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331. Labour Absorption in Indian Manufacturing: The Case of the Garment Industry

Author:
Chinju Johny and Jayan Jose Thomas
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:
A striking feature of the Indian economy has been the relatively small contribution made by the manufacturing sector to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and, more importantly, to employment. In 2013, manufacturing accounted for only 16.5 per cent of India’s GDP, compared to 29.7 per cent of China’s.3 According to the National Sample Survey (NSS) on Employment and Unemployment, India’s manufacturing sector provided employment to 61.3 million in 2011-12, which was only 13 per cent of the country’s total workforce of 472.5 million in that year (Thomas 2015a).
Topic:
Economics, Labor Issues, GDP, Employment, and Manufacturing
Political Geography:
India

332. The Undemocratic Dilemma

Author:
Yascha Mounk
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Democracy
Institution:
National Endowment for Democracy
Abstract:
Over the past decades, the ability of liberal democracies around the world to translate popular views into public policy has declined. This is a result of two major developments: Legislatures have become less reflective of popular opinion because of the growing role of money in politics. At the same time, they have also become less powerful because of the growing importance of bureaucratic agencies, central banks, judicial review, free trade, and international institutions. But there are no easy solutions, since some of these institutions are needed to meet high expectations on government performance. The “technocratic dilemma” thus poses a real threat to liberal democracy’s ability to meet the public’s twin demands of responsiveness and performance.
Topic:
Economics, Governance, Democracy, and Liberal Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus

333. The Case for a New International Monetary System

Author:
Judy Shelton
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
How often do we hear references to the notion that we live in a rules-based global trading system? Addressing the World Economic Forum at Davos in January 2017, British Prime Minister Theresa May praised liberalism, free trade, and globalization as “the forces that underpin the rules-based international system that is key to our global prosperity and security” (Martin 2017). Chinese President Xi Jinping likewise extolled the virtues of a rules-based economic order at Davos, winning widespread praise for defending free trade and globalization (Fidler, Chen, and Wei 2017). But could someone please explain: What exactly are those rules? Because if we are going to invoke the sentimentality of Bretton Woods by suggesting that the world has remained true to its precepts, we are ignoring geopolitical reality. Moreover, we are denying the warped economic consequences of global trade conducted in the absence of orderly currency arrangements. We have not had a rules-based international monetary system since President Nixon ended the Bretton Woods agreement in August 1971. Today there are compelling reasons—political, economic, and strategic—for President Trump to initiate the establishment of a new international monetary system.
Topic:
Economics, International Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

334. Extending the Economic Freedom of the World Index to the Cold War Era

Author:
Ryan Murphy and Robert A. Lawson
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Cato Journal
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
This article uses newly gathered and available data and autoregressive methods to create an economic freedom index for the 1950s and 1960s for up to 95 countries. The resulting index allows not only for a longer time series but also for a larger sample of countries than has been previously available.
Topic:
Economics, History, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
Global Focus

335. Monetary Policy in an Uncertain World: The Case for Rules

Author:
James A. Dorn
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Cato Institute
Abstract:
Since monetary policy operates in an uncertain world, discretionary policymaking relying on macroeconomic models of the economy is a weak reed upon which to base policy. The complexity of economic systems and constant changes in the underlying data mean errors may occur in a discretionary regime that can lead to monetary and financial instability.1 The 2008 financial crisis is a case in point: central bankers and their expert staffs failed to anticipate the crisis, and may have worsened it by keeping policy rates too low for too long (Taylor 2012). Moving to a rules‐​based regime would not eliminate radical uncertainty, but it could decrease institutional uncertainty—or what Robert Higgs (1997) has called “regime uncertainty”—and thus reduce the frequency of policy errors. Higgs focused on the uncertainty caused by fiscal and regulatory policies that attenuated private property rights by decreasing expected returns on capital. A discretionary monetary regime increases uncertainty about the future purchasing power of money and thereby undermines an important property right.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Economic structure, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:
Global Focus

336. Revisiting the determinants of non-farm income in the Peruvian Andes in a context of intraseasonal climate variability and spatially widespread family networks

Author:
Carmen Ponce
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Group for the Analysis of Development (GRADE)
Abstract:
Non-farm income sources are increasingly important in the developing world, representing up to 50 percent of average rural household income. Although there is a vast literature on the determinants of rural households’ strategies for income diversification, two factors associated with long-term transformations and common to many developing countries, have not yet been integrated into the analysis: (i) the role of intraseasonal climate variability (affected by climate change), and (ii) the role of family networks located in distant areas (increasingly important given population displacement due to the internal conflict and increasing connectivity via roads and communications). Whereas an increase in climate variability entails an increase in risk and vulnerability for farm activities, family networks located in distant regions(that do not share the local climate or market shocks) may become a key asset for managing risk and fostering income opportunities (as long as they convey information and opportunities that are not available through local networks). Given the market imperfections that are common in developing rural areas—especially those related to climate risk management—explicit consideration of both factors is key to understanding rural households’ diversification strategies. The study aims to contribute to this pending agenda, investigating the role of these two factors on a household’s income diversification into non-farm activities in the Peruvian Andes, a mountain region with large intraseasonal climate variability and limited but increasing spatial connectivity, where the rural population was severely affected by the internal conflict that took place in the country during the eighties and nineties.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Economics, Rural, Industry, Ecology, and Farming
Political Geography:
Latin America and Peru

337. Corruption in Yemen’s War Economy

Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Corruption, or the abuse of power for private gain, has been deeply entrenched in the Yemeni political economy for decades. Over the course of the ongoing conflict, however, as the war has fragmented and regionalized the country, state capture in Yemen has become far more complex. In the war economy, patronage networks are now emerging among previously marginal or unknown figures. The financial involvement of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has extended patronage across national borders. Alleged collusion between Houthi-affiliated importers and officials allied with the internationally recognized Yemeni government indicates patronage networks that potentially cross the frontlines of the war themselves. As greater numbers and a wider variety of actors profit from illicit activity in the war economy, vested economic interests in continued conflict become more entrenched. If state capture is among the main drivers of Yemen’s war economy, then post-conflict recovery must include a strong anti-corruption agenda. Policymakers must begin planning to address corruption as a part of a potential post-conflict strategy. Given the multi-faceted pervasiveness of corruption in Yemen, any anti-corruption agenda must aim to understand the complex configuration of patronage networks in Yemen, to be introduced gradually, and to get the buy-in of as wide a group of Yemenis as possible. Without these basic building blocks, more specific policy changes such as encouraging transparency or reducing conflicts of interest may founder. Corruption has become deeply entrenched in Yemen; any post-conflict anti-corruption agenda must be great in scope and long-term in vision.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, Government, War, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

338. Political Signals: Why Are Some Countries Abandoning the Dollar in Their Foreign Trade?

Author:
FARAS
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
Abstract:
Several Middle Eastern countries, such as Turkey and Iran, have been recently shifting into international currencies or local currencies, instead of the US dollar, in their foreign trade. This shift comes amid the US economic sanctions on Iran in tandem with its souring relations with Turkey. What is striking in this regard is that there is an international acceptance of other currencies, especially the Chinese yuan, with the pricing of some oil contracts in the same currency. This move seems to have a particular political significance, namely rejecting the impact of the US dollar on the trade of these countries rather than its economic feasibility, amid the sharp fluctuations in the local currencies of Iran, Turkey, and India in the past period.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Currency, and Trade Policy
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Iran, Eurasia, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

339. Global Debt Dynamics: What Has Gone Wrong

Author:
Andreas Antoniades and Stephany Griffith-Jones
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
This paper analyses the nature and characteristics of global debt dynamics in the post global financial crisis (GFC) period. First, we attempt to map the ways in which debt has been moving from sector to sector, and from one group of countries to another within the global economy. By capturing this inter-sectorial, inter-national, inter-regional movements of global debt we aspire to contribute to a more comprehensive understanding of global debt and its mode of operation. Second, we attempt to analyse what is wrong with global debt dynamics, i.e. we examine the broken link between what global debt was supposed to do and what it does. Here, we point to three interrelated dynamics: the accumulation of unproductive debt, growing inequalities of income and wealth, and the increase in privately-created, interest-bearing money.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Global Recession, Financial Crisis, and Global Political Economy
Political Geography:
United States, Global Focus, and Global Markets

340. The ebbing of the Pink Tide or permanent underdevelopment? Dependency theory meets uneven and combined development

Author:
Felipe Antunes de Oliveira
Publication Date:
05-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Global Political Economy, University of Sussex
Abstract:
Latin America is once again passing through a crisis. After initially showing promising results, the neodevelopmentalist strategy adopted in Brazil and Argentina has reached its limits. The attempt at 21st century socialism in Venezuela derailed, tearing the country apart. Finally, the neoliberal path dutifully followed by Mexico, Chile, Colombia and smaller countries perpetuated social inequalities, and is now menaced by President Trump's protectionist turn. The current Latin American crisis goes much beyond the reversion of the so-called "Pink Tide". It affects all ideological colours, raising again an old theoretical-political question that stood in the core of dependency theory: is development even possible in Latin America? The key to answer this question – a concept of development that captures non-converging transformation – was not available to Frank, Marini, Bambirra and Dos Santos, among other dependency theorists. Too easily conflating development with catching-up, they reached a dead end. Indeed, as they could see, Latin America was constantly changing, but not in the expected ways. In this paper, I suggest that the concept of uneven and combined development allows for a renewed engagement with dependency theory's core problem, by representing mixed forms of development as the norm, not the exception.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Economics, International Development, and Economic growth
Political Geography:
Brazil, Colombia, Latin America, Venezuela, Mexico, and Chile