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7021. Japan—Economic Recovery

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Pessimism surrounding the Japanese economy has lessened as, against most expectations, recovery continues to take hold. Analysts who predicted further contraction in Japan's GDP during fiscal 1999 have altered to a more optimistic outlook. The reason for this turnaround is a general change in perception of the recession. Rather than the downturn being part of a decade-long stagnation persisting since the collapse of the bubble economy in 1991, the recession was in fact of more recent origin and, therefore, of a less intractable nature than commonly supposed.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
Japan and East Asia

7022. Argentina—Opposition

Publication Date:
11-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The outright victory of the Alliance candidate, Fernando de la Rua, on the first round of voting in the presidential elections on October 24, reflects the desire for a change of political style. De la Rua's approach to government will be less personalist and more consensual than that of the outgoing president, Carlos Menem. While economic policy is unlikely to change in any fundamental way, the new government will be under pressure to root out corruption. It will be the first time since the return to civilian rule in 1983 that a government lacks a majority in either chamber of Congress, which may strengthen democratic institutions.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:
Argentina

7023. EU—Membership Indecision

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
The attractions of the single european currency are likely to draw the Scandinavian countries into the euro-area by around 2003. However, the outlook for United Kingdom accession is complicated by differences in its economic profile compared with the rest of the euro-area, combined with its enduringly euro-sceptical public opinion. These factors are likely to postpone its accession until later in the decade.
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

7024. Russia—Debt Rollover

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
08-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
On July 28, the IMF's Board of Directors announced their approval of a 4.5 billion dollar loan to Russia. Rather than representing a breakthrough deal, the agreement is merely the latest chapter in the cycle of non–compliance and renegotiation that has characterised the Fund's relationship with Moscow. With presidential and parliamentary polls scheduled during the next twelve months, electoral pressures will almost certainly prevent the latest macroeconomic programme being implemented. Moreover, unless the root cause of Russia's economic problems—its dire GDP growth rate—is rectified, a further round of comprehensive renegotiations will be required.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Russia and Moscow

7025. United States -- Economic Slowdown?

Author:
Oxford Analytica
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
In recent weeks, economic data has produced conflicting signals about the strength of domestic demand within the US economy. A majority within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) believes that growth will decelerate and that only a small tightening of monetary policy will be necessary in the short term. However, the Federal Reserve has consistently underestimated domestic demand, and there are signs that the economy is still buoyant. Moreover, with improving economic prospects in Europe and Asia, the external forces encouraging lower US interest rates are likely to be reversed. The combination of these factors could put pressure on the Fed to tighten further.
Topic:
Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Asia

7026. The Viability of Advanced Welfare States in the International Economy: Vulnerabilities and Options

Author:
Fritz W. Scharpf
Publication Date:
09-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Max Planck Institute for the Study of Societies
Abstract:
The paper represents a preliminary and partial analysis of the information collected in a comparative 12-country study of the adjustment of national employment and social-welfare policies to the increasing internationalization of product and capital markets. After the postwar decades, when national governments were still able to control their economic boundaries, the first international challenge came in the form of the oil-price crisis of 1973/74, which confronted industrial economies with the double threat of cost-push inflation and demand-gap unemployment. It could be met if countries were able to achieve a form of “Keynesian concertation” in which expansionary monetary and fiscal policies would defend employment while union wage restraint could be relied on to fight inflation. For this solution, “corporatist” industrial-relations institutions were a necessary but not a sufficient condition.
Topic:
Economics and Industrial Policy

7027. Natural Resources and Economic Growth: A Nordic Perspective on the Dutch Disease

Author:
Thorvaldur Gylfason
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper begins by offering a quick glance of the Nordic economies and of some aspects of their economic growth performance and natural resource dependence since 1970. Thereafter, it reviews some of the main symptoms of the Dutch disease, and then considers whether these symptoms are observable in some of the Nordic countries in view of their abundant natural resources. The experience of Iceland and its fish seems an obvious point of departure. The paper then discusses the less obvious case of Norway and its oil (and fish!) and, at last, also reviews some possible linkages between forest resources and economic growth in Finland.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and Government
Political Geography:
Europe, Finland, Norway, and Dutch

7028. Development Discontinuities: Leaders and Intermediaries in Producers' Associations

Author:
Tito Bianchi
Publication Date:
10-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The development literature considers associations an important economic development tool that allows producers to pursue their economic welfare collectively and through participatory means. This paper comparatively analyses the experience of three associations of agricultural producers in the underdeveloped regions of Brazil and Italy that were successful in this economic development task. Their experience, however, challenges a commonly held view about the participatory nature of associations.
Topic:
Development and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe, Brazil, South America, and Latin America

7029. Resource-Led Growth — A Long-Term Perspective: The Relevance of the 1870-1914 Experience for Today's Developing Economies

Author:
Ronald Findlay and Mats Lundahl
Publication Date:
07-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Resource-Led Growth – A Long-Term Perspective surveys the 1870-1914 experience of growth in resource-rich economies: the so-called regions of recent settlement, some tropical countries and some mineral-based export economies. First, three contrasting stylized views of resource-led development are presented. Thereafter the picture of international trade in primary products and the migration of production factors between 1870 and 1914 is sketched. The third section presents some models that may be used to analyse trade and factor movements in the context of resource-rich (staples) economies and provides some details of the experience of fifteen countries: Canada, the United States, Australia and Argentina among the regions of recent settlement, Brazil, Costa Rica, Colombia, Ceylon, Malaya, Burma, Siam and the Gold Coast in the tropical group, and Bolivia, Chile and South Africa among the mineral exporters.
Topic:
Economics, Environment, and International Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Canada, South Africa, Burma, Chile, and Bolivia

7030. Group Behaviour and Development

Author:
Frances Stewart, Judith Heyer, and Rosemary Thorp
Publication Date:
06-1999
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
A very large amount of activity occurs within groups (that is within families, firms, co-operatives, communities or governments). Yet most economic analysis focuses on market transactions between these agents. The purpose of the study is to analyse within group behaviour. Evidence suggests some groups perform well from the perspective of efficiency, equity and well-being, while others perform poorly. The study aims to identify the main causes for these different outcomes, developing a preliminary analysis of modes of group behaviour, and influences on them.
Topic:
Economics, Education, and Emerging Markets