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181. The G20: Engine of Asian Regionalism?

Author:
Hugo Dobson
Publication Date:
11-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Abstract:
As a result of the emergence of the G20 as the self‐appointed “premier forum for international economic cooperation”, Asia's expanded participation in G‐summitry has attracted considerable attention. As original G7 member Japan is joined by Australia, China, Indonesia, India and South Korea, this has given rise to another alphanumeric configuration of the Asian 6 (A6). Resulting expectations are that membership in the G20 will impact Asian regionalism as the A6 are forced into coordination and cooperation in response to the G20's agenda and commitments. However, by highlighting the concrete behaviours and motivations of the individual A6 in the G20 summits so far, this paper stands in contrast to the majority of the predominantly normative extant literature. It highlights divergent agendas amongst the A6 as regards the future of the G20 and discusses the high degree of competition over their identities and roles therein. This divergence and competition can be seen across a range of other behaviours including responding to the norm of internationalism in promoting global governance and maintaining the status quo and national interest, in addition to claiming a regional leadership role and managing bilateral relationships with the US.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Indonesia, India, Asia, South Korea, and Australia

182. The Future of Convergence

Author:
Dani Rodrik
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Weatherhead Center for International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Novelists have a better track record than economists at foretelling the future. Consider then Gary Shteyngart's timely comic novel “Super Sad True Love Story” (Random House, 2010), which provides a rather graphic vision of what lies in store for the world economy. The novel takes place in the near future and is set against the backdrop of a United States that lies in economic and political ruin. The country's bankrupt economy is ruled with a firm hand by the IMF from its new Parthenon-shaped headquarters in Singapore. China and sovereign wealth funds have parceled America's most desirable real estate among themselves. Poor people are designated as LNWI (“low net worth individual s”) and are being pushed into ghettoes. Even skilled Americans are desperate to acquire residency status in foreign lands. (A degree in econometrics helps a lot, as it turns out). Ivy League colleges have adopted the names of their Asian partners and yuan-backed dollars are the only safe currency.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, Sovereign Wealth Funds, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, China, America, and Singapore

183. Industries in 2012: A report from the Economist Intelligence Unit

Author:
Steven Leslie
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Business executives are sour about 2012. However, they are much more negative about the prospects for the global economy than for their own industries, and especially for their own companies. These are the headline findings from a global survey of more than 900 corporate decisionmakers about their expectations for 2012.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, Global Recession, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Europe

184. Multilateralism in Trade at Risk: Should and Can we Rescue the Doha Round?

Author:
Jagdish Bhagwati, Pascal Lamy, Michael Moore, and Leif Pagrotsky
Publication Date:
12-2011
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
This World Leaders Forum program will feature an introduction by: - Pascal Lamy, Director-General of the World Trade Organization Followed by a panel discussion with: - Jagdish Bhagwati, University Professor of Economics Law, Columbia University; Economic Policy Adviser to Director General of GATT (1991-1993) - Michael Moore, Former Director General of World Trade Organization and Prime Minister of New Zealand; Ambassador of New Zealand to the United States - Leif Pagrotsky, Swedish Minister for Trade(1997-2004); currently member of the Swedish Parliament and of the Executive Board of the Social Democratic Party.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, International Affairs, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States and New Zealand

185. Asia and Global Financial Governance

Author:
C. Randall Henning and Mohsin S. Khan
Publication Date:
10-2011
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE)
Abstract:
Currently, Asia's influence in global financial governance is not consistent with its weight in the world economy. This paper examines the role of Asia in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Group of Twenty (G-20). It looks in particular at how the relationship between East Asian countries and the IMF has evolved since the Asian financial crisis of 1997–98 and outlines how Asian regional arrangements for crisis financing and economic surveillance could constructively interact with the IMF in the future. It also considers ways to enhance the effectiveness of Asian countries in the G-20 process.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Israel and Asia

186. Capital flows, the carry trade and 'sand in the wheels'

Author:
Stephen Grenville
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The 'carry trade', in which capital shifts from countries with low interest rates to countries with significantly higher rates, has become an important element of international capital flows over the past decade. With low interest rates in the United States, Japan, the UK and much of the rest of Europe expected to persist for some time, these flows seem likely to become larger in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis. Particularly for the emerging countries with shallow financial markets, interest-sensitive inflows have the potential to be disruptive. Exchange rates will tend to be overvalued for sustained periods, punctuated by sharp depreciations. These distorted and varying price signals will be unhelpful for good policy-making and steady economic growth.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Foreign Direct Investment, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, United Kingdom, and Europe

187. Developing Countries – even China – Cannot Rescue the World Economy

Author:
Manmohan Agarwal
Publication Date:
01-2010
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
Many analysts believe that developed countries will recover very slowly from the global economic crisis. Consequently, they have looked to the emerging economies of the developing world to help stabilize the world economy and generate a stronger recovery. Indeed, when the financial crisis first engulfed the rich countries in 2008 and early 2009, growth in developing economies was not affected as their banks and financial systems faced neither credit problems nor a more serious meltdown. It is true that some foreign investors, particularly institutional investors, withdrew their money from developing countries with large stock exchanges, setting off stock price declines and some currency devaluations. But this did not affect the “real” economy of production and employment. There was a wide belief that many developing economies were “decoupled” from the rich economies and could continue to grow and this growth would buoy the world economy. Even when output declined dramatically in the developed economies, reducing the demand for developing countries' exports, it was expected that growth in the larger emerging economies would not be significantly affected. This has been borne out by subsequent events. Growth in China has been 8-9 percent and in India about 6 percent in the first three quarters of 2009.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
China and India

188. Climate-Resilient Industrial Development Paths: Design Principles and Alternative Models

Author:
Lyuba Zarsky
Publication Date:
02-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:
Global climate change is here. According to recent scientific reports, the earth has warmed by nearly half a degree centigrade over the last twenty five years. Even with robust mitigation efforts, the global climate could warm by up to 4 degrees centigrade due to past emissions. Under a business-as -usual, high consumption fossil fuel-based development path, it could warm even more, resulting in catastrophic and life-threatening destruction of earth's eco-systems.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Environment, and Industrial Policy

189. Does Fairness Matter?

Author:
Hakan Altinay
Publication Date:
04-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
Worldwide, there has been a recent increase in expressions of cynicism. We are reminded that all power is hard power, and that being loved or respected is no substitute for being feared. The great power game of nations always continues, we are forewarned, even when a higher goal or rhetoric is evoked. Superpowers are selfish, arbitrary, and dangerous nations, and they should not be embarrassed to be so and not feel constrained by international legitimacy and laws. We are cautioned against assuming that the rise of the world's emerging powers is doing anything to the status of United States as the sole superpower. Naturally, it would be a folly to think that global public opinion is in effect a “second superpower,” or even a crucial factor. Such concerns are the Lilliputians binding an unsuspecting Gulliver. Anyone harboring naïve views needs to be told that good intentions are at best a distraction and a nuisance, and at worst a recipe for disaster, given their imprudence. Cynics prefer to be unconcerned about the achievements of transnational normative action, such as abolishing the slave trade or establishing the International Criminal Court.
Topic:
International Relations, Emerging Markets, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia, China, India, and Brazil

190. A New Strategy to Leverage Business for International Development

Author:
Robert Mosbacher, Jr.
Publication Date:
05-2010
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Brookings Institution
Abstract:
To tackle global poverty, it is essential to craft a new and dynamic approach to economic development that refl ects the realities of a 21st century global economy and incorporates the participation of a wide variety of new players, particularly from the private sector. While investment, trade and innovation all represent basic components of building healthy economies, this paper focuses primarily on strategies to increase both in-country and international private capital investment in order to create jobs. To that end, it concentrates on two areas: strengthening and reforming the existing structures, coordinating mechanisms and policies that support U. S. economic development efforts; and improving public-private partnership models to promote broader fi nancing to local businesses, greater human capital support and technical assistance and improved physical and ICT infrastructure.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Poverty, and Third World
Political Geography:
United States