigation of economic turbulences.
Topic:
European Union, GDP, Global Political Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Europe and Czech Republic

44. Reliable Real-time Output Gap Estimates Based on a Modified Hamilton Filter

Author:
Josefine Quast and Maik H. Wolters
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
Abstract:
We propose a simple modification of Hamilton’s (2018) time series filter that yields reliable and economically meaningful real-time output gap estimates. The original filter relies on 8 quarter ahead forecast errors of a simple autoregression of real GDP. While this approach yields a cyclical component that is hardly revised with new incoming data due to the one-sided filtering approach, it does not cover typical business cycle frequencies evenly, but mutes short and amplifies medium length cycles. Further, as the estimated trend contains high frequency noise, it can hardly be interpreted as potential GDP. A simple modification based on the mean of 4 to 12 quarter ahead forecast errors shares the favorable real-time properties of the Hamilton filter, but leads to a much better coverage of typical business cycle frequencies and a smooth estimated trend. Based on output growth and inflation forecasts and a comparison to revised output gap estimates from policy institutions, we find that real-time output gaps based on the modified and the original Hamilton filter are economically much more meaningful measures of the business cycle than those based on other simple statistical trend-cycle decomposition techniques, such as the HP or bandpass filter, and should thus be used preferably.
Topic:
International Political Economy, GDP, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

45. Cling Together, Swing Together: The Contagious Effects of COVID-19 on Developing Countries through Global Value Chains

Author:
Stefan Pahl, Clara Brandi, Jakob Schwab, and Frederik Stender
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS)
Abstract:
This paper estimates the economic vulnerability of developing countries to disruptions in global value chains due to the COVID-19 pandemic and reveals that adverse demand-side effects reduce GDP up to 5.4 percent, and collapsing foreign supply generates a drop in GDP of a similar magnitude.
Topic:
Developing World, GDP, Economy, Global Value Chains, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

46. Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria: sinking together?

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In this issue of Iqtisadi Paul Rivlin analyses the underlying factors in the economic problems facing Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and highlights losses in personal income among the populations in these countries that have added fuel to social protests in recent months.
Topic:
GDP, Economy, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Syria

47. Gulf Economic Outlook 2020 - Q3 Update

Author:
Hiba Itani
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Conference Board estimates the Gulf region’s GDP growth to fall at -5.7 percent in 2020 compared to 2019. The slight improvement in oil prices in Q3 along with the easing of production cuts as of August will give oil GDP a small boost. As worries of a possible second wave of coronavirus in Q4 mount, consumer demand will weaken further, netting the rise in oil GDP.
Topic:
Oil, GDP, Economy, and Coronavirus
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gulf Nations

48. Gulf Economic Outlook 2020 - Q1 Update

Author:
Hiba Itani
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Gulf countries face a somber outlook, with the GDP of the region expected to contract by 5.9% in 2020 compared to 2019. The Gulf countries whose economies remain highly dependent on hydrocarbon are ahead of “perfect storm” like scenario: a humanitarian crisis, that morphed into a global demand shock and pushed oil prices into a free-fall. A historical oil production cut agreement barely managed to improve prices.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, GDP, and Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gulf Nations

49. An Aging Population in Asia Creates Economic Challenges

Author:
Andew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Elderly populations in Asia are expanding more quickly than other age groups. This shift in population age structure had two major impacts: demand for income support for the elderly will rise because their labor income tends to be extremely low; and gross domestic product (GDP) and other aggregate economic indicators will grow more slowly as growth in the effective labor force declines. In countries where government programs play an important role in old-age support, tax rates will have to rise or benefits will have to be curtailed or both—all options with significant political costs.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Population, GDP, and Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and Asia-Pacific

50. A stagnant China in 2040, briefly

Author:
Derek Scissors
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:
There is a considerable chance China will stagnate by 2040, with gross domestic product growth at 1–1.5 percent. The process has started, seen most clearly in stark trends for debt and aging, but better-quality data on productivity would clarify how far along stagnation is and whether it at some point reverses. China shows no sign of adopting pro-productivity reform. It will not spur growth by leveraging or bolster a shrinking labor force through current population and education policy. Innovation will help, but a large economy requires broad innovation, and the party dislikes competition. A twist comes from China’s global position, which will not deteriorate much. Outbound investment has retrenched, and the yuan’s rise was exaggerated. Consumption exports and commodities imports will stall. But China will easily be a top-two market in most sectors, and other countries are not acting to displace it. Instead, localization will occur. Commodities producers and some developing countries will lose, the latter as Chinese capital dries up. Countries that make difficult reforms will win. Consumer goods will see inflation, but innovation will be healthier with less Chinese influence. American firms will seek new pastures, and Chinese stagnation means production may relocate to the US.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, GDP, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
China and Asia