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7131. Underdevelopment, Transition and Reconstruction in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:
Tony Addison
Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Reconstructing Africa's war damaged economies is an urgent task. This is especially so in a group of countries - Angola, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Guinea-Bissau, and Mozambique - which must also complete their economic and political transition from state socialism. Somalia, which shares their common history, must eventually be rebuilt. All of these countries must address their deep problems of underdevelopment and poverty. The challenges are therefore three-fold: to overcome underdevelopment, to make the transition from state socialism, and to reconstruct economies and societies.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:
Africa, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Somalia, Angola, Eritrea, and Guinea-Bissau

7132. Resource Abundance and Economic Development: Improving the Performance of Resource-Rich Countries

Author:
Richard M. Auty
Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Since the 1960s the resource-rich developing economies have under-performed compared with the resource-deficient economies. This paper explains why and outlines the reforms that are required in order to achieve environmentally and socially sustainable resource-rich development. It argues that structural change in the resource-rich countries causes the tradeable sector to shrink vis-à-vis the nontradeables sector (that includes protected manufacturing) in a manner that is not sustainable. This adverse trend in the production structure is associated with policies to close the economy and create discretionary rents behind protective barriers that result in the cumulative misallocation of resources. The build-up of produced capital and skills is slower than in the successful resource-deficient countries. Overall, the inherently slower and less egalitarian economic growth trajectory of the resource-rich countries is intensified and the end result is usually a growth collapse. The collapse causes all forms of capital, including institutional, social and natural capital, to run down. Economic reform is therefore protracted and it may take in excess of one generation to restore sustainable rapid growth. The adverse features of resource-rich development tend to be more pronounced in the smaller countries. They are also heightened where the resource rents accrue mainly to the central government, as in the mineral economies and in the slow-reforming transition economies. Successful reform requires not only appropriate macro and micro policies, but also the construction of institutions to limit the scope for governments to misallocate resources. Part of the explanation for the superior performance of the resource-deficient countries is that their spartan endowment of natural capital acts as a constraint on government failure by placing a premium on the need to nurture scarce resources, including skills, institutions and social capital, and to achieve an efficient allocation of capital.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, Government, and International Political Economy

7133. The Role of Knowledge and Capital in Economic Growth

Author:
Sergio Rebelo
Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Starting from the celebrated neoclassical (Solow) model of economic growth, this paper discusses new ideas in growth theory focussing on how to make sustained growth feasible. It first reviews models that broadened the notion of capital to include human capital and the state of technology. These extensions of the neoclassical theory are not very satisfying at a descriptive level because productivity growth is associated with either human or physical capital accumulation in a way that does not interact with the invention of new technologies.
Topic:
Economics and Science and Technology

7134. Assessing South Africa's Growth Strategy

Author:
Jesmond Blumenfeld
Publication Date:
07-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
As South Africa approaches its second inclusive elections in 1999, the government's economic record will come under increasing scrutiny. Against widespread expectations of a post-apartheid transformation in economic performance, the country's achievements in output, investment and employment have been profoundly disappointing. The adoption of a new, and more market- and investor-friendly, macroeconomic strategy in 1996 boosted confidence by promising major structural and policy reforms, but this has since been undermined by failure to meet most of the strategy's targets. In this Briefing Paper, Jesmond Blumenfeld analyses the origins, content and outcomes of the strategy as well as the economic and political dilemmas that it has created.
Topic:
Economics and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
South Africa and New Delhi

7135. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 1998

Publication Date:
12-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.3 percent, the coincident index increased 0.3 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.2 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy: The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion, which has become the second longest on record. The coincident indicators show aggregate activity rising at a more moderate pace than GDP's rise of 5.6 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. There is no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

7136. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 1998

Publication Date:
11-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.2 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy with bright prospects in 1999. The coincident indicators point to GDP rising between 2.5 and 3 percent (annualized) in the 4th quarter of 1998. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least early 1999. The economy shows no evidence of cyclical imbalance.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

7137. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 1998

Publication Date:
10-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index increased 0.1 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index decreased 0.1 percent in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy. The coincident indicators show the 4th quarter of 1998 starting with a relatively slow pace of growth (compared to the coincident index's rise of rise 3.0 percent and GDP's rise of 3.7 percent, annualized, during the first 3 quarters of 1998. The leading indicators show no serious impediments to moderate, or even strong, economic growth in 1999. There is almost no evidence of cyclical imbalances that would jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

7138. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 1998

Publication Date:
09-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
Both the leading and coincident indexes held steady, while the lagging index fell 0.1 percent in September. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a slowing, but still healthy economy. The coincident indicators suggest the expansion advanced in the 2 to 2.5 percent range in the 3rd quarter of 1998, compared with constant- dollar GDP showing a 3.3 percent increase (annualized). It is premature to predict a recession based on the leading indicators. The lagging indicators have moderated, giving less reason to worry that cyclical imbalances will soon jeopardize the economy's stability.lances could jeopardize the economy's stability.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States

7139. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: August 1998

Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased 0.6 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.4 percent in August. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a healthy economy. The coincident indicators point to GDP rising at a 2.5 to 3.0 percent pace (annualized) in the 3rd quarter of 1998. The leading indicators point to a continuation of the expansion through at least early 1999. The lagging indicators suggest a need to be concerned that cyclical imbalances could jeopardize the economy's stability in 1999.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States

7140. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: June 1998

Publication Date:
08-1998
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased 0.6 percent in June. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show a moderating economy: The coincident indicators point to economic activity rising at faster pace than the latest GDP figures, but slower than the 4th quarter of 1997 and the 1st quarter of 1998. (The coincident index rose 3.1 percent while GDP rose 1.4 percent, annualized, in the 2nd quarter of 1998). A two-month decline in the leading indicators signals slower growth ahead and only a slight risk of a contraction. The lagging indicators show slight evidence of cyclical imbalances that could jeopardize the economyÕs stability.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States