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771. Exploring economic support networks amidst racial inequality in Namibia

Author:
Annalena Oppel
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Community or interpersonal support as a critical source of livelihood sustenance in the Global South can exhibit unequal dynamics. An understanding of these practices is primarily tied to the conceptual space of poverty or small communities. Less is known about how social support systems might respond to structural inequalities. I address this by exploring how support practices might be shaped by inequalities in the Namibian context. I draw on primary network data to assess inequality as a social dynamic within the space of support and evaluate whether providing worse-off others corresponds to former discriminatory practices under the apartheid regime. My results suggest that inequality has normalized a sense of support as necessity for black but not white Namibians. More broadly, by recognizing differences in group practices, I evidence that exploring support practices across structural inequalities can enhance insights on the social replication of inter- and intragroup-based inequalities.
Topic:
Economics, Race, Inequality, and Social Networks
Political Geography:
Africa and Namibia

772. The economic gains of reducing the employment gender gap in Morocco

Author:
Olivier Bargain and Maria C. Lo Bue
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, including Morocco, currently record the lowest rates of female labour force participation (FLFP) in the world. These rates — between 20-30% in 2019 — appear substantially low in comparison to Western countries, but also compared to low- and middle-income countries that average between 40% (Asia) and 55% (Latin America and sub-Saharan Africa).
Topic:
Economics, Gender Issues, Women, Employment, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:
North Africa and Morocco

773. GARCH Analyses of Risk and Uncertainty in the Theories of the Interest Rate of Keynes and Kalecki

Author:
Hubert Gabrisch
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
This study attempts to identify uncertainty in the long-term rate of interest based on the controversial interest rate theories of Keynes and Kalecki. While Keynes stated that the future of the rate of interest is uncertain because it is numerically incalculable, Kalecki was convinced that it could be predicted. The theories are empirically tested using a reduced-form GARCH-in-mean model assigned to six globally leading financial markets. The obtained results support Keynes’s theory – the long-term rate of interest is a nonergodic financial phenomenon. Analyses of the relation between the interest rate and macroeconomic variables without interest uncertainty are thus seriously incomplete.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Economic Theory, Interest Rates, Macroeconomics, Keynes, Models, and Michał Kalecki
Political Geography:
Global Focus

774. Marching to Good Laws: The Impact of War, Politics, and International Credit on Reforms in Ukraine

Author:
Artem Kochnev
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The paper investigates determinants of investments in state capacity and institutional change in contemporary Ukraine. After formulating a simple sequential two-stage model of investments in state capacity, the paper estimates autoregressive distributed lag and vector autoregressive models to verify its predictions. The paper finds little evidence for the impact of conflict intensity and access to international credit on the pace of reform progress. It finds a statistically significant effect for the intensity of political competition and changes of real wages, albeit these results are sensitive to robustness checks.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, War, Labor Issues, Credit, International Business, State Capitalism, and Models
Political Geography:
Ukraine

775. The Proliferation Of Informal Housing In Major Cities In Cameroon: Evidence, Drivers And The Way Forward

Author:
Dr. Louis-Marie Kakdeu and Egoh Aziz
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The proliferation of informal settlements in Cameroon is problematic. A range of factors explain why this is becoming recurrent. Some of these factors include a deficit of housing supply, unaffordability issues, critical market factors, weak legal and institutional systems, and the socio-economic conditions of the country. This article focuses on the roots of Cameroon’s informal housing crisis. Reviewing the literature on the topic, we provide the context of the problem in Cameroon by pointing out some evidence and magnitude of the issue and probe into some historical facts on housing. We then explore some of the negative conduits to the housing problem and propose key recommendations to the government that can help improve the situation. We used the content analysis method in collecting data.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Regulation, Housing, and Real Estate
Political Geography:
Cameroon

776. Snakes, rats and drug addicts used to dwell here – analysis of the narrative utilised to capture the state

Author:
Luka Steric
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
Foreign direct investments are the cornerstone of the current government’s economic policy. In their statements, the officials call them drivers of development, saying that they have enabled the revival of the economy and turned Serbia into the “economic tiger of Southeast Europe.”1 The fact that the value of the investments Serbia has managed to attract is greater “than what was achieved by all the countries of the Western Balkans put together” 2 is often mentioned as the key measure of success. However, the story of brilliant success quickly loses its lustre when one considers the long-term effects and all-encompassing consequences of this policy. Due to the way they are contracted and implemented, foreign direct investments represent one of the key mechanisms for capturing the state. Hiding behind the stories of a better future and new jobs, the government is breaking down the system of legal regulations and statutory procedures, promoting private interest to the detriment of the public one, and using foreign investments as propaganda ammunition to legitimise unlimited power. The results of such policy are a number of negative consequences for the state and the citizens, such as the increase of public debt, dramatic violation of workers’ rights and alarming problems with environmental pollution. In order to mask the negative consequences and legitimise the policy of attracting foreign investors based on the above described pattern, a complex narrative has been developed presenting foreign investments as a successful, and the only possible, model for state development. This meta-narrative about progress, which media are building up every day, is based on four basic component narratives: on the economic revival, on the efficiency of personal rule, on transparent contracts and on the opponents of Serbia’s development who ‘unfoundedly’ criticise the government’s economic success. In the analysis of the narrative we will focus on the statements of officials made since 2012, which is when the regime led by the Serbian Progressive Party came to power. Many of the described mechanisms, such as non-transparent, harmful contracts and unjustifiably high subsidies, also existed during the previous government.3 However, the capture of the state, carried out - among other things - with the help of foreign direct investments, has reached completely new dimensions under the current regime, while the narratives that accompany it have been significantly ‘improved’.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and Drugs
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia

777. Overcoming The Challenge Of Fiscal Transition In Cameroon

Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
On 16 November 2020, Cameroon’s government published the 2030 National Development 2020- Strategy (SND30), which operationalises the second phase of the emergence vision for 2035. This 10-year plan aims to implement favourable conditions for sustainable economic growth and an accumulation of national wealth through structural changes essential for industrialisation. The strategic objectives to be achieved can be summarised as follows: achieve approximately a double-digit economic growth attain the 25% threshold as the share of manufacturing production in GDP reduce poverty to less than 10% in 2035 consolidate the democratic process and strengthen national unity while respecting the diversity that characterises the country To achieve these clearly defined objectives, public authorities must increase their efforts to encourage local production. In other words, local producers need to be supported and supervised by being rewarded with a package of tax relief measures. The challenge is to promote the “made in Cameroon” and progressively reduce the dependence on manufactured products’ imports.
Topic:
Economics, Economic Growth, Tax Systems, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon

778. The Concept Of Africapitalism And The Role Of The Private Sector In Africa’s Socio-Economic Development

Author:
Dinga Tambi and Dr. Fuein Vera Kum
Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
Development is one of the main priorities of the United Nations. Development is a multidimensional concept that seeks to achieve a higher quality of life for all people. Economic development, social development and, environmental protection are interdependent and mutually reinforcing components of sustainable development. Africa is one of the fastest-growing continents in the world today. The private sector plays a great role in terms of job creation and employment. Constrained by a crippling environment and burdensome government policies for decades, Africa still hosts a majority of the least developed countries of the world. The private sector is said to have a major role to play in Africa’s development, a situation which Elumelu (2019) describes as ‘Africapitalism.’ According to Elumelu (2019) Africapitalism represents the belief that the private sector in Africa has a critical role to play in the continent’s development. For Africapitalism to hold, some basic principles have be put in place. These include entrepreneurship, long-term investments, investment in strategic sectors, and regional connectivity amongst others. Africapitalism lays emphasis on private sector growth as the primary driver of Africa’s development. It calls for a new kind of capitalism for Africa: one that focuses on long-term investment in key sectors of the economy to spark the growth of African-owned businesses, stimulate the creation of jobs, and guarantee sustainable economic growth. Essentially, africapitalism embodies a private sector-led approach to solving some of Africa’s most intractable economic growth and development problems.
Topic:
Economics, Capitalism, Business, Economic Development, Private Sector, and Job Creation
Political Geography:
Africa

779. An Analysis of the Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations on the Conduct of Monetary Policy in the Economic

Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
For many years, the economies of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa, like most of the world’s economies, have been confronted with numerous fluctuations in the price of raw materials on international markets. For these predominantly extroverted economies, that is, those dependent on export earnings, these price variations have consequences for their macroeconomic performance and the conduct of economic policy. Like most economic crises in the world in the past, the pandemic caused by the new Coronavirus that has been raging since 2020 has also brought with it many changes. Between the confinement measures taken by public authorities to curb the spread of the virus and the resulting slowdown in global economic activity, there has been an inevitable significant drop in global oil demand. The direct consequence of such a scenario is the fall in oil prices on world markets, which is very bad news for the public finances of oil-exporting countries. The main objective of this report is to analyze the effects of oil price fluctuations on the conduct of monetary policy in the CEMAC. We start from the observation that oil shocks are the source of strong inflationary pressures in these economies. It is the responsibility of monetary policy to ensure price stability. Thus, after analyzing the effects of oil price fluctuations on the world economy as well as the macroeconomic and financial implications of these fluctuations on the economies in 2020, we use a Vector Auto Regressive model to analyze the contribution of oil price shocks on the historical dynamics of macroeconomic variables in the various CEMAC countries between 2001 and 2020. Then, we use a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model to analyze the impact of oil price changes on monetary policy in the CEMAC.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Oil, Natural Resources, Monetary Policy, Global Markets, Inflation, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Africa, Cameroon, and Central Africa

780. Should We Consider A Post-Covid-19 Reform Of The VAT In Cameroon?

Publication Date:
03-2021
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Nkafu Policy Institute
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic so far has had a profound impact on the global economy. The containment measures adopted by governments to curb the spread of the disease have curtailed business activities, making it impossible for companies to adequately meet their tax obligations. As a result, forecasts for customs revenues and internal tax resources have been revised downward, mainly due to the closure of borders. Collected both at the borders and within the country, Value Added Taxes revenues have naturally been very negatively affected by the crisis. In Cameroon, losses related to value added tax in 2020 were estimated at CFAF 298.017 billion, representing 50.73 percent of recorded tax losses, which is hardly surprising. Value-added taxes are identified as the main source of tax revenue in Cameroon. They were estimated at 44.73% of tax revenue in 2019 and about 7% more than in 2016. The importance of VAT in tax revenue mobilization requires an examination of the Cameroonian tax system, particularly the factors that could explain a reform of the tax. Moreover, given that Cameroon is at high risk of external debt distress (IMF, 2018), there is an urgent need to find new ways to ensure the continued sustainability of public finances. This Tax Policy Letter analyzes the rationale for VAT reform in Cameroon. First, we present the severity of the economic repercussions of the coronavirus health crisis at the level of VAT revenues in Cameroon. Noting that VAT is the main source of indirect tax revenue – 60.19% in 2019 compared to 54.54% in 2016, for example – we then examine the guiding principles that govern its collection and application in Cameroon. A careful examination of these principles has allowed us to analyze the benefits associated with a reform of this tax on final consumption.
Topic:
Economics, International Political Economy, Tax Systems, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Revenue Management
Political Geography:
Africa and Cameroon