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381. The Expanding China-Russia Defense Partnership

Author:
Richard Weitz
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Russia and China’s relationship is increasingly strengthened by arms sales, joint military exercises, and mutual diplomatic support. With growing frequency, the two countries hare expressing joint concern towards “threatening” U.S. military capabilities and security policies. China’s growing ability to deny foreign navies access to waters and airspace is connected to the sophisticated defense platforms provided by Russia. Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are seeking a closer defense partnership, which could take the form of integrated military operations, collaboration on battlefield technology, or a joint missile defense system. Through joint military exercises, China is learning from Russia’s military experience in Crimea, gaining operational knowledge on expeditionary logistics and how to protect military bases in foreign countries. In 2021, the Sino-Russian Treaty of Friendship expires. Its renewal could introduce new dynamics to the China-Russian relationship, and the possible inclusion of collective defense provisions like those between the U.S. and Japan.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Cooperation, National Security, Science and Technology, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, and Weapons
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Asia, and United States of America

382. Modernizing the Land-Based Leg of the Nuclear Triad: Myths and Facts

Author:
Rebeccah L. Heinrichs and Brandi Jackson
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Across Democratic and Republican administrations over the past sixty years, U.S. strategists have determined that for the United States, a nuclear triad is the most strategically sound means to credibly deter adversaries. In an increasingly complex threat environment—facing nuclear adversaries and nuclear aspirants with different national objectives, military capabilities, and strategies—a nuclear triad provides the President of the United States with necessary flexibility while accounting for possible changes in adversaries’ capabilities and the geopolitical environment. To remain effective, the U.S. must modernize its Cold War legacy nuclear forces. This booklet is intended to dispel myths surrounding the land-based leg of the nuclear triad and explore the advantages of adopting the ground-based strategic deterrent missile system (GBSD) rather than continuing to recapitalize the aging Minuteman III system.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Nuclear Weapons, Science and Technology, Military Spending, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

383. The Eastern Mediterranean in the New Era of Major-Power Competition: Prospects for U.S.-Israeli Cooperation

Author:
Douglas J. Feith and Seth Cropsey
Publication Date:
09-2019
Content Type:
Case Study
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This is a study of Eastern Mediterranean security and how the United States and Israel can improve cooperation to protect their common interests. The study’s particular focus is the maritime domain. Few things in world affairs survive for millennia. It’s also true that few are ever really new. In the Eastern Mediterranean, what has endured for thousands of years is the strategic attention of great powers. The region retains it today, commanding interest not only from local and regional actors, but also from global players. As Iran works to extend its reach to the Mediterranean, Russia, as it has for centuries, strives to exert its influence across the Middle East. The United States, on the other hand, has been signaling a desire to reduce its involvement in the region. Remarkably, China too has become a player. Its increasing presence in the Middle East reflects commercial and strategic motives and signifies its rise as a force competing for global economic and military predominance. China is at once a security challenge and a close economic partner. It is the world’s major rising and disruptive power and plays a huge role in global trade and investment.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, National Security, Science and Technology, Military Spending, Maritime, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Israel, United States of America, and Mediterranean

384. The Cornerstone and the Linchpin: Securing America’s Northeast Asian Alliances

Author:
Patrick M. Cronin
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
During an era in which strategic gravity is shifting to Asia, the United States cannot be careless in tending to its alliances with Japan and South Korea (the Republic of Korea, or ROK). The three countries face persistent threats from North Korea and from China’s semi-transparent bid for regional hegemony. Meanwhile, rocky relations between Tokyo and Seoul are jeopardizing vital U.S. interests in the Indo-Pacific. The latest disagreement between America’s premier allies raises new questions about alliance strategy, commitment, and burden-sharing. These fissures have become exacerbated as the U.S. pressures allies to increase their contributions to regional security and reciprocal trade. [...] This report seeks to explain why the U.S.-Japan and U.S.-ROK alliance are still a vital means of achieving overlapping strategic interests. At the same time, it also argues that keeping these alliances fit for purpose requires radical change rather than business as usual. Both a rapidly changing security environment and growing intra-alliance squabbling pose dangers that require U.S. leadership. This report concludes with specific ideas for advancing bilateral and trilateral cooperation in the coming months and years, without trying to achieve too much too quickly.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Economics, International Security, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, South Korea, North America, and United States of America

385. If You Can’t See ’em, You Can’t Shoot ’em: Improving US Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance, and Targeting

Author:
Seth Cropsey
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This report tracks the development of naval and maritime intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and targeting (ISR/T) from the Cold War to the present day. It reveals the fluctuating relationship between ISR/T and weapons ranges that have adversely impacted the US Navy’s combat capabilities. While the United States developed longer-range weapons throughout the Cold War and revised tactics and fleet composition to better employ those weapons offensively, the gap that remained between weapons range and targeting information had a negative effect on US Navy combat power. Following the Cold War, while weapons and delivery-system range decreased, ISR/T capacity and capability rose, allowing for precision strikes against ground targets at short and medium range. Finally, the contemporary fleet, facing renewed great power competition, is increasingly receiving long-range strike weapons. However, it lacks the ISR/T complex to identify and hit targets at those ranges in most over-the-horizon combat situations. Second, this report reviews the current ISR/T capabilities to which the US Navy has access, primarily in the Pacific theater, and performs first-order sufficiency analysis to gain an understanding of the impact the current program of record has on operational requirements. Finally, the report concludes with several key recommendations to naval policymakers, civilian and military.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, Military Affairs, and Surveillance
Political Geography:
Asia, North America, and United States of America

386. China’s Economic Slowdown: Root Causes, Beijing’s Response and Strategic Implications for the US and Allies

Author:
John Lee
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
This monograph attempts to argue and/or demonstrate three main points. First, it looks at why there were credible fears about the stability and viability of the Chinese economy — especially the financial and banking system — leading up to the end of the Twelfth Five Year Plan (2011–15), and what these were. To understand why Beijing was so concerned, the monograph draws out the serious structural problems that were leading inevitably to a permanent slowdown from the double-digit growth rates of the first three decades of reform. Second, the monograph looks at what occurred from 2015 to the present, and how China apparently overcame its economic difficulties. In fact, it has not overcome its problems, but deferred them to a future time in ways that only its unique authoritarian political economy is able to do.Third, it is clear the Communist Party is not passively awaiting an unhappy economic fate in connection with its mounting imbalances and domestic economic dysfunction. In many respects, its leaders have been highly creative in seeking solutions that do not entail a weakening of the party’s hold on economic power. On the contrary, the party has been busily shaping and pursuing grand strategic policies such as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and Made in China 2025 (MIC 2025) to solve or alleviate many of its domestic political-economic problems. This monograph argues that these and other outward-focused initiatives stem most fundamentally from Chinese weaknesses and vulnerabilities but are being remade and recast into initiatives that will strengthen the position of the CCP domestically, ensure greater resilience for its political economy, and advance its ambitious strategic and international objectives at the same time. In summary, it is about the Communist Party cleverly transforming domestic vulnerability into grand strategy and using economic approaches to gain pre-eminence and “win without fighting.”
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Geopolitics, Economy, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

387. Building Development Partnership: Engagement Between China and Latin America

Author:
Haibin Niu
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
The full-fledged economic ties between China and Latin America and the Caribbean are important indicators of China’s role as a global player. In the ongoing and heightened debate about China’s rise, China’s impact on Latin America is being discussed by scholars and policymakers worldwide. Though there are doubts about China’s intentions and impact on Latin America, China has developed a more substantial and meaningful policy framework to build development partnership with the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, International Cooperation, and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Latin America

388. Chinese Cultural Diplomacy: instruments in China’s strategy for international insertion in the 21st Century

Author:
Danielly Silva Ramos Becard and Paulo Menechelli Filho
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional (RBPI)
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
This article analyzes instruments of Chinese cultural diplomacy (2003-2018), such as the media, cinema, and the Confucius Institutes, as well as its potential to overcome barriers between states. China’s cultural soft power was studied in Confucius Institutes in the U.S.. The conclusion is that China increasingly used cultural diplomacy and turned it into a key instrument in its strategy for international insertion.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Soft Power, and Cultural Diplomacy
Political Geography:
China and Asia

389. The Role and Activities of the Eastern European Group within the United Nations System

Author:
Boguslaw Wind
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:
Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:
Thank you very much for the invitation and thank you for allowing me to speak to you about the United Nations and its role in Central and Eastern Europe. This is probably the first time in the history of our conference that we are discussing the United Nations. I will argue that there is a lot that we as Eastern Europeans can do together and how our coop- eration within the UN can be more fruitful and useful for all. I would like to first discuss how we can cooperate better in the General Assembly, Security Council and the United Nations Secretariat. Where are the opportunities? Where are the challenges? What else should we consider and be aware of? Let us begin with the historical context: what has been the role of the UN for Central and Eastern European countries? During the communist era, we were denied indepen- dence or sovereignty, thus the real interests of our countries were not represented on the global stage. There were of course communist embassies, very close coordination with Soviet diplomats, and weekly or even daily instructions coming from Moscow. This was the case until 1989. Then communism collapsed and our countries regained their inde- pendence and sovereignty. Initially, in the early 1990s, the UN was visibly present in East- ern Europe as a result of civil wars and ethnic conflicts. UN peacekeepers were a familiar sight, serving on various missions seeking to reestablish peace and stability. Then, I would argue, the role of the United Nations in our regional diplomacy and politics declined as the 20th century drew to a close and the 21st century began. This was due to the very powerful roles played by the European Union, NATO and the OSCE. These organizations eclipsed in importance the seemingly distant United Nations in New York City. Now, the situation is changing again, and we are witnessing a resurgence of the UN’s impact on Polish and European diplomacy. The UN is gradually reestablishing its role as useful platform through which Poland can play an active and leading role in promoting the political and economic interests of our region. It is particularly noteworthy that the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Jacek Czaputowicz spent the majority of May 2018 in New York – not enjoying the beautiful Big Apple, but working long hours, leading the various debates within the Security Council – giving Polish foreign policy a critical platform on the world stage.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland

390. U. S. Diplomatic and Humanitarian Impact Supporting 1918 Re-Emerging Poland: House, Lord and Hoover

Author:
Z. Anthony Kruszewski
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Warsaw East European Review (WEER)
Institution:
Centre for East European Studies, University of Warsaw
Abstract:
This paper aims to underline a certain dichotomy in the pre-World War II and present perception of the events preceding the history of the re-establishment of Poland on No- vember 11, 1918. Although the historical facts were duly recorded, described and analyzed by the his- torians – the subsequent prevailing ideological interpretations did not fully integrate the events described in this paper into the official school programs of the interwar (1918–1939) II Republic of Poland. The major role for the policies responsible for the rebuilding of the Polish national state after 123 years was then allocated, according to the political beliefs of scholars to either Marshal Józef Piłsudski or Roman Dmowski, and their respective political ideological camps. Hence, the Polish high school students of that period had then only very limited knowledge of the events largely shaped by the Western Allies behind the scene or at the Versailles Conference of 1919 – by the Allied powers, who after all had a decisive role in reshaping the post-World War I map of Europe. Furthermore, because of the Communist take-over of Poland in 1944 and thereafter the total reshaping of school programs during the existence of the Polish People’s Repub- lic until 1989, the presentation of the basic historical facts (rejected by the Communists) were either totally falsified or largely by-passed. Hence, whole generations of Polish high school students educated then – still have huge gaps in the perception of the modern history of their own nation. The above facts lead me to attempt to research anew and to popularize some cir- cumstances, which largely favorably shaped support for the Polish cause after World War I, especially since they were created by the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Sovereignty, and Humanitarian Intervention
Political Geography:
Europe, Eastern Europe, and Poland