Search

Begin New Search Topic Economics

131. Fiscal Policy Options for Japan

Author:
Olivier Blanchard and Takashi Tashiro
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
For many years, the Japanese government has promised an eventual return to primary budget surpluses, but it has not delivered on these promises. Its latest goal is to return to primary balance by 2025. Blanchard and Tashiro, however, argue that, in the current economic environment in Japan, primary deficits may be needed for a long time, because they may be the best tool to sustain demand and output, alleviate the burden on monetary policy, and increase future output. What primary deficits are used for, however, is equally important, and the Japanese government should put them to better use. The authors recommend that, given Japan’s aging population, the government should spend on measures aimed at increasing fertility—and by implication population and output growth—which are likely to more than pay for themselves.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Budget, Fiscal Policy, and Deficit
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

132. How to Restructure Sovereign Debt: Lessons from Four Decades

Author:
Lee Buchheit, Guillaume Chabert, Chanda DeLong, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper attempts to provide a playbook for the sovereign debt restructuring process, drawing on the experience with sovereign debt restructuring since the 1980s. It begins with a discussion of the participating actors and their interests. It then describes the considerations that must be weighed in designing, negotiating, and concluding a debt restructuring, in light of two problems: asymmetric information between the debtor and the creditors, and creditor coordination problems, which can lead to free riding (the “holdout” problem). The paper focuses on how these problems, which can lead to inefficiently negotiated outcomes, can be managed and minimized in practice.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Sovereignty, and Finance
Political Geography:
Global

133. The 2018 US-China Trade Conflict after 40 Years of Special Protection

Author:
Chad P. Bown
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
In 2018, the United States suddenly increased tariffs on nearly 50 percent of its imports from China. China immediately retaliated with tariffs on more than 70 percent of imports from the United States. This paper assesses what happened in 2018 and attempts to explain why. It first constructs a new measure of special tariff protection to put the sheer scope and coverage of the 2018 actions into historical context. It then uses the lens provided by the 2018 special tariffs to explain the key sources of economic and policy friction between the two countries. This includes whether China’s state-owned enterprises and industrial subsidies, as well as China’s development strategy and system of forcibly acquiring foreign technology, were imposing increasingly large costs on trading partners. Finally, it also examines whether the US strategy to provoke a crisis—which may result in a severely weakened World Trade Organization—was deliberate and out of frustration with the institution itself.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, Bilateral Relations, Trade Wars, Donald Trump, and Imports
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

134. Low Inflation Bends the Phillips Curve

Author:
Joseph E. Gagnon and Christopher G. Collins
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
The Phillips curve, which traces out a negative relationship between inflation and unemployment, has undergone tremendous changes over more than 100 years. Some researchers argue that the slope of the curve in the United States fell substantially around 20 years ago so that unemployment now has little or no effect on inflation. This paper shows that another hypothesis is equally consistent with the data: The Phillips curve may be nonlinear when inflation is low, with the economy having operated in the flat region of the curve for most of the past 20 years. The next few years may be decisive in the debate between these hypotheses, as unemployment has returned to a range in which a nonlinear curve ought to display significant steepness. A flat Phillips curve implies little change in inflation going forward, but a nonlinear curve implies moderate increases in inflation over the next few years.
Topic:
Economics, Inflation, and Unemployment
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

135. Brexit: Everyone Loses, but Britain Loses the Most

Author:
Maria C. Latorre, Zoryana Olekseyuk, Hidemichi Yonezawa, and Sherman Robinson
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
This paper examines 12 economic simulation models that estimate the impact of Brexit (Britain’s exit from the European Union). Most of the studies find adverse effects for the United Kingdom (UK) and the EU-27. The UK’s GDP losses from a hard Brexit (reversion to World Trade Organization rules due to a lack of UK-EU agreement) range from –1.2 to –4.5 percent in most of the models analyzed. A soft Brexit (e.g., Norway arrangement, which seems in line with the nonbinding text of the political declaration of November 14, 2018, on the future EU-UK relationship) has about half the negative impact of a hard Brexit. Only two of the models derive gains for the UK after Brexit because they are based on unrealistic assumptions. The authors analyze more deeply a computable general equilibrium model that includes productivity and firm selection effects within manufacturing sectors and operations of foreign multinationals in services. Based on this latest model, they explain the likely economic impact of Brexit on a wide range of macroeconomic variables, namely GDP, wages, private consumption, capital remuneration, aggregate exports, aggregate imports, and the consumer price index.
Topic:
Economics, World Trade Organization, Brexit, and Multinational Corporations
Political Geography:
Britain, Europe, and European Union

136. The Return of Economic Nationalism in Germany

Author:
Jeromin Zettelmeyer
Publication Date:
03-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:
ermany’s new National Industrial Strategy 2030, unveiled by Economy Minister Peter Altmaier in February 2019, advocates an aggressive industrial policy. Although it stays clear of the virulent economic nationalism of the 1930s and the protectionism of President Donald Trump, its tone and much of its content are unmistakably nationalist. Zettelmeyer concludes that three of Altmaier’s five proposals—attempting to further raise the German share of manufacturing, restricting non-EU imports of intermediate goods, and promoting national champions in Germany and the European Union—are bad policies. The two remaining ideas—preventing some foreign takeovers and ramping up state support for certain technologies—are somewhat easier to justify, based on either market failures or the risk of technological dependence on foreign companies susceptible to political interference. But even in these areas, the specific policies proposed may well do more harm than good.
Topic:
Economics, Nationalism, European Union, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany

137. The Centre-Right Returns to Power in Greece

Author:
Małgorzata Pawłowska and Melchior Szczepanik
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
ND won the election with 39.9% of the votes. The governing left-wing Syriza took 31.5% while 8.1% voted for the Movement for Change (KINAL), a coalition built around PASOK, the main left-wing party before the last economic crisis.
Topic:
Economics, Government, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:
Europe and Greece

138. The Paths of Political Change in Argentina

Author:
Bartlomiej Znojek
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
On 10 December, Alberto Fernández from the centre-left Everyone’s Front took over as the president of Argentina. His main challenge will be to end the economic crisis. His government will give up on the pro-market policies of its predecessors and try to renegotiate the foreign debt terms and attract investors. Argentina’s position on regional cooperation may lead to tension, in particular, within Mercosur. While the new government will seek stronger cooperation with the EU, its scepticism of the EU-Mercosur agreement may complicate the document’s ratification in Argentina.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Regional Cooperation, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

139. Coworking Spaces in La Paz, Bolivia: Urban Effects and Potential Creation of New Opportunities for Local Economic Development

Author:
Lucas DuPriest
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
This paper investigates the location patterns of coworking spaces, the effects of coworking spaces on the local and urban context, and coworking spaces potential opportunities for the creation of local economic development, issues that have been neglected in a Bolivian context by the existing literature. The focus of this paper is on La Paz, Bolivia’s political capital and the city in Bolivia which host the largest number of coworking spaces. The paper addresses three main questions: (1) Where are the main locations of coworking spaces in La Paz? (2) to what extent do coworking spaces generate transformative effects on the local respectively the urban scale? (e.g. physical transformations, changes in practices, community building) (3) how do coworking spaces create potential opportunities for local economic development? Desk research demonstrated that location patterns of coworking spaces are concentrated to two main commercial areas of the city, as well as to the main infrastructural and transportation axes. Field research highlighted local and urban effects, such as local community initiatives and micro-urban transformations in both spaces and practices. Lastly, field research assessed coworking spaces role in the socio-economic ecosystem. Three main typologies have been identified: the first type of coworking spaces act as “social entrepreneurship and start-up incubators” with a supportive role and closer ties to social and urban issues, the second type of coworking spaces act as “coffee and cowork incubators” providing cafés with shared workspaces, the third type of coworking spaces act as “real estate business incubators” and are mainly a commercial product responding the demand for flexible office spaces. This paper, therefore, helps to fill the gap in the literature about the location patterns of these new working spaces and their effects at different scales both in terms of spaces and practices, as well as local economic development.
Topic:
Economics, Work Culture, Urban, Local, Innovation, Economic Development, and Social Capital
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia

140. The Biological Standard of Living in Urban Bolivia, 1880s – 1920s: Stagnation and Persistent Inequality

Author:
Boris Branisa, José Peres-Cajías, and Nigel Caspa
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
Abstract:
Based on almost 5.000 direct observations on National Identification Cards, this paper offers the first estimation of the evolution of average heights in urban Bolivia for the decades 1880s-1920s. The analysis focuses on men aged 19-50 years registered in the city of La Paz. Despite city’s growing economic importance and modernization, average heights remained stagnant around 163 cm. This level is not so different to that found in the still disperse available evidence for rural Bolivia. Furthermore, there is evidence of inequalities throughout the period under study: those men who were indigenous, illiterate or worked in manual occupations were persistently shorter than non-indigenous, literates and non-manual workers, respectively. In coincidence with recent studies on Latin America, these findings suggest that the boost in exports and the regained dynamism of the economy that took place at the onset of the 20th century were not accompanied by improvements in biological standards of living.
Topic:
Economics, History, Urban, Welfare, Indigenous, and Modernization
Political Geography:
Latin America and Bolivia