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1. Foreign policy congruence in Africa: Evidence on free movement and free trade

Author:
Florian G. Kern, Martin C. Steinwand, and Samira Diebire
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How does foreign policy of African governments reflect the preferences of their constituents? Scholars have studied public opinion in Africa and how constituents assess government performance. Yet social scientists neglect how and why foreign policy by African governments reflects public opinion, despite much anecdotal evidence of citizens expressing opinion on African foreign policy. In this paper, we investigate the congruence of governmental foreign policy positions and public opinion on issues of free movement and free trade across 34 African countries. We explore two drivers of foreign policy congruence: first democratic vs. autocratic government, and second external rents accruing from natural resources, aid, and remittances. Our descriptive evidence suggests that, on free trade, African publics tend to be more trade-sceptic than the liberalised policy positions of their governments, meaning low foreign policy congruence. On free movement, low foreign policy congruence stems from African constituents preferring more liberalisation than what governments provide. Surprisingly, multivariate analysis indicates that democracies show lower foreign policy congruence than autocracies on issues of free trade. We argue that this may be because democracies systemically oversupply market liberalisation. We cannot find an effect of external rents on foreign policy congruence.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Free Trade, Freedom of Movement, and Globalism
Political Geography:
Africa

2. A "new Washington consensus"

Author:
Johannes Späth
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Austrian Institute for International Affairs (OIIP)
Abstract:
This oiip trend report delves into the shift in the U.S. and the EU towards protectionist foreign trade policies, diverging from traditional free trade principles. Despite initial expectations of a return to free trade under President Joe Biden, the administration has maintained and expanded protectionist measures, emphasizing a labor-centered approach with import tariffs. This departure is situated within a broader global context, reflecting a growing alignment on economic security policies and strategic autonomy between the transatlantic partners. The phenomenon, termed "polite protectionism," reveals bipartisan support, influencing upcoming elections. The text elaborates on the evolving dynamics of global trade, highlighting the multifaceted motivations and consequences of the contemporary protectionist trend.
Topic:
Free Trade, Trade, Protectionism, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

3. Pax Economica: An Interview with Marc-William Palen

Author:
Seokju Oh and Marc-William Palen
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:
In his new book Pax Economica: Left-Wing Visions of a Free Trade World (Princeton University Press, 2024), historian Marc-William Palen offers a counter-history of free trade as an ideology and policy. In the nineteenth century, before it became a cherished possession of the Right, free trade was proudly claimed as their own by Left-wing activists, intellectuals, and politicians, those who were unswervingly committed to equality for all and peace among nations. Palen recovers this forgotten history of the “Left-wing free traders” of the late-nineteenth century, showing how liberal radicals, socialists, feminists, and Christian pacifists all viewed free trade as the key antidote to the social problems they encountered. Palen also upends the conventional understanding of the world of the late nineteenth and the early-twentieth centuries and argues that the fin-de-siècle was not the “Golden Age’ of the First Globalization, but actually the “Iron Age” of market enclosures and imperial competition. In February 2024, I had a great pleasure to discuss Pax Economica with Palen. Below is an edited version of the conversation.
Topic:
Economics, Globalization, Markets, History, Free Trade, and Interview
Political Geography:
Global Focus

4. Greening the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area Agreement

Author:
Lionel Fontagné, Stephen Karingi, Simon Mevel, Cristina Mitaritonna, and Yu Zheng
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales (CEPII)
Abstract:
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement aims to create a single market for goods and services, increase intra-Africa trade and promote sustainable socioeconomic development in Africa. African countries need to balance efforts to address these goals with the urgency of climate change. As of the 27th session of the Conference of Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 2022, most African countries had submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to mitigate the impact of climate change. Establishing a carbon market is now on the policy agenda. This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model with different sources of energy (including renewable energy) and an in-depth presentation of greenhouse gas emissions to assess the economic and environmental impacts of implementing the AfCFTA Agreement and adopting various climate policies in Africa, including those NDCs and the International Monetary Fund’s proposal of carbon price floors. It shows that implementing the agreement and achieving Africa’s climate objectives are compatible. Continental coordination of emissions reduction among African countries proves most efficient for climate action.
Topic:
Climate Change, International Trade and Finance, Free Trade, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Africa

5. Accelerating National Value Chains Through a Better Implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement in Cameroon

Author:
Adeline Nembot, Sandrine Viesi Maingeh, and Jean-Cedric Kouam
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Like most African countries, Cameroon, a country endowed with abundant human and natural resources, has for decades been grappling with the challenge of developing and strengthening its national value chains. Value chains refer to the sequence of activities that create value for a product or service, from the raw material to the final consumer. Indeed, Cameroon’s national value chains face numerous difficulties, including poor infrastructure, limited access to finance, lack of diversification, lack of skilled labor and corruption (1). This results to low levels of processing and value addition, leading to low export prices and high import bills. This is particularly the case for the country’s cocoa bean exports, which are processed and sold elsewhere and therefore make only a small contribution to GDP (15%) (2) Fortunately, the implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement, signed by Cameroon in 2020, appears to be a significant opportunity to accelerate its national value chains. Indeed, this agreement aims to promote intra-African trade and economic integration by eliminating tariffs on intra-African trade, facilitating the movement of goods and services, and encouraging investment. From this perspective, this article seeks to explore how Cameroon can position itself to take advantage of the opportunities presented by the implementation of the AfCFTA on its national value chains. In doing so, it will highlight to African leaders and governments, economic operators and national and multinational companies the importance of developing their manufacturing sector and achieving the target of 30% of GDP by 2030. This article presents the trade and economic profile of Cameroon in Section 2, the role of the AfCFTA in promoting Cameroon’s value chains in Section 3, and the conclusion in Section 4.
Topic:
Regional Cooperation, Natural Resources, Free Trade, and Value Chains
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

6. Promoting the Implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in Cameroon

Author:
Nkafu Policy Institute
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) represents a transformative opportunity for African nations, aiming to establish a unified continental market for goods and services, enhance intra-African trade, and promote economic growth and development. As Cameroon embarks on this ambitious journey, it is essential to acknowledge the significant role that trade plays in our national development strategy. This report, titled “The Next Decade: Leveraging Trade for Cameroon’s Development,” serves as a comprehensive exploration of the policies, strategies, and partnerships necessary to fully harness the potential of the AfCFTA. In the coming decade, Cameroon has the opportunity to establish itself as a regional leader in trade and economic integration. This report emphasizes the significance of public-private partnerships and foreign direct investment as essential components in achieving this objective. By analyzing successful case studies from other countries, we can extract valuable lessons that will guide our approach to effectively implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Our commitment to strengthening infrastructure, enhancing regulatory frameworks, and promoting local industries will be crucial in creating a favorable environment for trade and investment. As we move forward, it is imperative that all stakeholders—government, private sector, civil society, and academia—collaborate to create a unified strategy that aligns with our national development objectives. Together, we can unlock the immense potential of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), driving sustainable economic growth and improving the livelihoods of all Cameroonians. This report serves as a call to action for all of us to actively engage in shaping the future of trade in Cameroon. Let us seize this moment and work collectively towards a prosperous and integrated African economy.
Topic:
Economic Growth, Free Trade, Regional Economy, and African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)
Political Geography:
Africa

7. Misconceptions about US Trade Deficits Muddy the Economic Policy Debate

Author:
Maurice Obstfeld
Publication Date:
08-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
The distrust of openness to the global economy shared by Republican and Democratic leadership derives in part from a faulty premise that persistent US trade deficits have been imposed on the United States by foreign countries and have contributed significantly to US deindustrialization. In fact, the deficits have important domestic sources, and the main drivers of US manufacturing employment decline lie elsewhere. Two theories that blame foreign countries for deficits hold that deficits arose from unfair competition by trade partners or from a “global savings glut.” The author says the first theory is wrong, the second is incomplete, and economic isolationism is not a solution. Trade and current account deficits result generally from an economy’s collective decisions to save and invest. Freer trade does not necessarily raise investment more than saving, and an investment-driven deficit is likely positive for the economy. The years 1998–2001 during and after the Asian financial crisis led to the dollar appreciating and a rise in the US deficit, consistent with the global saving glut theory. But subsequently in the 2000s, foreign capital was not pushed into the United States from abroad; rather it was pulled and the dollar depreciated. The causes were easy financial conditions, a housing bubble, and strong US consumption—trends that ended in a financial crisis. Understanding this history is essential if the United States is to avoid destructive protectionism and other harmful economic policies.
Topic:
Economy, Economic Policy, Free Trade, Trade Deficit, and Deindustrialization
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

8. Building a Mature UK Trade Policy

Author:
David Henig
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
Global Britain has not delivered according to the hopes expressed by supporters of leaving the EU. Trade with the rest of the world has not grown to make up for leaving a bloc with seamless trade, early Free Trade Agreements with Australia and New Zealand are of minor economic significance, and it is hard to discern much of a strategy beyond completing a few more similar deals. Meanwhile the world of trade policy is transformed since 2016, negatively. The US has essentially declared its national interests to be more important than global rules, while the EU wants to act unilaterally as the global regulator. In both, the climate crisis is being used as an excuse to reintroduce protectionist measures threatening economic damage and global stability. Expectations of what a UK outside of the EU could achieve were exaggerated, but nonetheless the country could be doing a lot better in its trade policy. There is no good reason for such tensions as exist with a broad range of frustrated stakeholders, the absence of clear purpose on UK strengths such as services, or the defensiveness that seemingly takes pride in secrecy and resistance to proper scrutiny. Adjustment time was inevitable, but six years should have been enough.
Topic:
Economics, European Union, Free Trade, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

9. Formula for a Crisis: Protectionism and Supply Chain Resiliency—the Infant Formula Case Study

Author:
Scott Lincicome, Gabriella Beaumont-Smith, and Alfredo Carrillo Obregon
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
It has become accepted wisdom in Washington that the COVID-19 pandemic revealed how openness to international trade and investment increases U.S. vulnerability to economic shocks and contributes to widespread shortages of food, medicine, and other essential goods. This official narrative, however, ignores ample economic research showing that, while disruptions are inevitable in a modern economy, the alternative to free trade—a protectionism‐​driven onshoring of global supply chains—carries its own risks and can even heighten vulnerability by inhibiting natural market adjustments to economic shocks. The infant formula crisis, which lasted for most of 2022 and was unique to the United States, provided an unfortunate real‐​world lesson in this regard.
Topic:
International Trade and Finance, Free Trade, Resilience, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

10. The Russian-Ukrainian War: An Opportunity to Strengthen the AfCFTA

Author:
Steve Tametong and Venessa Aboudi
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The world had hardly covered from the horrors of the COVID-19 pandemic when it was once again tested on February 24, 2022, by the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine. The consequences of this war are quite significant for humanity. On the economic level, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict has highlighted the disadvantages of globalization, understood as a process marked by the interconnection and interdependence of world economies. The inflationary shock and the food crisis resulting from the inoperative nature of import channels for certain basic necessities from Russia and Ukraine have demonstrated the fragility of the economies. With regard to African countries, in particular, the prices of several basic food products (wheat, flour, rice, maize, bread, vegetable oil, etc.) have risen sharply. Indeed, most African countries are almost dependent on the import of agricultural products and seeds from the two belligerent countries. These imports correspond to 35 billion US dollars of imports each year (1). This appears to be an incongruity given the extent of arable land on the African continent. The low production and especially processing capacity increases the dependence of African economies on the import of these basic products. The outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict makes it possible to question the economic resilience of African States, that is to say, their “capacity [ to] keep output close to [their] potential despite a shock ” (2). Above all, it offers the opportunity to analyze the economic and commercial potential of the AfCFTA in the process of building the resilience of African economies to external shocks. Indeed, the AfCFTA was officially launched in January 2021 with the main objective of “creating a single market for goods and services facilitated by the movement of people in order to deepen the economic integration of the African continent…” (3). This policy note is structured around the idea that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, in view of its socio-economic consequences on the African continent, offers an opportunity for African countries to work toward the strengthening of the AfCFTA. So that it appears as a real pole of competitiveness and inter-African trade likely to counter the shocks and uncertainties of the dynamics of world trade. Before analyzing the AfCFTA as a pole of production and export of African products (II), it is necessary to take stock of the socio-economic consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian war on African economies (I).
Topic:
Security, International Trade and Finance, Military Strategy, Free Trade, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, Europe, and Ukraine