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1. Cyber Mapping the Financial System

Author:
Jan-Philipp Brauchle, Matthias Göbel, Jens Seiler, and Christoph Von Busekist
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Cyber risks present a growing threat for individual agents in the financial system: banks, insurers, central counterparties, and the like. However, cyber events may also have the potential to destabilize the financial system as a whole. While dedicated microprudential regulatory and supervisory regimes are in place or are being developed to manage cyber risks especially at credit institutions, what is lacking is a systemic view of cyber risks that particularly sheds light on concentrations and contagion channels that are material to the financial system.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Finance, Networks, Risk, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. Strategies for reforming Afghanistan’s illicit networks

Author:
Harris Samad and Fatima Salman
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This report explores illicit networks in Afghanistan in the context of peacebuilding, democratic consolidation, and enhancing state capacity. Existing literature on the topic is sparse. While the 1990s saw study of the subject matter as tangential to international arms and drug trafficking policies, this period laid the foundation for renewed interest on the issue partially catalyzed by the 2001 US-led invasion. The 2008 global financial crisis shifted this lens toward one of countering the financing of terrorism strategies, corruption, and money laundering. The current day reflects a broadening of how illicit networks are analyzed beyond sector-specific policies; that is, the subject matter today encompasses more of the sectors that make it profitable, rather than focusing only on the most relevant component at a given time. Indeed, it is an internationalized issue, encompassing the smuggling of different goods and involving individuals of varying motivations and capacities within and without Afghanistan. Illicit networks can be broadly understood at three main levels: hyper-local, national, and international. At a hyper-local level, illicit networks represent a series of interpersonal relationships that facilitate the exchange of goods and compensation (taking many forms) beyond the reach of central law enforcement or political authority. Nationally, illicit networks comprise regional and countrywide patronage, criminal, and insurgent networks that organize and profiteer from the hyper-local relationships on a macro level. Internationally, actors with reach outside of the country move illicitly gained goods such as poppy, talc, methamphetamine, minerals, and others, as well as people via human trafficking, into trading hubs in Iran, Pakistan, and the Gulf for export into international markets. They then use poorly regulated financial institutions throughout the world (notably, Western and Gulf banking systems) to store funds, some of which make their way back to Afghanistan (though this phenomenon is particularly difficult to track). This report outlines several specific policy recommendations that will be necessary to combat the illicit networks in a manner that supports the durability of the ongoing peace process in Afghanistan and the continued consolidation of its fragile democratic institutions. These recommendations include the following: For Afghanistan: Provide a path for illicit actors into the formal economy; Generate political will and support; Establish high-level Afghan support for countering illicit trafficking; and upholding the rule of law; Implement enhanced border management; Expand the negotiating table to include more localized narratives; Strengthen and internationalize counter-threat finance strategies For the United States: Support a comprehensive economic settlement; Ensure future interoperability between Afghan and US security forces For regional stakeholders: Provide access to global markets to enhance regional trade integration; Cut off regional and international components of networks to reduce viability and profitability via neighborhood watchdogs, in conjunction with the United States
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Arms Trade, Trafficking, Financial Institutions, and Non-Traditional Threats
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and South Asia

3. Who Are These Bond Vigilantes Anyway? The Political Economy of Sovereign Debt Ownership in the Eurozone

Author:
Tobias Arbogast
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
This paper examines the ownership structure of eurozone public debt and the distribu- tional consequences thereof. Through both a comparative perspective and an explorative case study of Italy, this paper asks two research questions. Firstly, it asks who holds gov- ernment debt in Spain, France, Germany, and Italy. I focus in on Italy to provide, to the author’s knowledge, the first highly disaggregated view of the holding structure of public debt. Secondly, for Italy I study distributional effects by examining who benefits from the interest received on government debt. This is accomplished through an investigation of the various stakeholders associated with public debt. Results indicate that most of the public debt is held by private and public financial institutions but rarely directly by households. Both direct and indirect beneficiaries of the interest received on government bonds in Italy turn out to be largely wealthy households, reflecting the unequal ownership of wealth more generally. However, prominent public financial institutions are also significant beneficiaries, which likely ameliorates a possible regressive distributional effect of the public debt hold- ing structure. The paper discusses the results with an eye on inequality and contributes to further study of the political economy of public debt.
Topic:
Debt, Inequality, Financial Institutions, and Public Debt
Political Geography:
France, Germany, Spain, and Italy

4. Toward a Discursive Approach to Growth Models Social Blocs in the Politics of Digital Transformation

Author:
Sidney Rothstein
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The growth models perspective analyzes the role of social blocs in crafting countries’ eco- nomic policies, but its treatment of business power as purely structural prevents it from ad- dressing an important question in the politics of digital transformation: How have new sec- tors with miniscule economic footprints been able to influence economic policy? This paper explores how tech and venture capital successfully lobbied for financial deregulation at the beginning of digital transformation in the United States. The paper argues that explaining the role of social blocs in digital transformation requires incorporating discourse analysis and develops a conceptual framework around three discursive components in the dynamics of social blocs: coordination, persuasion, and performativity. This framework contributes to theory development in the growth models perspective and illustrates how the concept of social blocs can help make sense of the politics of digital transformation.
Topic:
Regulation, Digital Economy, Financial Institutions, and Discourse
Political Geography:
United States and North America

5. Climate Scenarios for the Canadian Lending and Investment Industry

Author:
Olaf Weber and Adeboye Oyegunle
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Recently, a task force has been established by the Financial Stability Board that addresses climate risks for the financial industry. The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) has published recommendations for standardized disclosure about climate-related risks, and it has proposed developing scenario analyses to address climate-related risks for the financial industry. Using the climate risk indicators developed by the TCFD, an impact analysis that explored how direct impacts of the risk indicators influence one another was conducted. In addition, the influence of indirect impacts of the risk indicators on each other was examined by using a mathematical approach, the cross impact matrix-multiplication applied to classification (MICMAC Analysis). Finally, three scenarios were generated (a business as usual scenario; a reduced climate policies scenario; and a strong climate policies scenario), from which recommendations were made that will enable the Canadian financial sector to address risks and take proactive action, including investing in a low-carbon economy, to mitigate climate change.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Investment, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Canada and North America

6. Iran Has a Slow Motion Banking Crisis

Author:
Adnan Mazarei
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
Suffering under Western sanctions and security challenges, Iran faces problems as well from its fragile banking system, which has been languishing for decades. Liquidity and solvency weaknesses pose a growing risk to the country’s financial stability. The sanctions reimposed by the United States in 2018 have heightened these vulnerabilities, but the problems also result from the heavy-handed role of the state, corruption, and the Central Bank of Iran’s failure to regulate and supervise the system. Iran’s ability to avoid a run on its banks is aided by their reliance on liquidity assistance, deposit insurance, and regulatory forbearance from the central bank. Depositors are forced to be patient because they have limited options to invest elsewhere. Iran has thus avoided a full-blown banking crisis. But the situation is not sustainable. Banks remain susceptible to external shocks, which could come from a complete halt to oil exports or war.
Topic:
Security, Financial Crisis, Sanctions, Banks, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

7. The role of Chinese finance in the City of London after Brexit

Author:
Sarah Hall
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
Abstract:
London is the largest western financial centre for financial transactions denominated in Renminbi (RMB) and has played an important role in shaping the rapid and recent internationalisation of Chinese finance. This policy brief discusses how to maintain this leading role post-Brexit.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Finance, Brexit, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Britain, China, and United Kingdom

8. The role of Chinese finance in the City of London after Brexit: Background Report

Author:
Sarah Hall
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Research Institute, University of Nottingham
Abstract:
The competitiveness of London’s financial centre is shaped by the UK’s current adoption of EU regulations. The future development of London’s financial services sector is unknown as Britain’s relationship with Europe changes following the vote to leave the EU in the 2016 referendum. This uncertainty arises because even if Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement is adopted, the UK will then have to choose whether to converge, seek equivalence with or diverge from EU regulations for financial services. Research by Professor Sarah Hall (University of Nottingham) argues that the implications of these regulatory decisions will impact London’s financial services sector’s relationship with financial markets globally. Her research focuses on how London’s role as the largest western financial centre for financial transactions denominated in China’s currency, the renminbi, could be adversely affected following changes in the regulatory alignment between the UK and the EU following Brexit.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Finance, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Britain, China, and United Kingdom

9. Navigating Low-Carbon Finance Management at Banks and Non-Banking Financial Institutions

Author:
Naoyuki Yoshino and Farhad Taghizadeh-Hesary
Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
Abstract:
Lack of long-term financing, the existence of various risks, the low rate of return, and lack of capacity in market actors are major challenges for the development of low-carbon projects. This paper attempts to provide guidelines for governments and financial institutions by highlighting practical solutions as enabling conditions of low-carbon finance and investment. Such solutions include increasing the role of public financial institutions, increasing the share of non-banking financial institutions in long-term investments, using the spillover tax to increase the rate of return, developing green credit guarantee schemes to reduce the credit risk, and addressing low-carbon investment risks via financial and policy de-risking. These solutions are analysed in detail and considerations for their implementation are discussed throughout the paper. Tools and instruments for low-carbon investments and a practical example of the implementation of the proposed tools are also provided in this paper
Topic:
Climate Change, Infrastructure, Banks, Credit, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Addressing Excessive Risk Taking in the Financial Sector: A Corporate Governance Approach

Author:
Steven L. Schwarcz and Maziar Peihani
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Excessive corporate risk taking by systemically important financial institutions (SIFIs) is widely seen as one of the primary causes of the global financial crisis. In response, an array of international reforms, under the auspices of the Group of Twenty’s (G20’s) standard-setting bodies, has been adopted to try to curb that risk taking. However, these reforms only impose substantive requirements, such as capital adequacy, and cannot by themselves prevent future systemic collapses. To complete the G20 financial reform agenda, SIFI managers should have a duty to society (a public governance duty) not to engage their firms in excessive risk taking that leads to systemic externalities. Regulating governance in this way can help supplement the ongoing regulatory reforms and reduce the likelihood of systemic harm to the public.
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Reform, Regulation, Risk, and Financial Institutions
Political Geography:
Global Focus