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522. Sanctioning Russia: Implications and Expectation
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West rapidly adopted unprecedented sanctions on Russia. These included a series of export controls and the sanctioning of the Russian Central Bank, major institutions in the financial sector as well as individual “oligarchs” who live and conduct business outside of the country. In addition to these government actions by the United States, the European Union and the UK, hundreds of Western private companies have withdrawn from the Russian market or suspended operations, further exacerbating Russian economic uncertainty. How likely are the sanctions to pressure Russia to halt its campaign in Ukraine, what is their purpose and logic, and what additional measures could be imposed?
- Topic:
- Economics, Hegemony, Sanctions, Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
523. How Central Asia Became Part of the Developing World
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- The Harriman Institute
- Abstract:
- During the Soviet period, official narratives presented Central Asia as a former colony that had been integrated on equal terms into the USSR while overcoming economic backwardness. This ambiguity was useful for Moscow’s Cold War politics and also shaped how Central Asian actors maneuvered within the Soviet system. In the late Soviet period, this ambiguity was largely abandoned. Some Central Asians began to insist on the region’s colonial status, while economists and sociologists in Moscow argued that Soviet development efforts had failed and that the region was culturally too different to fit into socialist economic schemes. In this talk, Kalinovsky will trace how different groups within the USSR can the late Soviet period came to reimagine Central Asia as a part of the Third World, discarding the ambiguity of earlier decades. These views also had profound implications for the region’s post-independence transformation: Western development professionals who came to Central Asia after 1991 found the region much more developed than other places they had worked. That also changed over the course of the 1990s, in part because of the continuing influence of Russian scholars, and in part as a result of the development community's evolving understanding of regional challenges (informed, to a large extent, by local scholars), a change that was solidified with the post 9-11 turn to the Global War on Terror. Artemy Kalinovsky is Professor of Russian, Soviet, and post-Soviet Studies at Temple University. He earned his BA from the George Washington University and his MA and PhD from the London School of Economics, after which he spent a decade teaching at the University of Amsterdam. His first book was A Long Goodbye: The Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan (Harvard University Press, 2011). His second book, Laboratory of Socialist Development: Cold War Politics and Decolonization in Soviet Tajikistan (Cornell University Press, 2018), won the Davis and Hewett prizes from the Association of Slavic, East European, and Eurasian Studies. He is currently working on a project that studies the legacies of socialist development in contemporary Central Asia to examine entanglements between socialist and capitalist development approaches in the late 20th century.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Capitalism, and Decolonization
- Political Geography:
- Central Asia and Asia
524. China’s Infrastructure Projects in the Middle East: Lessons from China’s Engagement Elsewhere
- Author:
- Dominika Urhová
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our latest issue of Iqtisadi, Ms. Dominika Urhova discusses the economic strategy and role of China in the Middle East, and analyzes the implications of China's growing influence in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Economics, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Strategic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, and Asia
525. EU-Azerbaijan Economic Relations: New Perspectives and Targets
- Author:
- CESD Research Team
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Economic and Social Development (CESD)
- Abstract:
- The study is an example of the series on issues analyzing the EU-Azerbaijan economic relations which can be considered a step forward to empower economic approach in the policy-making process aiming to provide an alternative view in addressing current challenges and developments in Azerbaijan. The European Union’s relations with Azerbaijan have been formulated based on the EU-Azerbaijan Partnership and Cooperation Agreement which entered into force since 1999. In February 2017, the EU and Azerbaijan began negotiations on a new framework agreement designed to enhance the political dialogue, trade and mutually beneficial cooperation covering a wide range of economic aspects. One of the most important strategies of EU in the energy policy is to ensure energy security through diversification of energy routes. Azerbaijan is a strategically important energy partner for the EU and plays a significant role in bringing Caspian energy resources to the EU market. In 2018, the EU and Azerbaijan endorsed joint Partnership Priorities, along the four Eastern Partnership priorities that accompany the political dialogue and economic cooperation….
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, European Union, and Partnerships
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Caucasus, and Azerbaijan
526. 2022 Retrospective and Trends for 2023
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Marta Bautista Forcada, Symphony Chau, and Hanny Megally
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
- Abstract:
- One year ago, we started our analysis of trends in 2022 on a pessimistic note, including the long-lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic; macro-economic volatility; the risk of a war in Ukraine and escalating tensions over Iran and Taiwan; and increasing divisions between North and South and between China and the West. At the end of 2022, looking ahead to next year, we see some surprising grounds for optimism, even though many of the risks that we pointed to have come to pass. These trends include how multilateralism played a surprisingly successful role in Ukraine, as we consider the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the UN resolutions that passed relating to the conflict, along with agreements during the G20 summit in Bali. Other positive notes pertain to potentially transformative global agreements on damage and loss and international tax cooperation, and the absorption of longer-term lessons on inter-state aggression. However, on the negative end, we close the year facing multiple crises chasing the same (declining) pot of money—whether conflict, humanitarian, socio-economic or climate. For our team’s analysis of trends for 2023, there is a focus on nine areas where politics and economics are closely interlinked, and we expect this to be a dominant theme of 2023.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
527. Global Peace Index 2022
- Author:
- Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP)
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
- Abstract:
- This is the 16th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive data-driven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 163 countries comprising 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of societal Safety and Security; the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict; and the degree of Militarisation. In addition to discussing the findings from the 2022 GPI, the report includes an analysis of the military conflict in Ukraine. It covers likely increases in military spending, new and emerging uses of technology in the war, its impact on food prices and global shipping routes. The report also contains a deeper analysis on violent demonstrations around the world. This year’s results found that the average level of global peacefulness deteriorated by 0.3 per cent. Although slight, this is the eleventh deterioration in peacefulness in the last fourteen years, with 90 countries improving, 71 deteriorating and two remaining stable in peacefulness, highlighting that countries tend to deteriorate much faster than they improve.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
528. German Economy Winter 2022: Inching through the energy crisis
- Author:
- Jens Boysen-Hogrefe, Dominik Groll, Nils Sonnenberg, Nils Jannsen, Stefan Kooths, Vincent Stamer, and Timo Hoffmann
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Wholesale prices for gas and electricity have fallen significantly in recent months - even though they are still at a high level. In addition, the burdens on private households and companies caused by high energy costs are to be cushioned by so-called price brakes. Overall, inflation in 2023 will be much lower at 5.4 percent than we had expected in our autumn forecast (8.7 percent). Although real disposable income and, as a result, private consumption are likely to decrease next year, the decline will be much smaller than had been expected a few months ago. As a result, we now expect a slight increase in GDP of 0.3 percent for 2023 (autumn: -0.7 percent). In 2024, GDP is expected to grow somewhat more strongly again at 1.3 percent (autumn: 1.7 percent). The labour market is robust despite the economic slowdown, partly because companies are still desperately seeking skilled workers. The public fiscal balance is likely to deteriorate significantly in 2023 due to the aid packages in response to the energy crisis and displays a deficit of around 4 percent relative to GDP. With the expiry of the aid packages, the deficit will decrease again in 2024.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Budget, Business, Labor Market, Energy Crisis, Emerging Economies, and Advanced Economies
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Germany
529. Economic Zones and Local Income Inequality: Evidence from Indonesia
- Author:
- Cecília Hornok and Sidan Raeskyesa
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- Economic zones can be powerful drivers of economic growth in developing countries. However, less is known about their distributional impact on the local society. This paper provides empirical evidence from Indonesian provinces on the relationship between economic zones and within-province income inequality. Estimates from panel regressions and synthetic control case studies suggest that this relationship is positive overall. The estimated rise in income inequality after a zone opens is relatively small on average and may be short-lived. However, the average estimate masks large regional differences, which suggests that the inequality implications of economic zone policies depend on local conditions. One explanation for the rise in inequality is that the unskilled population benefits disproportionately less from the policy. As a remedy, we propose education and training programs that target the poor and unskilled and in which companies also actively participate.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Economic Growth, and Income Distribution
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia, Asia, and Southeast Asia
530. International Managerial Skill and Big Colombian Exporting Firms’ Performance, 2006-2014
- Author:
- Federico Merchan
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- This paper uses a sample of the biggest private Colombian exporting firms to propose and estimate a two-step methodology for measuring international managerial skill and calculating its impact on firm performance. The first step quantifies the manager’s organizational capital contribution to improvements in Bloom et al.’s (2021) production efficiency (ability to assemble inputs into final goods) and/or quality capacity (skill to make high quality goods) mechanisms, through the median of export unit value regression residuals at firm-year level (multiplying by -1 the price competition products’ residuals). The second step is regression analysis of firm performance. Results indicate that: i) international managerial quality has a significant and robust positive effect on total export value via the intensive margin, ii) exported value elasticity relative to international managerial quality is around 3 times larger than exported value elasticity relative to exogenous global demand shocks, and iii) better managers in the international market do not necessarily upgrade export quality.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Exports, Management, and Labor Market
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America