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1. The end of the energy price crisis must not mean the end of the energy transition

Author:
Valérie Plagnol
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
In many respects, Europe has recently experienced a rude awakening, albeit a salutary one. Barely recovered from the Covid pandemic, it has had to contend with the most serious energy supply crisis since the oil shocks of the 1970s, due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent disruption of Russian gas supplies, particularly via the Nord Stream pipelines. After electricity prices rose to extreme levels, their recent decline in Europe is particularly welcome. But this respite is far from enough. On the one hand, electricity prices are still higher than before the crisis and, on the other hand, they remain almost twice as high as those of our main trading partners, weighing on household purchasing power and business competitiveness. Such constraints, combined with rising geostrategic and trade tensions and the need to strengthen our common defence, have led some segments of European public opinion, including some economic actors, to question the efforts undertaken in the energy and climate transition. However, there can be no question of abandoning the path of energy transition, as the current tensions confirm the necessity and legitimacy of this approach. - This is, of course, about our climate future: numerous and consistent studies show that doing nothing rather than taking action will cost our economies and ourselves much more. - Geopolitical and economic tensions are accentuating the convergence between these imperatives and the need to strengthen our sovereignty, through diversification of supply sources and greater control of production cycles on our own soil. - The growing electrification of uses is generating a new industrial revolution – particularly in the mobility and artificial intelligence sectors – creating an economic and ecological dynamic that Europe is in a position to capture. Combining these imperatives therefore means accelerating the transition to energy and decarbonising our consumption. The current crisis has shown us that massive reliance on natural gas cannot be as stable a transition solution as we had hoped. Rising electricity prices have led to an acceleration of renewable energy projects and installations. More Member States support the development of nuclear power, better integrated into the overall mix and included in the European taxonomy. France, which is committed to renewing its facilities, is at the forefront of these efforts. Finally, strengthening and reorganising our electricity networks, including the development of interconnections, is already at the heart of our industrial strategies.
Topic:
Electricity, COVID-19, Energy Crisis, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

2. Unlocking India’s Energy Transition: Opportunities, Challenges, and the Role of Cross-Subsidies

Author:
Fatima Mumtaz
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
This paper examines India’s opportunities and challenges in unlocking its clean energy transition. While the country has made significant advancements in expanding its renewable energy capacity, structural inefficiencies within the electricity sector continue to hinder progress. A key barrier is the cross-subsidy pricing mechanism, which charges commercial and industrial users higher electricity tariffs to subsidize power for agricultural and residential consumers. Although originally intended to promote equity, this mechanism has, over time, contributed to mounting debts for power distribution companies, ultimately weakening the financial health of the electricity grid. This paper provides an analysis of the consequences of the cross-subsidy electricity pricing mechanism. It further explores how a phased approach to reforming this pricing structure could offer a viable pathway to address the financial instability of the power distribution companies.
Topic:
Climate Change, Electricity, Renewable Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

3. From Trade to Supply Chain Investments: China’s Three Roles in the Solar Surge of the Gulf Region

Author:
Qi Wang
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
This paper examines China’s evolving role in the solar energy surge of the Gulf region, with a focus on the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. It identifies three approaches through which China has progressively deepened its participation: (1) large-scale export of solar products, (2) investment and construction of solar power projects, and (3) offshore investment in local solar manufacturing bases in the Gulf. These approaches reflect not only China’s response to ambitious green energy commitments and rising solar demand in the Gulf, but also the strategic efforts of China’s solar industry to address domestic overcapacity under the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative and mitigate growing trade protectionism. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for China and the Gulf countries to strengthen solar cooperation, tackle trade barriers, and ensure a balanced, transparent, and sustainable energy transition.
Topic:
Investment, Trade, Solar Power, Supply Chains, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
China, Middle East, Asia, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

4. Colombia's Just Energy Transition

Author:
Patricia Rodríguez
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
Abstract:
President Gustavo Petro is leading the way in promoting a fossil fuel phase-out in South America and beyond, but there are challenges and contradictions in Colombia’s actions at home.
Topic:
Climate Change, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Colombia and South America

5. Building a path toward global deployment of fusion: Nonproliferation and export considerations

Author:
Sachin Desai, Michael Hua, Amy Roma, Jessica Bufford, Jacqueline Siebens, and Andrew Proffitt
Publication Date:
04-2025
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Commercial fusion is on the horizon, with many experts arguing that fusion power plants could put electrons on the grid by the end of this decade. However, there are questions around the process for regulating fusion power plants. In this Atlantic Council issue brief, authors Sachin S. Desai, Michael Y. Hua, Amy C. Roma, Jessica A. Bufford, Jacqueline E. Siebens, and J. Andrew Proffitt explore pathways to address regulation, nonproliferation, and export considerations for fusion technologies. They argue that fusion power plants should be regulated in a pathway that is separate from the regulatory pathways established for fission reactors, especially since the materials and processes involved in fusion power plants are significantly different from fission reactors.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Nonproliferation, Exports, Renewable Energy, Nuclear Energy, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

6. Decentralising the Just Energy Transition: The role of the private sector in supporting municipalities

Author:
Mmabatho Mongae and Nnaemeka Ohamadike
Publication Date:
03-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Good Governance Africa (GGA)
Abstract:
With nearly 86% of its carbon dioxide (CO2) coming from coal, South Africa is one of the world’s most coaldependent countries.1 Additionally, it produces nearly a quarter of the continent’s total carbon emissions.2 Its economy is highly dependent on agriculture and mineral extraction, which are energy-intensive. Importantly, South Africa is subject to climate variability and change.3 The effects are exacerbated by dysfunctional municipalities’ limited ability to build climate resilience systems and ensure robust disaster risk management. With local government administrative instability, service delivery failures, and financial mismanagement highlighted by Good Governance Africa’s (GGA) Governance Performance Index (GPI), societal stakeholders bear the brunt of dysfunction, particularly amidst escalating climate-induced natural disasters, which further strain government resources. As such, the fight against climate change requires a coordinated response from government, the private sector, and citizens. Presently, citizens do not identify the private sector as a key stakeholder in mitigating climate change. This suggests that the private sector does not have a visible presence in the fight against climate change, thereby presenting the private sector with an opportunity to support the decentralisation of the just energy transition. These efforts can also form part of attempts by the private sector to mainstream Environmental, Social, and Corporate Governance (ESG) best practices.
Topic:
Climate Change, Governance, Economy, Carbon Emissions, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and South Africa

7. European Solar PV Manufacturing: Terminal Decline or Hope for a Rebirth?

Author:
Thibaud Voïta
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
While solar photovoltaic (PV) installations are booming in Europe (and in other parts of the world), the local industry is closing down. Over the past two years, the European installed solar PV capacity has been multiplied by two. On the other hand, the remaining European manufacturers of solar PV panels are dying. Installed solar PV capacities are experiencing an unprecedented increase in Europe: in two years, they have been multiplied by two with 60 gigawatts (GW) added in 2023. However, local solar PV manufacturers are not benefiting from it as the Chinese competition is knocking them down. Structurally much more competitive, prices of Chinese solar panels have further decreased by 42% in 2023 – making it difficult even for some Chinese companies to survive and forcing many of the remaining European manufacturers out of the market. This situation fragilizes Europe’s strategic autonomy and decarbonization. Covid-19-like disruption or an aggression against Taiwan would leave the continent without any supply. American manufacturers are also flexing their muscles with the aggressive Inflation Reduction Act. Europe’s answer, the Net Zero Industry Act (NZIA), a tougher approach to China’s imports and national support measures, could create a new generation of solar PV manufacturers in Europe.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Renewable Energy, Solar Power, Decarbonization, Strategic Autonomy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe

8. The Prospects of Indonesia’s Nickel Boom Amidst a Systemic Challenge from Coal

Author:
Thibault Michel
Publication Date:
05-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
Indonesia is a country that is booming economically and demographically. This not only matters for regional political and energy security, but also increasingly, for the world’s energy transitions, due to Indonesia’s large metal reserves, as well as its equally important coal consumption in industry and for power generation. Over the last 20 years, Indonesia’s economy has been characterized by very dynamic growth, massive increases in its electricity demand, and coal consumption and exports. Hence, its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are on a steady growth trajectory, although the country has committed to lowering them by 32% (unconditional) or 41% (conditional) by 2030. With its Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) membership application, occurring in the context of global energy transition requirements and geopolitical confrontations, Indonesia is today at a crossroads. Indonesia has 42% of the world’s nickel reserves, as well as substantial reserves of copper, gold, tin, and, notably, coal. This wealth in natural resources has given the mining industry crucial importance in Indonesia’s economic growth and has recently taken an even more prominent place: Indonesia has managed to become the world’s largest nickel producer within just a few years, as its share in global nickel extraction grew from 5% in 2015 to 50% in 2023. The country is also the world’s third copper ore exporter. Coal and energy transition minerals have progressively replaced oil and gas in Indonesian exports. Between 2011 and 2023, oil and gas exports fell by nearly two-thirds and their share in the national exports decreased from 20% to 6%. In 2023, export revenues from copper were larger than those of oil and equal to gas earnings. Yet, having major mineral deposits and mining activities is no longer considered sufficient by the Indonesian government. So far, the mineral industry’s growth has relied hugely on Chinese investments and on low-added-value activities, especially in pyrometallurgy processing. Diversification of trade partners and expansion into new, entire value chains is, therefore, a key objective for the Indonesian government. Indonesia is seeking to boost trade with the United States (US), the European Union (EU) and even the Eurasian Economic Union. However, negotiations over respective agreements are currently encountering hurdles due to American legislation (the Inflation Reduction Act and Foreign Entities of Concern status), which could seriously threaten Indonesian exports of battery mineral components to the US market while they also face hurdles to entering the EU due to environmental regulations. The second part of Indonesia’s strategy focuses on the development of new industrial segments of value chains: refining facilities, hydrometallurgical processing plants, battery factories, etc. To develop these activities, the Indonesian government is using two main tools: the divestment of foreign companies in local firms and export bans on crude ore exports. Such bans have been introduced for nickel in 2020 and for bauxite in 2023, while they are expected for copper in 2024 and perhaps even later for tin. Indonesia is today also confronted with the negative repercussions of mining activities on its soil, including protests over the lack of safety in its mines and smelters, citizens’ expropriations, the presence of indigenous tribes on mining sites, and, above all, damage to the environment. Such damage also has its roots in the substantial amounts of energy used to feed smelters, which mostly rely on the use of coal. Decarbonizing Indonesia’s economy has thus become a central challenge for the country, where the consequences of climate change are already palpable on the archipelago’s soil, with extreme weather events and the sinking of the capital city – Jakarta – as sea levels rise. To carry out the tremendous transformation towards net-zero emissions while ensuring steady and sustainable development, the country has signed a Just Energy Transition Partnership and prepared decarbonization scenarios within this framework. Key priorities in the coming years include renewable energy deployment, grid development and an early phase-out of coal. Deploying renewable energy sources as well as large and resilient grids is made more difficult by the country’s geography. The archipelago includes 17,000 islands, some of them being undeveloped, hard to access and far away from each other. Furthermore, the levelized costs of solar and wind power are currently high in Indonesia compared with other developing countries, while public subsidies for coal do not favor low carbon generation sources. If the two first points are thus very challenging, the last one appears to be the hardest, considering the Indonesian economy’s tremendous dependency on coal. Concerns are therefore rising about Indonesia’s ability and even willingness to pursue a genuine, albeit differentiated decarbonization pathway. There are also many questions regarding Indonesia’s mineral trade strategy. New bans on crude ore exports are expected to come into force, while new mining and mineral processing operations are under development across the archipelago, as quantities of nickel produced in the country are at historic highs. This extraordinary increase in nickel production, concomitant with a global economic slowdown, has resulted in a sharp fall in nickel prices, with nickel losing half of its value between January 2023 and February 2024. As a result, many producers are finding themselves in danger, especially in Australia or New Caledonia. While there could be a deliberate strategy to flood the markets and neutralize competition, notably by Chinese companies that control 75% of the global nickel supply (mainly from Indonesia but also from the Philippines), the country faces serious dilemmas. Indonesia’s oil and gas production is diminishing, and it increasingly relies on nickel exports and higher nickel prices for its economic stability, with coal also remaining very important. Indonesia’s resource nationalism and industrial strategy, which include attracting foreign investments, notably via its OECD membership pledge, require a credible pathway to reduce the carbon footprint of its electricity generation. Among the pathways towards both decarbonization and the development of industrial battery value chains, three steps could be considered: Deploying renewable energy sources, especially solar photovoltaic (PV) power and offshore wind farms, as well as progressively transferring subsidies from coal to renewable energy sources. Developing a clean battery industry based on high environmental, social and governance (ESG) criteria and on the wealth of Indonesia’s subsoil, which includes most of the metals used in battery manufacturing. Protecting climate and biodiversity by favoring innovative solutions for mining waste management and upholding high ESG standards.
Topic:
Natural Resources, Electricity, Coal, Lithium, Minerals, Energy Transition, and Nickel
Political Geography:
Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific

9. The flaws in project-based carbon credit trading and the need for jurisdictional alternatives

Author:
Byron Swift, Ken Berlin, George Frampton, and Frank Willey
Publication Date:
04-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
This issue brief highlights several significant, and at times unresolvable, problems with the project-based approach to carbon credit trading, the purpose of which is to reduce deforestation and sequester carbon. Beginning with first-hand observations of the principal author during his experience with forest conservation efforts in the tropics, the brief describes the challenges that arise when this crediting model is implemented in the field, particularly in rainforests and other remote areas of the world. The publication then assesses the three critical structural problems with project-based credit trading that lead to a fundamental lack of integrity in such programs: The intractable challenges of a project-based regulatory structure involving difficult-to-prove requirements of additionally and leakage prevention. The major transaction and intermediary costs that can amount to half of project funding. The credit duration that is far less than the life of the additional CO2 emissions that are consequently emitted. The analysis also explains how economic forces and incentives exacerbate these problems, particularly with programs that are carried out by commercial credit traders as opposed to nonprofit entities. Finally, this brief discusses better alternatives, such as jurisdictional programs administered by governments or Indigenous associations, that could more effectively reduce emissions and strengthen the social fabric of communities required to assure credit integrity, accurate measurement, and adequate co-benefits.
Topic:
Climate Change, Environment, Markets, Governance, Carbon Emissions, Energy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

10. Smarter European Union industrial policy for solar panels

Author:
Ben McWilliams, Simone Tagliapietra, and Cecilia Trasi
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Bruegel
Abstract:
The European Union plans a major increase in solar PV capacity from 263 GW today to almost 600 GW by 2030. If nothing changes, this expansion will be based almost exclusively on solar panels imported from China, which supplies over 95 percent of solar panels used in the EU. This dependence has raised concerns about EU economic security and geopolitical vulnerabilities, especially in light of recent global disruption. The EU has agreed in principle a non-binding 40 percent self-sufficiency benchmark for solar panels and other identified strategic technologies, to be approached or achieved by 2030. However, for the solar sector specifically, there is no strong economic justification for an import-substitution approach. Such a strategy risks increasing the costs of solar panels, slowing deployment and creating industries that are over-reliant on subsidies. EU solar manufacturing subsidies are not appropriate based on criteria of European production alone. Subsidies could, however, be justified on innovation grounds, by supporting new solar products that have a real chance to develop into sustainable industries that contribute to climate goals. To address concerns about short-term dependence, alternative tools should be employed: accelerated solar deployment, strategic stockpiling and gradually diversifying import sources. In the longer term, recycling of solar panels deserves greater attention and funding. In terms of strengthening economic resilience relative to China, Europe should implement an industrial policy that intervenes in sectors that are more likely to contribute to sustainable economic growth and alleviate decarbonisation bottlenecks.
Topic:
Industrial Policy, European Union, Imports, Solar Power, Economic Security, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Europe