Search

Begin New Search Topic Economics

1761. Inheriting Recessions

Author:
Tim Kane
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Hudson Institute
Abstract:
Three of the last six U.S. presidents have inherited a recessionary economy: Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, and Barack Obama. Let's define "inheriting a recession" as meaning that on the date a president is sworn into office, the economy is technically still in recession or enters one within a few months. Most economists would agree that presidents have little short-term control over the economy, but that their fiscal policies can be implemented quickly and affect macroeconomic performance after the first year. Reagan, inaugurated in January 1981, actually endured a double-dip recession-one that had been raging since early 1980 and a second that hit in July 1981-but the economy experienced a strong and sustained recovery that began in November 1982 during his second year in the White House. Bush was inaugurated in January 2001, and the economy entered recession just weeks later. Obama entered office in January 2009, like Reagan, after the United States had been in recession for a full year.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

1762. Kazakhstan and the United States: Twenty Years of Ambiguous Partnership

Author:
Sean R. Roberts
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
In looking at twenty years of independence in the former Soviet region of Central Asia, Kazakhstan stands out in most respects as a stable oasis in a desert of uncertainty. It is the wealthiest country in Central Asia. It has not suffered any serious conflict since gaining independence, and the development of its economy, financial sector, and private sector has been steadily moving forward as has its engagement with the global economy. It is little wonder, therefore, that the most stable and fruitful bilateral partnership for the United States in the region over the past twenty years has been with the Republic of Kazakhstan. US-Kazakhstan relations have never experienced a significant crisis, and there has been ongoing cooperation between the two countries in a variety of areas, including nuclear non-proliferation, economic development, and energy extraction.
Topic:
Democratization, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Central Asia, and Kazakhstan

1763. Kazakhstan's Energy Sector Since Independence: Two Decades of Growth and Challenges Ahead?

Author:
Katherine Hardin
Publication Date:
01-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Since its independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has tripled its oil production, taking its place among the top twenty oil producers globally. The country currently produces more than 1.7 million barrels per day (mbd), an amount roughly equal to Libya's 2010 production. Over the past decade, Kazakhstan's oil reserves estimates have nearly doubled, placing it among the top five countries that will account for more than half of the global liquids capacity growth to 2020. Kazakhstan's considerable resource base has been a critical factor in this success, but the government of Kazakhstan under President Nursultan Nazarbayev has also made strategic choices to attract investment into the energy sector and has successfully crafted a "multivectoral" energy policy with its neighbors, particularly in the case of energy transportation. This paper highlights key stages in Kazakhstan's emergence as a major energy producer, but points to challenges that lie ahead as the country continues to increase oil and gas production and exports.
Topic:
Economics, Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Oil
Political Geography:
Central Asia and Libya

1764. The United States and the Global Future

Author:
Banning Garrett, James B. Steinberg, David Ignatius, and Uri Dadush
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
How will the US economy evolve over the next twenty years and what might be the impact of various US economic scenarios on the global system? Will the United States have a Japan-like decade or two of anemic growth? If so, would this lead the United States to reduce its foreign involvement and commitments, become more protectionist, and focus on its internal problems? Or will the United States solve its fiscal and debt problems, reinvigorate growth and innovation, and return to sustainable economic growth? Would this underpin a renewed commitment to active US global leadership in mobilizing international cooperation to manage security, economic growth, and global challenges?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Hegemony
Political Geography:
United States and North America

1765. Rethinking US Relations with a Changing Egypt

Author:
Michele Dunne
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
With Egypt in the midst of a political transition, this is a crucial time to rethink the US's relationship with Egypt, argues Atlantic Council Director of the Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East Michele Dunne in this policy brief for the Project on Middle East Democracy.
Topic:
Democratization, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Middle East

1766. Rethinking the Russia Reset

Author:
Svante Cornell and Frances Burwell
Publication Date:
04-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
The first phase of the US "Reset" of its relations with Russia has concluded. Launching a second phase will not be easy: with the Russian presidential elections in March, there will be only a brief window for moving US-Russia relations forward before the US presidential contest moves into full gear. Although the result of the Russian election was widely seen as pre-ordained, the protests following the parliamentary and presidential contests have added uncertainty. A new Putin administration will be challenged by many reformers, but the external impact of that growing internal divide is unclear.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Economics, Government, Human Rights, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia

1767. A New Framework for US-China Economic Relations

Author:
Henry M. Paulson
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
For nearly four decades, there has been a broad consensus among US policy and opinion leaders that China's success will, ultimately, be good for the United States. But this long-standing consensus is now fraying. We need a new consensus, based on an updated framework that reflects the reality that China is no longer a "developing" economy but an increasingly established one.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Asia and North America

1768. Baltic Energy Security: Building a European Energy Future

Author:
Mihaela Carstei
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Historically, energy security has played a central role in shaping the national security strategy and interests of the Baltic states. The diverse challenges that exist in the region make it necessary to focus on identifying areas of cooperation between the countries as they pursue diversified oil and gas supplies.This is crucial to achieve a regional approach to the European Union's common energy security goals.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Europe

1769. Preparing for Cyber 9/12

Author:
Jason Healey
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Experts have warned about a massive surprise cyber attack since at least 1991, when Winn Schwartau testified to Congress about the dangers of an "electronic Pearl Harbor." More recently, the analogy has changed to a "cyber 9/11" but the fear is generally the same: the dependence of modern economies and societies on cyberspace means a digital attack could fundamentally disrupt our way of life and be remembered for decades as the day everything changed.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Economics, Science and Technology, and Terrorism

1770. India's Water Challenges

Author:
Suresh P. Prabhu
Publication Date:
10-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Atlantic Council
Abstract:
Threats of international water conflicts have garnered headlines in many parts of the world including South Asia. Yet, there are almost no examples of outright water war in history. Instead, national water tensions and issues in water management continue to bedevil South Asia and the largest country in the region. India's population currently stands at 1.2 billion people and is expected to reach 1.6 to 1.8 billion by 2050. For a country that already ranks among the lower rungs of the United Nations Development Programme Human Development Index, faced by the stresses of such population growth, India will have to design a plan to satisfy basic human needs for survival, and identify—and maximize—the use of key inputs that drive India's economic growth. One common source that cuts across all criteria for basic survival and economic development is water. It is predicted that by 2050, the per capita availability of water at the national level will drop by 40 to 50 percent due to rapid population growth and commercial use. The main sectors that are heavily dependent on water, such as India's agriculture and power generation, will also affect the quality of water available, both for other productive sectors and for public use. The demand for, availability, and varying use of water all have an impact on India's water resource management and its relations with neighboring countries.
Topic:
Agriculture, Economics, Industrial Policy, and Water
Political Geography:
South Asia, India, and Southeast Asia