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1. The New Political Groups in the European Parliament: Ideological Identity and Cohesion

Author:
Antonis Papakostas and Spyros Blavoukos
Publication Date:
02-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the outcome of the June 2024 European Parliament elections, focusing on the characteristics of national political formations that are represented in Strasbourg and the identity of the political groups in the European Parliament. This analysis is based on two axes of ideological and political nature: (1) the political spectrum (Left to Right), and (2) the disposition of the parties toward European integration. The paper makes use of data from the European Election Study 2024 (EES) exploring EP political groups’ (lack of) homogeneity and the varying degree of their internal cohesion.
Topic:
Ideology, European Parliament, Identity, Regional Politics, and Cohesion
Political Geography:
Europe

2. Overcome divisions and confront threats: Memo to the Presidents of the European Commission, Council and Parliament

Author:
Maria Demertzis, André Sapir, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
In the last five years, the European Union managed to find its way through a series of major shocks, including the pandemic and the 2022 surge in energy prices. The response was in many ways remarkable, including unprecedented EU borrowing to fund the NextGenerationEU economic recovery programme and a coordinated reduction in energy demand. However, these crises have left the EU in a bruised state. The pandemic recession and energy-support measures have squeezed fiscal space. Higher energy prices have persisted and EU industrial competitiveness has been eroded. The productivity and per-capita income gap with the United States has widened. Meanwhile, the world around the EU has become more threatening and fragmented. The military situation in Ukraine remains precarious. China has become both more authoritarian and more assertive. The US shift toward protectionism has become entrenched. There is less consensus for measures to combat climate change. In the face of all this, the challenges confronting you are substantial. In the next five years, you must continue to support Ukraine while implementing measures to reinvigorate EU growth, meet the 2030 climate targets and lay the ground for meeting the 2040 goals, and secure faster emissions reductions beyond the EU’s borders. Social cohesion needs to be restored to head off threats to the EU model. More needs to be done to improve EU external security. Promoting growth and enhancing cohesion will entail further deepening of the single market in areas with the highest growth impact, doing more to support innovation and defending competition, openness and multilateralism. Safeguarding the European Green Deal means boosting green industrialisation and fair burden-sharing, while scaling up international climate finance. Strengthening security requires continued support for Ukraine and the addressing of economic security risks. Underpinning all of this, a serious effort must be made to improve EU governance – and it must be done without creating further division.
Topic:
Security, European Union, European Parliament, European Commission, Energy, Regional Politics, Competition, European Council, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:
Europe

3. The rise of the far right in the European Union: Gaining power not through a sweeping victory, but through creeping normalisation

Author:
Nils Fabian Müller
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
In the 2024 EU elections, far-right parties are expected to win more seats in the European Parliament than ever before. At the national level, too, far-right parties are entering more and more EU governments. Despite these gains, the centre-right European People’s Party, rather than the far right, is likely to play the central role in the EU institutions in the next legislature. The EU’s consensus-based system is a safeguard against the sudden seizure of power by far-right parties. But once they have achieved a certain position, the same system makes it difficult for others to form majorities without them. The EU is therefore facing not a sweeping but a creeping gain in far-right power, as centrist political parties become more open to cooperation, and far-right positions are slowly normalised in political discourse. Paradoxically, the very mechanisms that are supposed to protect national sovereignty (such as unanimity requirements in the Council) are the ones most likely to allow far-right parties to influence EU policy, even if they represent only a minority of EU citizens.
Topic:
Elections, European Union, Far Right, and European Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe

4. Majority-building in the next European Parliament: The case for a more formal coalition

Author:
Andreas T. Müller
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
Abstract:
The openness of the European People’s Party (EPP) to some far-right parties in the European Parliament has led to mistrust and conflict within the political centre. A written coalition agreement could remedy this – and even improve democracy at the EU level.
Topic:
European Union, Democracy, European Parliament, and Coalition
Political Geography:
Europe

5. Winds of change: The EU’s green agenda after the European Parliament election

Author:
Susi Dennison, Mats Engström, and Carla Hobbs
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
The next European Commission and Parliament are likely to place security and competitiveness at the centre of their quest for a more geopolitical Europe. With concerns about the costs of the green transition, growing trade tensions between the US and China, and uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the US presidential election and Russia’s war on Ukraine, the EU will probably find it much harder to make further progress on climate action over the next five years. These geopolitical developments – and the way the EU responds to them – will have far-reaching consequences for the EU’s trade and technology decisions, fossil fuel phase-out, and climate diplomacy. The case for climate action remains clear, including its role in European security and competitiveness. In this challenging context, climate progressives will have to deploy compelling narratives, strategic resourcing, and diplomatic engagement to advance the best possible climate agenda during the EU’s next institutional cycle.
Topic:
Climate Change, European Union, Geopolitics, European Parliament, Decarbonization, and Green Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

6. A crisis of one’s own: The politics of trauma in Europe’s election year

Author:
Ivan Krastev and Mark Leonard
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
Abstract:
European politics is not simply divided between left and right, and between pro- and anti-European integration attitudes – but between different ‘crisis tribes’ whose members have been traumatised by key events. In the last decade, Europe has undergone crises of the economy, security, health, climate, and migration, which have created political identities that run through and between countries. Germany is the only country whose citizens select ‘immigration’ as the issue that has affected them above all else. In France and Denmark, people choose climate change as the most important crisis. Italians and Portuguese point to global economic turmoil. In Spain, Great Britain, and Romania, the covid-19 pandemic is the principal issue. Estonians, Poles, and Danes consider the war in Ukraine to be the most transformative of crises. In the upcoming European Parliament election, covid-19, the economy, and Ukraine are unlikely to be key mobilising issues. The climate and migration crises are dominating headlines and will be especially influential in how people vote.
Topic:
Climate Change, Immigration, Elections, Trauma, European Parliament, and Regional Politics
Political Geography:
Europe

7. Navigating the New Pact on Migration and Asylum in the shadow of Non-Europe

Author:
Alberto-Horst Neidhardt
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
In December 2023, the European Parliament and Council secured a political agreement on the New Pact on Migration and Asylum, bringing the reforms closer to implementation. Some see the measures as a political victory for European policymakers, clearing the way for more unified responses. However, the regulations could in fact lead to an 'age of non-Europe' in migration and asylum policy. This Discussion Paper analyses the issues arising from the reforms, which could consolidate states' power at the expense of community decision-making. Additionally, there is uncertainty about how the new system will function and its impact on the ground. This may lead member states to push even harder to outsource responsibilities to third countries outside the EU’s scrutiny. This is not the time for complacency. Attention must be devoted to the finalisation of the legislative texts and the development of implementation plans, as well as the identification of systemic and long-term needs, from financial support to monitoring.
Topic:
Migration, Treaties and Agreements, Asylum, European Parliament, and Council of Europe
Political Geography:
Europe

8. Shared Liability: The European Parliament’s Misstep in Fighting Financial Fraud

Author:
Matthias Bauer, Andrea Dugo, and Dyuti Pandya
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
European Centre for International Political Economy (ECIPE)
Abstract:
The rise in financial fraud has prompted regulatory proposals under the Payment Services Regulation in the form of a shared liability model provisioned under Article 59. The potential proposal by the European Parliament could now extend liability beyond Payment Service Providers to Electronic Communications Service Providers and online platforms. While the intent to address fraud is commendable, this model misallocates responsibilities by requiring non-financial entities to oversee fraudulent activities, despite their lack of visibility and technical control over financial transactions. Extending liability to non-financial entities risks undermining consumer vigilance and diluting payment services providers’ efforts to maintain fraud awareness. A shared liability regime covering non-financial entities would also disproportionately burden smaller “digital” firms, leading to legal uncertainties, costly legal disputes, and market exits. This would not only drive market concentration and reduce competition in digital services but also undermine EU and Member State efforts to support Europe’s lagging digital start-ups and scale-ups. The resulting harm to innovation and entrepreneurship would be a significant setback to the EU’s broader digital ambitions.
Topic:
European Union, Regulation, Services, European Parliament, Fraud, and Liability
Political Geography:
Europe

9. EU Seeks Greater Transparency in Wake of EP Corruption Scandal

Author:
Tomasz Zając
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The European Parliament (EP) corruption scandal, which began with the arrests of then current or former MEPs last December, showed that the mechanisms in place to ensure institutional transparency do not sufficiently protect against the influence of non-EU countries. In addition, the parliament’s internal standards are of limited effectiveness as penalties for non-compliance are not very severe and rarely applied. The effect of the scandal will most likely be to further increase the transparency of EP conduct. The probability of a new body to monitor ethical issues in EU institutions has also increased.
Topic:
Corruption, European Union, Transparency, and European Parliament
Political Geography:
Europe

10. Towards common accord? The European Union contemplates treaty change

Author:
Andrew Duff
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Policy Centre (EPC)
Abstract:
Numerous events have conspired to tempt the European Union to reform the way it is governed. Present constitutional arrangements were laid down in the Treaty of Lisbon in 2007 and are long overdue for revision. In recent months, parallel efforts have been made by the European Parliament and European Commission to articulate a prospectus for treaty amendment. The Council remains fearful and inarticulate, divided over the content and timing of any such reform. Andrew Duff returns to the current debate with a Discussion Paper analysing the EU treaty change. He previews emerging proposals from the European Parliament and European Commission, referring to the recent report of the Franco-German experts as well as other relevant contributions.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, European Union, Regional Integration, European Parliament, and European Commission
Political Geography:
Europe