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601. Brazil and the United States: Renewed Momentum in a Natural Partnership

Author:
Liliana Ayalde
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Ambassador's Review
Abstract:
It is impossible to comprehend Brazil without understanding the dimensions of this continent-sized country, which occupies a land mass larger than that of the lower 48 of the United States. Brazil’s land border, which it shares with ten South American neighbors, is five times larger than the border between the United States and Mexico. Brazil is the fifth largest country in the world in terms of population. (For context, Indonesia is fourth.) It has abundant natural resources of every kind, including the world’s largest reserves of fresh water. It is home to two-thirds of the iconic Amazon, the globe’s largest tropical rainforest. It is the second largest economy in the Western Hemisphere and, depending on one’s calculus, the seventh or eighth largest economy in the world. The State of Sao Paulo alone has an economy larger than that of Argentina. Brazil has more cities with a population of over one million people than the United States. It is the world’s second largest exporter of agricultural goods after the United States. It derives 75 percent of its energy needs from hydro-electric sources—some of the cleanest energy platforms among large nations—and its current production of oil and gas make it among the top ten energy producers in the world. Brazil could become an even larger global producer with the development of its pre-salt oil reserves. With Embraer, Brazil has the world’s third largest aviation company after Boeing and Airbus, and in Gerdau, the top producer of long steel in the Americas. And this is just an illustrative sampling. One needs to keep in mind these basic facts about Brazil to help put surface events, including today’s headlines, in perspective.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
United States and Brazil

602. ASEAN: Creating the Rules-Based Architecture in Asia

Author:
Nina Hachigan
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Ambassador's Review
Abstract:
In my second week on the job as the second United States Ambassador to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), I headed to Naypyidaw, Burma to meet President Obama at the East Asia Summit. There I witnessed one of the many reasons the United States has increased its engagement with ASEAN: ASEAN convenes Asia. In 1967, leaders of five nations formed ASEAN, renouncing the violence that had characterized their relationships and dedicating themselves to furthering the prosperity of the region. Five more countries joined in the intervening decades and now ASEAN’s Member States, with a total population of some 625 million, are Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. ASEAN has delivered well on its primary mission: to keep the peace among a group of member states with huge diversity in levels of economic development, political systems, cultures, religions, and size. This foundation of geopolitical stability has allowed the economies in Southeast Asia to take off and lift tens of millions out of poverty. As a whole, ASEAN has enjoyed the third highest growth rate in the world over the past decade.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Human Welfare, Poverty, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Asia

603. The Belt and Road initiative: connecting China and Central Europe

Author:
Xiao Fang
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:
Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:
China and Central Europe have experienced similar transitions over time and have a constructive role to play in the international system, taking on responsibility for development. Cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European Countries is conducted via the “16+1” mechanism, the Silk Road Economic Belt and 21st century maritime Silk Road, known as the “Belt and Road initiative.” Central European countries are EU member states and emerging economies. They are located at a geographically strategic juncture and form part of the East Asia–Transatlantic value chain. The 16+1 mechanism is helping China and Central European countries establish high level annual meetings and is encouraging the private sector, business, people-to-people exchanges. The Belt and Road initiative is providing new financing facilities, and a dialogue with the European Commission on investment plans is being launched. Studies and working groups are emerging to help set strategies, build mechanisms, allocate resources and implement policies. This article argues that the Chinese approach, i.e. the 16+1 mechanism and Belt and Road initiative, is platforms paving the way for China–Central Europe cooperation.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Politics, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
China and Central Europe

604. Future of trade relations within the 16+1 group: risks and opportunities

Author:
Vilem Semerak
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:
Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:
The paper provides an overview of stylized facts on current trends in trade between the PRC and the 16 Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries. The potential effects of the “One Belt, One Road” initiative are discussed as are policy recommendations for the CEE countries. Trade with China is seen as complementary to trade with the core of the EU (and with the mutual trade of the CEE region,) once the international fragmentation of value chains is taken into account. Multilateral and plurilateral (e.g. EU-based) approaches to relations with China are likely to generate fewer risks compared to isolated solutions based on national interest pursued individually by CEE countries.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, and Multilateral Relatons
Political Geography:
China, Eastern Europe, and Central Europe

605. Coming out of the shadows: the Polish perspective on China–Central and Eastern Europe relations

Author:
Justyna Szczudlik
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:
Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:
In the last two decades, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have not played an important role in China’s foreign policy and vice-versa. EU membership did not change China–CEE relations remarkably. The situation started to change once the global financial and economic crisis hit. CEE began to notice that China is an economic and political partner to be reckoned with. Meanwhile, despite the crisis, the PRC started to look at CEE as a stable region – especially in economic terms. At the beginning China decided to strengthen bilateral ties with CEE countries. But in mid-2011 Beijing took the first step to launch cooperation with CEE as a region,
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China and Central Europe

606. Blowing from the East

Author:
Agnes Szunomar
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:
Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:
China is increasingly perceived in Central and Eastern Europe as a country which could bring economic success to the countries of the region through the development of trade relations and the growing inflow of Chinese investment. Within the region, Hungary is regarded as occupying a prominent position by Chinese people and the government for several reasons. Chinese relations have historically been good: over the past decade Hungarian governments have committed themselves to developing the relationship. This trend was further confirmed after the global economic crisis of 2008, when Hungary started looking for new opportunities in its recovery from recession. The “Eastern opening” policy was initiated after the crisis and partly because of it. Officially, this policy puts more emphasis on further developing Chinese–Hungarian relations than was previously the case, including increasing trade and investment. However, the outcomes of the policy – such as the construction of the Budapest–Belgrade railway line – can be evaluated in different ways.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Politics
Political Geography:
China and Central Europe

607. Migration from China to Slovakia

Author:
Peter Ondris
Publication Date:
12-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Issues: Slovak Foreign Policy Affairs
Institution:
Slovak Foreign Policy Association
Abstract:
While numerous specialist studies about Chinese communities have been published in other countries in the region, this is not the case in Slovakia. Therefore there is a general lack of information about the Chinese community in Slovakia. The objective of this study is, at least partially, to fill this gap. While in many cases, i.e. in Central and Eastern Europe, businesses run by Chinese migrants have contributed to the economic stabilization of the region, including in Slovakia. It should be noted that the number of Chinese people in Slovakia has in the last ten years decreased as a percentage of the foreigners living legally in Slovakia. One could assess this as being a consequence of Slovakia’s EU membership and its adoption of European legislation. The Slovak government has adopted policies to try to change the nature of Chinese migration to Slovakia and attract more educated people and businessmen.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, European Union, and Multilateral Relatons
Political Geography:
China, Eastern Europe, Hungary, Central Europe, and Slovakia

608. Where the Lions Are: Gazprom's "Energetic Pliers" and Aspirations of a Eurasian Archipelago: The Geopolitics of Russia's Networked Energy Infrastructure

Author:
John Haines
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Book
Abstract:
In a recent essay, George Friedman wrote with admirable clarity about an intelligence truism that is at one and the same time elemental and frequently overlooked: “The entire principle of strategic intelligence is to ruthlessly discard the subcritical noise that is being collected in order to identify the center of gravity of events. A tiny hint may sometimes draw attention to a major process, particularly in military affairs. Finding that tiny hint, however, requires huge amounts of time and effort, and little time is left to understand the meaning. Moreover, in many cases, the process is in plain sight. The trick is to see it, and the even harder trick is to believe it.” With that charge, the objective of this essay is to look at Russia’s network of natural gas pipelines and ethnic enclaves in its near abroad in the interest of exploring whether and how the two intersect. The initial hypothesis is that ethnic separatism is instrumental to the former in two fundamental ways. First, these enclaves are located geographically along major energy pipeline routes, often at key junctures in pipeline networks. Second, they sit atop substantial shale gas reserves, the determined exploitation of which would decisively undercut Russia's natural gas oligopoly. They constitute specific, identifiable “spheres of privileged interests” in Russian foreign policy. The idea for this essay began with a conversation with a Moldovan diplomat about Transnistria, a separatist region of his country that has amassed a staggering debt—in excess of $5 billion—for the purchase of Russian natural gas. Russia's use of this debt to exert political pressure on Moldova is a story broadly understood.[4]
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Debt, Economics, Energy Policy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Russia

609. Just Enough, Just in Time: Improving Sovereign Debt Restructuring for Creditors, Debtors and Citizens

Author:
Richard Gitlin and Brett House
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Recent international financial turmoil — most notably in Greece — has refocused attention on the risks posed by severe sovereign debt crises and weaknesses in our approaches to restructuring sovereign debt. Since early 2010, these risks have driven a range of debt-related policy proposals and actions in individual economies, across regions and at the international financial institutions. While some incremental first reform steps have been taken, these have not yet produced a more efficient, effective or resilient international framework for handling severe sovereign debt crises and effecting sovereign debt workouts. In contrast, some institutional and policy changes made in the heat of the euro-zone crisis have raised as many questions as they have resolved. Old policy ideas are also being resurrected and configured in new ways for current challenges. After years of substantial fiscal stimulus and exceptional monetary policies, high debt burdens across the advanced economies, fears of secular stagnation, signs of an imminent increase in US borrowing costs and deteriorating demographics together make a compelling case for concerted action to improve international arrangements for dealing with distressed sovereign debt.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

610. Corporate Debt in Emerging Economies: A Threat to Financial Stability?

Author:
Barry Eichengreen, Domenico Lombardi, Malcolm D. Knight, Yu Yongding, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Diane De Gramont, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Phillip R. Lane, Ugo Panizza, and Viral V. Acharya
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
During 1999-2007, the international balance sheets of emerging economies grew stronger through a combination of current account surpluses, a shift from debt funding to equity funding, and the stockpiling of liquid foreign reserves. This risk-mitigating strategy improved the international financial standing of many emerging economies and helped these economies withstand the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. However, a combination of domestic and external factors has led to a partial reversal of this strategy, with some emerging economies accumulating significant external debt since 2010. Previewed by the May 2013 “taper tantrum,” there has been considerable speculation that a tightening of dollar-funding conditions and a macroeconomic slowdown in emerging economies may result in financial instability in some emerging economies.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus