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1062. Global Energy Markets in a Time of Political Change
- Author:
- Bill White
- Publication Date:
- 10-2011
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Aspen Institute
- Abstract:
- A shift in relative energy consumption among regions and the development of new, unconventional supplies will be the most significant changes over the next twenty years. The dominant fuels in the world energy market until 2030 will continue to be hydrocarbons — oil, coal, and natural gas. Major shifts will occur, however, among the three fuels, among regions and in their supply. Globally, oil will continue to be the most widely used fuel as it supplies more than 90 percent of the energy for transportation. Coal, now the dominant fuel used for electric power generation, will lose ground to natural gas, a less carbon-intensive hydrocarbon. Natural gas will become the second largest overall supplier and well positioned to replace coal as the leading supplier for electric power. Developing countries will lead the way in overall energy growth, with Chinese and Indian energy demand growing fastest. Energy demand in developed countries will remain flat. For the United States, growth in gas shale and oil shale are likely to be “game changers,” altering the supply picture dramatically.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Markets, Political Economy, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and India
1063. Primary Energy and Transportation Fuels and the Energy and Water Nexus: Ten Challenges
- Author:
- Blythe Lyons
- Publication Date:
- 11-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- A substantive dialogue has emerged in the United States under the rubric of "the energy and water nexus," representing the deepening understanding of the circular relationship between water and energy. Both are essential building blocks of US economic and physical security, and interface with efforts to improve health and prosperity. On a national level, the criticality of this relationship to economic and public prosperity is often ignored, as energy and water impacts are largely specific to a watershed or a local surface water source. The United States today needs new policies and significant infrastructure investment in order to meet the increasing demand for water and energy, while dealing with the constraints of growing water scarcity and potential threats to water quality.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Environment, Oil, Natural Resources, Water, and Biofuels
- Political Geography:
- United States
1064. Environmental diplomacy: Saving the Sundarbans and restoring the India-Bangladesh relationship
- Author:
- Shloka Nath
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Gateway House: Indian Council on Global Relations
- Abstract:
- Gateway House’s Shloka Nath examines the causes of disagreements between India and Bangladesh, and makes recommendations to resolve them – which can lead to an intelligent management and protection of the Sunderbans. In January 2010, Jairam Ramesh, then India’s energetic Environment Minister, while on a visit to Kolkata, displayed once again his penchant for the big idea. Together with his counterpart from Bangladesh, he announced both countries were joining hands to protect the Sundarbans from environmental degradation and stated that the proposed Indo-Bangladesh Sundarbans Eco-System Forum, which is currently in the planning stages, will be made functional by the second half of 2011. In October 2010, a draft protocol to be signed by both nations was approved by the Bangladesh cabinet at a meeting chaired by Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Using bilateral environmental concerns to foster broader regional cooperation is an innovative idea and the first of its kind for India and Bangladesh. For both countries, this is a unique foreign policy opportunity. In an exclusive interview with Gateway House in September 2010, Ramesh said, “Environmental diplomacy and environmental cooperation can often be triggers for enhancing broader regional cooperation. It helps to build trust, gets your people working with each other, learning from each other, and breaking down barriers. I hope to see more of this going forward.” The timing of the statement could not have been better; if the aspiration of Jairam Ramesh can be realised, not only will the fractious Indo-Bangla relationship be repaired, but the Sundarbans, the world’s largest mangrove forest spanning a vast territory of over 10,000 sq. km. can also be saved. Sitting on the sensitive border between India and Bangladesh, the Sundarbans is one of the most endangered eco-systems in the world. Approximately 60 percent lies in Bangladesh and 40 percent in India. The problems that surround it have the potential to advance the relationship between these two important South Asian neighbours; given the magnitude of the difficulties, the converse is equally true.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, Regional Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, Water, Refugees, and Maritime
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh, South Asia, and India
1065. Links with East Asia for a recovery from the Great East Japan Earthquake: Geographical Simulation Analysis
- Author:
- Ikumo Isono and Fukunari Kimura
- Publication Date:
- 08-2011
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA)
- Abstract:
- Japan is now struggling for a recovery from the devastating earthquake and tsunami of March 11, 2011. Although trunk logistic infrastructure has quickly been restored, some local infrastructure is likely to take a longer time to re-establish. The theory of new economic geography suggests that temporary interruption of infrastructure services may generate long-term negative effects on the Tohoku region and Japan as a whole because some of the economic activities may move away. We argue that strengthening links with East Asia is a key supplementary policy for achieving a full economic recovery. Our Geographical Simulation Model assesses economic effects of several policy scenarios.
- Topic:
- Environment, Natural Disasters, Infrastructure, Recovery, and Geography
- Political Geography:
- Japan, East Asia, and Asia
1066. Where was united Africa in the climate change negotiations?
- Author:
- Jean-Christophe Hoste
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- EGMONT - The Royal Institute for International Relations
- Abstract:
- A political commitment was reached in Copenhagen between five countries: US, China, India Brazil and South Africa. The rest of the conference simply “took note of it”, most with resignation, many with anger. This policy brief will have a closer look at the climate change negotiations from an African perspective. It will try to answer three questions to see whether the outcome of the negotiations was as unacceptable as South Africa said it was. First, what was the African Common Position and what were some of their demands? Second, how did the negotiating strategy to defend the African Common Position on climate change evolve? Third, why did South Africa call the agreement it negotiated with the US, China and India unacceptable but did it not decline to be part of that deal?
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Globalization, International Cooperation, Politics, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, India, South Africa, and Brazil
1067. Reaching Tipping Point? Climate change and poverty in Tajikistan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- The people of Tajikistan, a small, mountainous country in Central Asia, are experiencing the impacts of climate change. More frequent droughts and heightened extreme weather conditions are hitting poor communities, eroding their resilience. The country's glaciers are melting, bringing the danger, in the future, of greater water shortages and even disputes in the wider region. Last summer's unusually good rains and consequent harvest brought some relief to rural communities across Tajikistan but the long-term trends are clear – and ominous.
- Topic:
- Climate Change and Environment
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Tajikistan
1068. The EU and the global climate regime: Getting back in the game
- Author:
- Anna Korppoo, Thomas Spencer, and Kristian Tangen
- Publication Date:
- 02-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The Copenhagen climate summit was seen as a set-back for the eu. It was left out of the final meeting between the usa and major developing countries which lead to the Copenhagen Accord, and had to accept a deal that fell below its expectations. Due to the impact of the economic crisis, the eu's current target of a unilateral 20 % reduction is no longer as impressive as it seemed in 2007–2008; this is undermining the eu's claim to leadership. In order to match the higher pledges of Japan, Australia and the us, as well as shoulder its fair share of the industrialized countries' aggregate 30 % reduction, the eu would have to pledge a 35 % reduction. The eu's practise of attaching conditionalities to its higher target gives it very little leverage. However, there might be a case for the eu to move unilaterally to a 30 % reduction in order to accelerate the decarbonisation of its economy and capture new growth markets. Doing so could support stronger policy development in other countries such as Australia and Japan, and help rebuild trust among developing countries. But on its own it would be unlikely to have a substantial impact on the position of the other big players—the usa, China, India, and Brazil. The incoherence of the eu's support of a “singe legal outcome” from the Copenhagen summit, based on the elements of the Kyoto Protocol, was a major cause for its isolation. The us remains domestically unable to commit to this type of a ratifiable treaty while developing countries are not yet ready to commit to absolute targets. A return to a two-track approach, involving the continuation of the Kyoto Protocol and the negotiation of a new instrument for the usa and major developing countries, may be a more politically and practically feasible approach, while retaining the goal of working towards a legally binding instrument for all key participants over time.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Japan, China, Europe, India, Brazil, and Australia
1069. Madagascar : sortir du cycle de crises
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Madagascar est en crise depuis les troubles sanglants qui l'ont secoué début 2009. Plusieurs mois de médiation sous l'égide de l'Union africaine (UA), entre autres, n'ont pas permis de débloquer la situation. Malgré la signature de plusieurs documents, et l'annonce de l'Union africaine de sanctions individuelles contre les membres du regime le 17 mars, les négociations n'ont pas abouti, principalement à cause du refus du gouvernement Rajoelina de mettre en oeuvre le partage du pouvoir accepté à Maputo en août. Bien que la violence ait été contenue depuis qu'il a pris le pouvoir en mars 2009, la légitimité du régime est remise en question tant à l'intérieur du pays qu'à l'extérieur, alors qu'une situation économique difficile pèse lourdement sur une population déjà appauvrie. Pour éviter toute escalade, la médiation devrait cesser d'essayer de mettre en place une transition fondée sur un partage du pouvoir, et tenter plutôt d'obtenir un accord sur la rédaction consensuelle d'une nouvelle constitution et l'organisation rapide d'élections sous supervision internationale
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Economics, Environment, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Africa
1070. Decarbonization Strategies: How Much, How, Where and Who Pays for Δ ≤ 2 ̊ C?
- Author:
- Urjit R. Patel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- At a panel discussion at the London School of Economics (LSE) in early October, I said in my concluding remarks that while I was not optimistic about the likelihood of a robust global climate deal at Copenhagen, “there seemed to be a strong consensus in world capitals for a weak agreement.” Well, I was more or less right. We ended up with something rather ineffectual: a less than unanimous declaratory announcement (of feeble aims), although they call it an accord; and, in any case, it is neither a treaty nor even a binding commitment underpinned in law. In fact, domestic politics and the recession have probably put paid to hopes for a precise emissions quota-focused treaty in the near term. At any rate, a legally binding multilateral document is hardly sufficient: emission outcomes even under the formally binding Kyoto Protocol with a built-in enforcement mechanism are widely perceived to have been inadequate.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Globalization, International Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
- Political Geography:
- London