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151. Global fiscal adjustment and trade rebalancing

Author:
YingYing Lu, Professor Warwick McKibbin, and Andrew Stoeckel
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The emergence of substantial fiscal deficits and a large build up of government debt in major advanced economies will inevitably lead to a period of fiscal consolidation in coming years. In an earlier paper, McKibbin and Stoeckel (2010) explored the effects of this fiscal adjustment in advanced economies on the global economic outlook. This paper focuses on the differences between the impacts of fiscal policy in advanced versus emerging economies. In particular, the need for more fiscal spending on infrastructure in emerging economies and the need for fiscal consolidation in advanced economies leads naturally to the question of what this asymmetric fiscal adjustment might do to global trade balances as well as global economic growth over the coming decades. The adjustment needed in both regions is substantial and the asymmetry of the adjustment implies important consequences for trade and capital flows between regions as well as asset price adjustments within and between regions.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Infrastructure, and Financial Crisis

152. State-controlled entities control nearly US$ 2 trillion in foreign assets

Author:
Karl P. Sauvant and Jonathan Strauss
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Columbia Center on Sustainable Investment
Abstract:
Developing country sovereign wealth funds (SWFs) as players in the world foreign direct investment (FDI) market have received considerable attention. While outward FDI from emerging markets has indeed risen dramatically, that by SWFs has been negligible: their outward FDI stock is around US$ 100 billion (compared to a world FDI stock of US$ 20 trillion in 2010).
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Government, International Law, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

153. MDGs 2.0: What Goals, Targets, and Timeframe?

Author:
Charles Kenny, Andy Sumner, and Jonathan Karver
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are widely cited as the primary yardstick against which advances in international development efforts are to be judged. At the same time, the Goals will be met or missed by 2015. It is not too early to start asking 'what next?' This paper builds on a discussion that has already begun to address potential approaches, goals and target indicators to help inform the process of developing a second generation of MDGs or 'MDGs 2.0.' The paper outlines potential goal areas based on the original Millennium Declaration, the timeframe for any MDGs 2.0 and attempts to calculate some reasonable targets associated with those goal areas.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Post Colonialism, and Political Theory

154. Competitiveness in Central America: The Road to Sustained Growth and Poverty Reduction

Author:
Liliana Rojas-Suarez, José Luis Guasch, and Veronica Gonzales
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Global Development (CGD)
Abstract:
Over the last decade, Central American countries—Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua—have made significant progress in social and economic areas. In particular, they have stabilized their economies after decades of civil war and the economic volatility that plagued the region through the 1990s. Most countries in Central America have taken important steps to improve their business climates, particularly by enhancing macroeconomic stability, improving the soundness of their financial systems, making improvements in infrastructure services and trade facilitation, reducing red tape, and simplifying their regulatory and tax frameworks. As a result, before the 2008 financial crisis, GDP per capita in Central America grew at an average rate of 3 percent per year from 2003 to 2008, which, albeit modest, was the most robust and stable period of growth the region had witnessed since the early 1990s. However, despite this achievement, Central American economies are still lagging behind the rest of Latin America and other middle-income countries by per-capita growth rates of 0.5 to 2 percentage points. Even more worrying are the levels of poverty and inequality, which show the lack of inclusiveness in their growth models. Moreover, recent developments in the region show a number of red flags that are weakening macroeconomic and democratic stability. Significant structural changes are urgently needed to secure sustained and inclusive growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Latin America and Central America

155. The New Global Health Agenda: Universal Health Coverage

Author:
Laurie Garrett, Yanzhong Huang, Oren Ahoobim, Daniel Altman, and Vicky Hausman
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
It might seem hard to believe, but just as the world is recovering from the most serious financial shock since World War II, governments around the world are engaging in serious discussions about how to expand health coverage.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, Health, Human Welfare, and Law
Political Geography:
South Africa

156. Entrepreneurship in Postconflict Zones

Author:
Gayle Tzemach Lemmon
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Economic development is a critical component of promoting stability and U.S. security interests, particularly in conflict and postconflict zones. Reviving institutions and rebuilding an economic base are among the first priorities after fighting ends and reconstruction begins. According to the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), negative economic shocks of just 5 percent can increase the risk of a civil war by as much as 50 percent in fragile environments. Additionally, donor assistance, which can account for 20 percent to as much as 97 percent of a country's GDP, is unsustainable in the long term. Building local business capacity and supporting homegrown entrepreneurs can help curb this risk. Research from Iraq has found that labor-generating reconstruction programs can reduce violence during insurgencies, with a 10 percent increase in labor-related spending associated with a 10 percent decrease in violence. And as Shari Berenbach, director of the Office of Microenterprise Development at USAID, argues, the development of “private enterprise is an important stabilizing force,” particularly for countries suffering from the political uncertainty and civil unrest that often characterizes the postconflict period.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment
Political Geography:
United States

157. Maximizing Development of Local Content across Industry Sectors in Emerging Markets

Author:
Michael Levett and Ashley E. Chandler
Publication Date:
05-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Abstract:
While the promise is still far greater than the reality, strategies and programs built on the positive impact on development from private-sector initiatives in frontier and emerging markets is gaining acceptance and driving change in corporate boardrooms and NGO projects. Multinational corporations (MNCs) engaged in these initiatives represent sectors as diverse as extraction and agriculture, tourism and technology, and pharmaceuticals and electronics. Corporations point to their balance sheets as the motivation for policies, projects, and practices that create businesses, jobs, national and family wealth, and new economic opportunities across the developing world. While these outcomes have long been the goal of international donors and development organizations, it now appears that the private sector may be better prepared to accomplish many of them using their own funds, skills, and practices—and with motivations that are less lofty.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Non-Governmental Organization, Foreign Aid, and Foreign Direct Investment

158. How Global Watchdogs Missed a World of Trouble

Author:
Paul Blustein
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI)
Abstract:
This paper provides the first detailed look inside the operations of the Financial Stability Forum (FSF), a little- known and secretive institution created shortly after the emerging-market crises of the late 1990s. Although other institutions have come under intense scrutiny and criticism since the eruption of the global financial crisis in 2007, the FSF has gotten much less attention than it deserves. Its primary aim was to coordinate efforts in preventing and mitigating future crises, and its members included top- ranking officials from the finance ministries, central banks and regulatory agencies of the world's richest countries. Moreover, the FSF's successor body, the Financial Stability Board (FSB) — whose name reflects the two bodies' many similarities — was established at a summit of world leaders in April 2009, amid solemn promises that the leaders were putting in place the mechanisms necessary to ensure the safety and soundness of the global financial system.
Topic:
Security, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Governance

159. The concept of "rising powers"

Author:
Pinar Tank
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:
The end of the cold war and the bipolar world order heralded an era of transition for global governance. Twenty years on there is still no consensus on the status of the distribution and exercise of power in today's multipolar world. What is clear, however, is the rise of new powers seeking a global political role comparable with their increased economic clout. Often referred to as the BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – to which second-tier powers such as Indonesia, Turkey and Mexico can be added, these states are called “rising powers” or “new powers” because of their rapid economic development, and expanding political and cultural influence.
Topic:
Cold War, Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Governance
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, India, and Brazil

160. Beyond branches: Innovations in emerging-market banking

Publication Date:
09-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Abstract:
Banks in emerging markets are increasingly weighty in global finance and still enjoy plenty of room to grow in their home markets. But they will do so in innovative ways that set them apart from the lenders of the developed world.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and Science and Technology