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1381. Iran and Iraq: Sanctions and Dual Containment - A View from the European Union

Author:
Roberto Aliboni
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
In recent years, many (non-American as well as American) analysts have put in question the wisdom and rationale of the US doctrine of the “dual containment” towards Iraq and Iran. Rather than being a strategic doctrine, the “dual containment” is a state of affairs reflecting the fact that the US was left without viable political options in the region by a set of mistakes whose cost it will be able to recover only in a more or less distant time: in particular, the full and blind support to the Shah's regime against any nationalist, liberal and religious groups in the country and the support to Iraq in the war against Iran, which convinced the Iraqi ruling regime of being entitled to exercise in the region a kind of proconsular power and prepared the country politically and militarily to its unfortunate attempt at swallowing Kuwait.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, America, Iran, Kuwait, and Arab Countries

1382. Challenges for a New Administration

Author:
Aleksandar D. Jovovic
Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:
The Institute for the Study of Diplomacy hosted the fall 2000 meetings of the Schlesinger Working Group on the topic of possible foreign policy strategic surprises facing the incoming Administration. To provide a starting point for the discussion, working group members identified more than a dozen scenarios that could: Take a new administration by surprise (an event not covered in the transition briefing books). Present a considerable challenge to the President. Pose a significant discontinuity or shift in the current trend line.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:
United States

1383. The Paradox of Disconnected Coalitions

Author:
J. Steven Brams, A. Michael Jones, and Marc D. Kilgour
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Studies Association
Abstract:
The paradox of disconnected coalitions is that "disconnected" coalitions can arise from the "connected" (i.e., single-peaked) preferences of as few as five or six players. Two models of coalition formation are analyzed in which the paradox can occur, in both of which players coalesce when they all find each other mutually acceptable: Fallback (FB): Players seek coalition partners by descending lower and lower in their preferences until a majority coalition emerges. Build-Up (BU): Same as FB, except that when nonmajority subcoalitions form, they fuse into composite players, and the descent restarts.
Topic:
International Relations and Diplomacy

1384. Prime Minister Barak's First Year: Diplomacy and Politics

Author:
Zalman Shoval
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs
Abstract:
Prime Minister Ehud Barak's tenure started out with almost everything going his way. He had what was often, though misleadingly, described as a "landslide victory" in the 1999 elections (though, in truth, Jewish voters gave him only a slim 3.2 percent majority over Netanyahu - compared to the almost 12 percent margin by which Netanyahu had defeated Peres in the previous elections). Nonetheless, it is true that Barak achieved better electoral results than most other prime ministers in Israeli history. As a result, no Israeli prime minister in recent memory had begun his term with a greater degree of goodwill from different segments of the population - including many who had voted for the other candidate.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Diplomacy, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

1385. International — Organic Pollutants

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Delegates from 122 countries recently concluded an international agreement restricting the use of persistent organic pollutants. The agreement marks an important step towards eliminating the use of highly toxic and long-lived chemicals that do not break down easily in the environment. However, the significance of the accord extends well beyond its subject area: negotiators managed to find compromises on several issues that have bedevilled other international environmental agreements.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Environment, and International Cooperation

1386. CIAO: Middle East — Arafat's Ambitions

Author:
Caspar Fithin
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxford Analytica
Abstract:
Israel this week launched missile attacks against Palestinian security targets in Gaza in retaliation for the bombing of a school bus carrying settlers. Tel Aviv and Washington have blamed Palestinian National Authority President Yasser Arafat for the current crisis, saying he could reduce the violence. In fact, the uprising is a spontaneous revolt against the terms of the Oslo peace process. Far from being undermined by the crisis, Arafat is using it to maximise his political and diplomatic position in the event that negotiations resume. The crisis marks a decisive shift in the Palestinians' conditions for peace with Israel.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Security, Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

1387. From Shebaa To Al-Quds: The Evolution Of Hizballah

Author:
Yossi Baidatz and Rachel Stroumsa
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
While international attention has been focused on the shift from diplomacy to violence in the Israeli–Palestinian arena, the "comeback" of Lebanon's Hizballah organization as an instigator of conflict has been, to some observers, a surprise. Following Israel's withdrawal from the "security zone" in May 2000, it was widely held that Hizballah would rest on its laurels and focus on its political/social agenda inside Lebanon. Instead, as recent events show, Hizballah has chosen to persist in its military strategy against Israel. Indeed, in contrast to the low-intensity conflict on the Palestinian front, Hizballah's actions have the potential to trigger a full-scale, inter-state war.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Arabia, and Lebanon

1388. Assessing Barak's Election Gambit

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's surprise resignation Saturday night has plunged the country's already battered political system into further turmoil, and so far, his gambit seems to have failed. Barak's move was clearly designed, at least in part, to utilize a provision in Israeli law that would sideline his once and would-be opponent Benjamin Netanyahu from running in a special election for prime minister on February 6. Moreover, Barak hoped that by avoiding a general election, he could avert the reconfiguration of the Knesset since polls show that if elections were held today, it would become a more rightward-leaning body.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

1389. The Separation Option: An Alternative To The Peace Process?

Author:
Dan Schueftan
Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Recently, public opinion in both Israel and the Palestinian territories has shifted in ways that argue for separation or disengagement. Israelis no longer accept the notion that negotiations will eventually lead to peace, but they are far more willing to make concessions to the Palestinians. Palestinians no longer expect a final agreement with Israel, and have instead shifted toward the Lebanon model of using violence to force an Israeli retreat — a trend with tragic implications for the future of Palestinian society.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Arabia

1390. Israeli Elections And The Peace Process

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak's decision yesterday to preempt his opponents and announce his willingness to hold early elections must be seen in the context of his interest in reviving the peace process. The vote for early balloting was driven by both animus toward the failed Camp David summit and by the Barak government's handling of the subsequent Al-Aqsa Intifada.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Security, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Arabia