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231. Russia and the Global Meltdown: Domestic and Foreign Policy Responses to the International Financial Crisis

Author:
Robert Jellinek
Publication Date:
03-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This paper has its origins in the observation that government responses to the global financial crisis are as much political phenomena as they are economic. The current global financial crisis, among its many consequences, has on a very high level shaken up the world political order. And while the crisis is international in origin—its roots lie in the breadth and the degree of the dispersal of risk associated with mortgagebacked securities, as well as the growing imbalance in international capital flows—its resolution is necessarily being carried out first and foremost on a domestic level. This is not least of all because, in the decade since the Asian financial crises, states have begun to play a dramatically increased role in international finance in relation to both multilateral financial institutions such as the IMF and traditional private actors. In an age where global economic ties are integral to domestic economies and where states themselves are becoming some of the biggest players in international capital markets, a state's global financial standing will more than ever determine its political clout on the world stage. With states acting as market makers, lenders of last resort, and regulators of last resort, the key to understanding the future of individual states in the global economic order can be found only by analyzing states' domestic and foreign policy decisions within the context of the specific constraints facing those states at home and abroad.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Human Rights, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Russia and Asia

232. Emerging Market Business Cycles Revisited: Learning about the Trend

Author:
Emine Boz, Christian Daude, and Ceyhun Bora Durdu
Publication Date:
04-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
The data reveal that emerging markets do not differ from developed countries with regards to the variance of permanent TFP shocks relative to transitory. They do differ, however, in the degree of uncertainty agents face when formulating expectations. Based on these observations, we build an equilibrium business cycle model in which the agents cannot perfectly distinguish between the permanent and transitory components of TFP shocks. When formulating expectations, they assign some probability to TFP shocks being permanent even when they are purely transitory. This is sufficient for the model to produce "permanent-like" effects in response to transitory shocks. The imperfect information model calibrated to Mexico predicts a higher variability of consumption relative to output and a strongly negative correlation between the trade balance and output, without the predominance of trend shocks. The same model assuming perfect information and calibrated to Canada accounts for developed country business cycle regularities. The estimated relative variance of trend shocks in these two models is similar.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Markets
Political Geography:
Canada and Mexico

233. An Anatomy of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates and Micro Data

Author:
Enrique G. Mendoza and Marco E. Terrones
Publication Date:
07-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This paper proposes a methodology for measuring credit booms and uses it to identify credit booms in emerging and industrial economies over the past four decades. In addition, we use event study methods to identify the key empirical regularities of credit booms in macroeconomic aggregates and micro-level data. Macro data show a systematic relationship between credit booms and economic expansions, rising asset prices, real appreciations, widening external deficits and managed exchange rates. Micro data show a strong association between credit booms and firm-level measures of leverage, firm values, and external financing, and bank-level indicators of banking fragility. Credit booms in industrial and emerging economies show three major differences: (1) credit booms and the macro and micro fluctuations associated with them are larger in emerging economies, particularly in the nontradables sector; (2) not all credit booms end in financial crises, but most emerging markets crises were associated with credit booms; and (3) credit booms in emerging economies are often preceded by large capital inflows but not by financial reforms or productivity gains.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Markets

234. The Economics of Nuclear Energy Markets and the Future of International Security

Author:
Erwann O. Michel-Kerjan and Debra Decker
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
This paper discusses the evolution of nuclear energy markets and key drivers of the growing “nuclear renaissance.” We focus on uranium, the largest part of the nuclear fuel markets, and analyze market demand, supply, and prices since the 1970s. We review the forces impacting this market – historically and prospectively - and note proliferation concerns surrounding nuclear energy: i.e. the same facilities that enrich uranium for electricity generation can also enrich it further for nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Security, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, Markets, and Nuclear Weapons

235. Four “Poverty Traps” Are Part of Conundrum for Foreign Aid

Author:
Jim Kolbe
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
European Affairs
Institution:
The European Institute
Abstract:
Muddled thinking is dangerous for international development. For one thing, cost benefit arguments neglect the high price exacted by failed states. For another, as noted in an important new book, The Bottom Billion, some countries are trapped by special circumstances that need special remedies.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Emerging Markets, Humanitarian Aid, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

236. The Asian Financial Crisis, Uphill Flow of Capital, and Global Imbalances: Evidence from A Micro Study

Author:
Brahima Coulibaly and Jonathan Millar
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:
This study assesses the role of the Asian Önancial crisis of the late 1990s in the emergence and persistence of the large current account surpluses across non-China emerging Asia, which have been a signiÖcant counterpart to the U.S. current account deÖcit. Using panel data encompassing nearly 3,750 Örms, we trace the current account surpluses to a marked and broad-based decline in corporate expenditures on Öxed investment in the aftermath of the crisis that cuts across a wide spectrum of countries, industries, and Örms. The lower corporate spending in turn depressed aggregate investment rates, widened the saving-investment gap, and allowed the region to turn into a net exporter of capital. We then consider the factors behind this reduction in postcrisis corporate investment. While weaker Örm-level fundamentals in the postcrisis period seem to explain part of the drop in investment rates, ongoing re-structuring owing to large debts accumulated and excess investment undertaken in the run-up to the crisis has been the main source of restraint postcrisis corporate investment. The results suggest that even after a decade, the e§ect of the Önancial crisis is still a§ecting corporate investment decisions in emerging Asia, and that as the restructuring completes its course, investment rates will likely rise to contribute to a gradual reduction in the regionís current account surpluses.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Financial Crisis, Economic Inequality, and Investment
Political Geography:
Asia

237. Business Constraints and Growth Potential of Micro and Small Manufacturing Enterprises in Uganda

Author:
Esther K. Ishengoma and Robert Kappel
Publication Date:
05-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
Ugandan micro- and small enterprises (MSEs) still perform poorly. The paper utilizes data collected in Uganda in March and April 2003 to analyze the business constraints faced by these MSEs. Using a stratified random sampling, a sample of 265 MSEs were interviewed. The study focuses on the 105 manufacturing firms that responded to all questions. It examines the extent to which the growth of MSEs is associated with business constraints, while also controlling for owners' attributes and firms' characteristics. The results reveal that MSEs' growth potential is negatively affected by limited access to productive resources (finance and business services), by high taxes, and by lack of market access.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, and Political Economy
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

238. Energy Interests and Alliances: China, America and Africa

Author:
Danila Bochkarev, Angelica Austin, and Willem van der Geest
Publication Date:
08-2008
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
EastWest Institute
Abstract:
In the strategic policy communities of both the United States and China, there has been a knee-jerk blurring between competition in commerce between U.S. and Chinese energy firms and the potential for strategic competition by one country to deny resources to the other. A senior State Department official has described this sort of reaction as “exaggerated”. But the suspicion is there and it is ill-founded. It serves the interests of neither country. On the contrary, as this EWI Policy Paper suggests, energy security can become a rallying point in an otherwise difficult relationship. The two countries are now intensifying their interest and activities not just in each other's domestic energy sector but also in each other's role in a system of global energy security.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Political Economy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and China

239. Why Are Saving Rates of Urban Households in China Rising?

Author:
Eswar Prasad and Marcos Chamon
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
From 1995 to 2005, the average urban household saving rate in China rose by 7 percentage points, to about one quarter of disposable income. We use household-level data to explain why households are postponing consumption despite rapid income growth. Tracing cohorts over time indicates a virtual absence of consumption smoothing over the life cycle. Saving rates have increased across all demographic groups although the age profile of savings has an unusual pattern in recent years, with younger and older households having relatively high saving rates. We argue that these patterns are best explained by the rising private burden of expenditures on housing, education, and health care. These effects and precautionary motives may have been amplified by financial underdevelopment, as reflected in constraints on borrowing against future income and low returns on financial assets.
Topic:
Economics, Education, Emerging Markets, and Health
Political Geography:
China and Israel

240. Foreign Trade Specialization and International Competitiveness Of Greece, Portugal, Spain, Turkey and the EU 12

Author:
Bahri Yilmaz
Publication Date:
01-2008
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
Abstract:
The main purpose of this paper is to examine the foreign trade patterns and/or specialization in foreign trade of three EU member countries – namely, Greece, Portugal, Spain, and candidate country Turkey – and to compare the foreign trade patterns with the EU/12 in the period 1995- 2005. The paper is divided into seven main sections. The first section summarizes the export and import developments of the countries in question between the years 1995 and 2005. The second section describes the methodology and data sets. Empirical analysis is found in the third section, where in five subsections we investigate international competitiveness and trade specialization using different indices. In the fourth part of the research we compare the dynamic products in world exports with dynamic products in the exports of the four countries. The final section gives brief conclusions drawn from the results and considers the future position of Turkey within the enlarged EU. In this research we do not intend to explain why the foreign trade patterns are different in the considered countries. We simply try to show whether and where there are any differences in foreign trade specialisation among the four countries and EU/12.
Topic:
International Relations, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Spain, Portugal, and South Sudan