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21. Senegal’s Gas-to-Power Ambitions: Securing Scale and Sustainability

Author:
Papa Daouda Diene, Thomas Scurfield, Aaron Sayne, and Jessica Obeid
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Senegal will benefit from generating electricity from some of its gas, but authorities should carefully consider the scale of the country’s “gas-to-power” ambitions and how they relate to its renewable energy plans. This is a pivotal moment for achieving the government’s energy and sustainable development objectives. Recent plans to develop over 3 gigawatts (GW) of gas-to-power capacity by 2050 may face obstacles. Senegal may not be able to extract enough gas to feed the power plants; it may also struggle to raise sufficient funds (at least USD 2.2 billion) to build the necessary infrastructure. A more balanced energy mix, with a stronger emphasis on renewables alongside gas, offers Senegal a more secure pathway, but necessitates a cohesive long-term strategy and international support. Senegal’s participation in a Just Energy Transition Partnership (JETP) has led to increased medium-term renewable power generation goals—possibly to around 1 GW by 2030. To reach them, Senegal’s development partners must deliver the promised financial and technical support. If Senegal realizes only those plans that are published, gas will comprise 75 percent of installed capacity in the long term. The absence of a long-term plan for renewables could lock the country into this large role for gas, inhibiting the intended catalytic effect of the JETP and preventing the government from fully leveraging the country’s solar and wind potential. A more transparent and inclusive approach will help Senegal’s government to refine and implement its energy plans, helping to manage public expectations, foster public trust and increase credibility with investors.
Topic:
Gas, Fossil Fuels, Sustainability, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Africa and Senegal

22. Responsible Exit Principles for Oil and Gas Companies

Author:
Nicola Woodroffe and Erica Westenberg
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Natural Resource Governance Institute
Abstract:
Asset transfers in the oil and gas industry are not new. Yet, as the energy transition accelerates, there is a growing risk that oil and gas companies sell assets in response to pressures to decarbonize. However, transferring assets to operators with lower standards can lead to higher emissions and increased risks. This briefing offers a framework to guide these transactions and ensure that environmental and operational integrity is upheld. Designed for use by a range of stakeholders, these principles set out best practices to help companies manage financial, legal, environmental and reputational risks during asset transfers. They were developed with input from representatives of the oil and gas industry; investors, the financial, legal and accounting professions; the insurance industry; standard-setting bodies; academia; and civil society. All stakeholders can adopt and refine these standards to support a responsible, low-emissions future and harmonize regulatory practices across the industry.
Topic:
Corruption, Environment, Oil, Gas, Accountability, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. Lebanon’s Solar Rollout: In What Ways Has It Been an Unjust Energy Transition?

Author:
Yusra Bitar
Publication Date:
06-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Lebanon’s national electricity supply has nearly collapsed, with the country’s residents experiencing constant power cuts over the past three decades and total blackouts since 2020.1 This has led residents across the country to find their “coping strategies” - which have become somewhat normalized - to deal with the national shortages, including purchasing or subscribing to diesel generators.2 More recently, these coping strategies have started to include solar energy installations, which have been deemed revolutionary for Lebanon,3 although in reality, the story is much more complex. As the climate crisis worsens and global institutions start to advocate and fund just transitions,4 it is imperative to reflect on what this means to prevent the repetition of collective injustices. This paper briefly outlines the solar energy landscape in Lebanon and asks some questions about the country’s solar rollout, including who benefits from it and how, as well as how this process repeats past energy injustices. It then presents some case studies of initiatives that have addressed some community energy needs while offering lessons for future energy planning. The paper concludes with recommendations to policymakers, civil society organizations, and the private sector as they transition to solar energy.
Topic:
Environment, Solar Power, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

24. The caucasus: peace negotiations and the global energy transition

Author:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Publication Date:
09-2024
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has set in motion new security and power dynamics across the wider Black Sea region. The conflict, which continues to overwhelmingly preoccupy the Kremlin created a power vacuum in the South Caucasus and, in the aftermath of the recent series of wars over Karabakh, opened up space for peace negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan. These negotiations may not only lead to a normalization of Armenian-Azerbaijani ties following three decades of conflict but also open the possibility for reconciliation between Armenia and Turkey, with ample economic, political, and security effects for the entire region. Russia’s aggression has also created energy supply shortages in Europe, drawn the South Caucasus closer to the continent, and rushed the energy transition in many instances. Azerbaijan is becoming an ever more important energy supplier to European customers. At the same time, Baku is investing in key renewable energy projects, with an eye to becoming a major clean electricity exporter, and is set to host the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) in November 2024. This panel discussion brings together two of this year’s Black Sea Program Title VIII research fellows to present their findings on the South Caucasus in the context of new security arrangements, peace negotiations, and the global energy transition. The research fellowships are granted by the US State Department for the Middle East Institute’s Black Sea Program
Topic:
Renewable Energy, Armed Conflict, Regional Politics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

25. Distributional Implications and Share Ownership of Record Oil and Gas Profits

Author:
Gregor Semienuk, Isabella M. Weber, Iain Weaver, Evan Wasner, Benjamin Braun, Philip B. Holden, Pablo Salas, Jean-Francois Mercure, and Neil R. Edwards
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
The 2022 oil and gas crisis resulted in record fossil-fuel profits globally that rehabilitated the oil and gas industry, obstruct the energy transition and contributed to inflation. We analyse the size and the distribution of financial beneficiaries of these unprecedented profits across countries and across wealth groups within the United States, using company income statements and comprehensive ownership data, to construct a global network of shareholdings with 397,619 nodes. We estimate that globally, net income in publicly listed oil and gas companies reached US$916 billion in 2022. The United States was the biggest beneficiary receiving US$301 billion in fossil fuel profits both from domestic extraction and through global shareholding, more than U.S. investments of US$267 billion in the low carbon economy that year. Analyzing the U.S. distribution including privately held US companies, 51% of profits went to the wealthiest 1%, predominantly through direct shareholdings and private company ownership. In contrast the bottom 50% only received 1%. The incremental fossil-fuel profits in 2022 over those in 2021 were enough to increase the disposable income of the wealthiest Americans several percent and compensate a substantial part of their purchasing power loss from inflation that year, thereby exacerbating inflation inequality. Record fossil-fuel profits also reinforce existing racial and ethnic inequalities and inequalities between groups with different educational attainments. Our results also show that only a small share of overall profits benefits institutions that serve the wider public such as pension funds. We discuss how windfall profits taxes could be used to both lower inequality and accelerate the energy transition as increasing geopolitical tensions and climate impacts portend continued volatility in oil and gas markets.
Topic:
Oil, Gas, Inflation, Fossil Fuels, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

26. China Will Step Up if the US Falls Behind on Climate Action

Author:
Pey Peili and Danielle Lynn Goh
Publication Date:
11-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Even under a second Trump administration, climate targets and negotiations will continue, with China stepping up to lead the global energy transition. Southeast Asia must brace itself for protectionist measures from the United States and China, and increased competition between the two in renewable energy.
Topic:
Climate Change, Renewable Energy, Donald Trump, Protectionism, Competition, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
China and Asia

27. Brazil-ASEAN Relations and the Energy Transition

Author:
Beatriz Pfeifer
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
Abstract:
On the occasion of the XXXII meeting of the Analysis Group on China, Ambassador Piragibe dos Santos Terragô, Nuki Agya Utama, Executive Director of the ASEAN Center for Energy (ACE) and Juliana Rangel do Nascimento, Energy Research Analyst at Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (EPE) share their views on Brazil-ASEAN relations and the opportunities for economic cooperation and tackling global challenges, cooperation in the energy sector and what benefits Brazil can derive from this partnership.
Topic:
International Relations, Climate Change, Partnerships, Economic Cooperation, ASEAN, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, Brazil, and South America

28. Energy Transition in the Eastern Mediterranean: Turning the East Mediterranean Gas Forum (EMGF) into a Regional Opportunity

Author:
Ioannis N. Grigoriadis and Deniz Çetin
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
Abstract:
This paper advocates a holistic approach transcending traditional energy security concepts, including a shift towards renewables, establishing regional energy markets, and focusing on cooperation rather than competition for long-term sustainability and socioeconomic development. The Eastern Mediterranean, identified as a hotspot of climate change is characterized by unsustainable energy practices, driven by high energy demand, low efficiency, and reliance on fossil fuels, which contributes to environmental and economic challenges. There is a need for the Eastern Mediterranean to transition to green energy, as a solution to energy problems and climate change risks. The European Union can play a key role in supporting this transition, aligning with the goals set on the European Green Deal and fostering cooperation with and among the Mediterranean states. The potential role of the East Mediterranean Gas Forum in regional energy cooperation is crucial. Expanding its scope beyond natural gas to renewable energy should emerge as a key priority.
Topic:
European Union, Renewable Energy, Regional Economy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
Eastern Mediterranean

29. What African producers of critical minerals can learn from Indonesia’s experience

Author:
Bradford Simmons
Publication Date:
12-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With its success in nickel production, Indonesia has become a model for those seeking to harness “resource nationalism” for domestic benefit. Substantial foreign investment, particularly from China, has been a key variable for Indonesia to become a globally relevant industrial center for nickel processing. While there are insightful lessons that policymakers from mineral-resource-rich African countries can learn from Indonesia, there must be caution in implementing some of Indonesia’s policies, especially export bans as they have had mixed results and depend heavily on external factors. Africa holds a third of the world’s mineral reserves, including critical minerals essential to the green energy transition. Yet, the continent remains underexplored, underdeveloped, and underfunded, receiving just 8–10% of global exploration and investment. Global demand for minerals like copper, nickel, cobalt, and lithium is expected to generate $16 trillion over the next 25 years, with sub-Saharan Africa potentially capturing $2 trillion. However, to realize this potential, Africa must shift from raw extraction to value-added processing. Developing local processing industries would boost economic diversification, job creation, tax revenues, and technological advancements while reducing dependency on raw-material exports. To achieve this, African governments must prioritize coherent, forward-looking policies that emphasize value creation. Commissioning technoeconomic studies to identify key supply chain opportunities will help guide investments. Establishing Special Economic Zones for critical minerals can attract international investors and foster industrial hubs. Leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area to create robust commodity markets would position Africa as a competitive player. Additionally, streamlining regulatory processes, supporting carbon-free power projects, and advancing infrastructure investments through global initiatives such as the US PGI and EU Global Gateway can facilitate critical mineral processing and transport networks. Export bans, though well-intentioned, often backfire. Historically, they have reduced exports, weakened global trade positions, and worsened infrastructure challenges in energy, transportation, and logistics. Without effective governance and political stability, such policies risk stalling economic growth rather than stimulating it. By focusing on industrial infrastructure, value-added processing, and policies that promote long-term diversification, African countries can move beyond the limitations of raw extraction. With transparent governance and strategic investments, the continent can transform its mineral wealth into a driver of sustainable economic development.
Topic:
Environment, Energy Transition, Critical Minerals, and International Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Indo-Pacific

30. China, climate change and the energy transition

Author:
Professor Xu Yi-Chong
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
This report surveys China’s enormous energy transition to renewables. It begins by sketching the energy challenges China faces and its climate-change-related energy policies, in the context of the global geopolitics of the energy transformation. Next the report focuses on conventional energy sources (oil and natural gas), followed by electricity, and energy technologies. Although the report is intended primarily to survey developments to date, it concludes with some brief observations about the considerable energy challenges China faces in the years ahead.
Topic:
Security, Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, and Energy Transition
Political Geography:
China and Asia