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891. Role of Intelligence in International Crisis Management

Author:
Kwa Chong Guan
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
This Working Paper reviews conventional thinking about the contribution of strategic intelligence to early warning of diplomatic crisis and its escalation and resolution. The paper argues that in an increasingly complex and interdependent world driven by forces of globalization strategic intelligence may not be able to provide policy makers the foresight of crisis and its possible outcomes.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Globalization, and Intelligence

892. Busan and Beyond: Implementing the ''New Deal'' for Fragile States

Author:
Vanessa Wyeth and Rachel Locke
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Amid much fanfare, the “New Deal for Engagement in Fragile States” was endorsed by forty-one countries and multilateral organizations at the Fourth High-Level Forum on Aid Effectiveness in Busan, South Korea, on November 30, 2011. The culmination of two years of work by members of the International Dialogue on Peacebuilding and Statebuilding, the New Deal was hailed as a major breakthrough in efforts to seek a new approach to development assistance to fragile states. By agreeing to the New Deal, donors belonging to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) effectively joined with a coalition of seventeen conflict-affected and fragile states calling themselves the “g7+” to shine a spotlight on the need to apply a different development paradigm to these most challenging of contexts. However, the proof of any international agreement is in its implementation. This issue brief provides an overview of the history preceding Busan, the meaning of the agreement reached in South Korea, and prospects for implementation of the New Deal moving forward, with a particular focus on the role of the United Nations.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, Globalization, United Nations, Foreign Aid, Fragile/Failed State, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
South Korea

893. Hegemony in International Society

Author:
Barry Buzan
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Carnegie Council
Abstract:
This book is the third in a series, following Legitimacy in International Society (2005) and International Legitimacy and World Society (2007), in which Ian Clark has applied the concept of legitimacy to the English School's way of thinking about both international society (the society of states) and world society (global civil society mainly in the form of nonstate actors). For Clark, legitimacy is what defines both rightful conduct and rightful membership in society. Following the English School tradition, his main focus in terms of rightful conduct is on the primary institutions of international society: such deep practices as sovereignty, nationalism, diplomacy, the balance of power, great power management, and the like that constitute both the actors and the rules of the game of international society. This approach contrasts with the focus on secondary institutions—intergovernmental organizations, regimes, and other consciously constructed, instrumental entities—that is characteristic of liberal approaches to International Relations.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States

894. Can North Korea nuclear crisis be resolved?

Author:
Siegfried S. Hecker
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for International Security and Cooperation
Abstract:
I thank Kyungnam University and the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for inviting me to present my views on the situation in North Korea. My area of expertise is in the nuclear arena and that is primarily what I will address in my paper. However, it is not possible to solve the nuclear crisis without addressing the underlying fundamental political issues, so I will offer my views, as a non-expert in this area, at the outset.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:
Israel and North Korea

895. Malaysia's China Policy in the Post-Mahathir Era: A Neoclassical Realist Explanation

Author:
KUIK Cheng-Chwee
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Malaysia's China policy in the post-Cold War era – as an instance of a smaller state's strategy toward a proximate and rising great power – has been characterized by three patterns. First, there was a shift from hostility and guarded rapprochement during the Cold War to cordiality and maturing partnership in the post-Cold War era. Second, despite the overall positive development, Malaysia's China policy has remained, in essence, a hedging approach that is driven by both a pragmatic desire to maximize benefits from a closer relationship with the neighboring giant and a contingent calculation to guard against any long-term strategic risks in the uncertain regional environment. Third, such a two-pronged approach, which took shape since the 1990s under Mahathir Mohamad, has endured beyond the Mahathir era. Indeed, under his successors Abdullah Ahmad Badawi and Najib Tun Razak, Malaysia has continued to pursue a policy of dualism vis-à-vis China. What explains the enduring continuity of the hedging approach in Malaysia's China policy? This paper adopts a neoclassical realist perspective, arguing that the continuity is attributed to both structural and domestic factors. Domestically, the changing bases of political legitimation in the multi-ethnic country, which highlight the increasing salience of economic performance and political inclusiveness as key sources of moral authority to the UMNO-led coalition government, have necessitated the succeeding leaders to continue pursuing a pragmatic policy aimed at ensuring a stable and productive relationship with China, not least to gain from the steadily growing bilateral trade and the giant's growing outward investment. Structurally, Malaysia's position as a smaller state has compelled it to be constantly vigilant about the uncertainty of state intentions and inter-great power relations, which in turn demands it adopts contingent measures to hedge against longer-term risks. It is such structural and domestic determinants that have fundamentally shaped the country's policy towards China in general and the South China Sea issue in particular, which characteristically bears the mark of a delicate dualism, i.e. an explicit preference for engaging China through bilateral and multilateral diplomacy, but one that is backed by a low-key practice of maintaining and strengthening its traditional military links with its Western security partners.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Cold War, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Malaysia, and Israel

896. Avoiding Meeting Fatigue: How to make the numerous international meetings on Afghanistan more effective

Author:
William Byrd
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
The numerous high-profile international meetings on Afghanistan since 2001 have helped keep attention focused on Afghanistan, elicit financial support, give a “seat at the table” to all partners, generate good strategic documents, and provide a forum for the Afghan government. However, the meetings often have raised excessive expectations; lacked meaningful follow-up; undermined their own objectives; prioritized diplomacy over substance; focused more on donors' issues than Afghan problems; oriented the Afghan government toward donors; diverted resources toward meetings; resulted in meeting fatigue; and sometimes seemingly substituted for action. These meetings can be made more effective by: (1) keeping to realistic expectations; (2) not expecting meetings to substitute for difficult decisions and actions; (3) having substantive, disciplined agendas and avoiding co-optation by diplomatic priorities; (4) matching objectives with the issue(s) the meeting is supposed to address; (5) ensuring quality background work; (6) focusing follow-up on key areas and a few simple, monitorable benchmarks; and (7) keep­ing the number and frequency of meetings manageable.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

897. Turkey's Standing in Gas Pipeline Games

Author:
Olgu Okumus
Publication Date:
03-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Global Political Trends Center
Abstract:
Since September 2011, the Eurasian gas market has been facing shocking bi-monthly announcements: on September 23, British Petroleum (BP) announced the South East Europe Pipeline (SEEP); on December 26, Turkish and Azeri authorities announced their joint agreement for the Trans-­Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP); and on February 26, the Shah Deniz II Consortium announced it was undertaking exclusive negotiations with the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP). The shock wave intensified when the Turkish Energy Minister hinted that a new agreement allowing Russia to build its own South Stream pipeline under the Black Sea using Turkish territorial waters was in the works. Now the ultimate question of the Eurasian energy market is: “Which of these projects will be built?” This Policy Brief seeks to answer this question by analyzing Turkey's standing in Eurasian energy diplomacy in the perspective of energy transit projects competing for building the Southern Energy Corridor of gas transit from the Caspian zone to Europe. First, I present a short review of Turkish strategy in Eurasian energy diplomacy. Secondly, I detail the driving forces behind Turkish energy policy. I then conclude with some remarks about different scenarios of Turkish energy policy in the framework of the Southern Energy Corridor.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Europe and Turkey

898. The Arctic policies of Canada and the United States: domestic motives and international context

Author:
Kristofer Bergh
Publication Date:
07-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The Arctic ice is melting. If current trends continue, there will be dramatic changes in the region, with far-reaching implications. At the same time, the receding ice opens the region to economic development, including through the exploitation of previously inaccessible hydrocarbons and minerals. In September 2011, both the Northern Sea Route (along Russia's north coast, formerly known as the Northeast Passage) and the Northwest Passage (along the northern coasts of Alaska and Canada) were open for some time, potentially creating shorter shipping routes between Asia, Europe and North America. Increased human activity in the sparsely populated and in hospitable Arctic requires new initiatives to achieve safety and security for the region's environment and its inhabitants and visitors.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, Political Economy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Canada, Asia, and North America

899. Australia - China ties: in search of political trust

Author:
Linda Jakobson
Publication Date:
06-2012
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
How Canberra should manage its relations with Beijing, given the importance of China economically, politically and militarily, is a question which divides Australians. There is general agreement that the rise of China will have a profound effect on the well - being and security of Australia. The consensus ends there.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Australia

900. By Invitation, Mostly: the International Politics of the US Security Presence, China, and the South China Sea

Author:
Christopher Freise
Publication Date:
08-2012
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Much attention has been devoted to the Obama Administration's “Pacific Pivot” and the vocal reassertion of an upgraded security, economic, and diplomatic presence in East Asia by the United States. Commentators have ascribed various rationales to these efforts, including speculation that this is part of a “containment” strategy towards China, a reaction to the US presidential election cycle, or, more benignly, an effort to forestall concerns of American withdrawal from the region. These explanations have some elements of truth, but also fall short of fully describing or understanding the strategic rationale behind these moves.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Israel, and Asia