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1231. PolicyWatch #1258: U.S. Support for the Iranian Opposition

Author:
Mehdi Khalaji
Publication Date:
07-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Directly reaching the Iranian people can be achieved in two ways: (1) supporting political opposition groups that explicitly advocate regime change, and (2) empowering human rights and other nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) that do not directly engage in political action but support issues such as women and children's rights, labor rights, and religious freedom. Although the latter groups do not pursue political goals, the Iranian regime considers them subversive entities seeking to overthrow the Islamic Republic.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, and Middle East

1232. Somalia's Future

Author:
Jennifer Cooke and David Henek
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
On January 17, 2007, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in collaboration with the Council on Foreign Relations, the U.S. Institute of Peace, and the Woodrow Wilson International Center, hosted a major conference in Washington, D.C., entitled "Somalia's Future: Options for Diplomacy, Assistance, and Peace Operations." The conference brought together expert observers from Mogadishu, senior U.S. policymakers, representatives from humanitarian assistance organizations, and regional analysts to convey to a U.S. audience the current situation in Somalia and to lay out the challenges facing the United States and the broader international community.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, and Somalia

1233. Understanding East Asian Cross-Regionalism: An Analytical Framework

Author:
Mireya Solís and Saori N. Katada
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
University of British Columbia
Abstract:
A key feature of East Asian FTA diplomacy remains unacknowledged and, therefore, unaccounted for: the activism displayed in seeking preferential trading relations with countries outside the region. While European and North American countries have also pursued cross-regional trade agreements (CRTAs), East Asia is unique in pursuing extra-regional partnerships before consolidating the regional trade integration process. This framework article identifies the common patterns and fundamental factors behind the East Asian governments' moves towards establishing CRTAs. After laying out the conventional arguments—ranging from the extra-regional market dependence, the region's security arrangements, and economic and political motives behind East Asia's extra-regional interests—the article introduces the novel concept of "leverage." This notion highlights how cross-regional and intra-regional FTA initiatives are intimately linked: East Asian countries frequently choose an extraregional FTA partner in order to break regional inertias that hinder integration, to win domestic battles, and to appropriate extra-regional negotiation modalities that they can use in their subsequent intra-regional FTA negotiations. The article concludes with a summary of the findings from the country cases, and the policy implications of East Asia's porous regionalism, with its heavy doses of cross-regional trade initiatives.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
East Asia and North America

1234. Forming a Cross-Regional Partnership: The South Korea-Chile FTA and its Implications

Author:
Sung-Hoon Park and Min Gyo Koo
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
University of British Columbia
Abstract:
CRTAs have become a main feature of South Korea's newly found enthusiasm for a multi-track FTA strategy. In this study, we examine the rise of South Korea's aggressive FTA initiatives, with a special focus on the first cross-Pacific FTA, namely the South Korea-Chile FTA, and draw implications for South Korea's other RTA initiatives. South Korea's motivations to pursue CRTAs are complex. These include economic, political and diplomatic/leverage motives. South Korea's policy departure from its long-standing support for the multilateral trading system began with its FTA negotiations with Chile, a country located on the opposite side of the globe. Aside from the South Korea-Chile FTA, South Korea has been negotiating a number of other CRTAs. Most importantly, South Korea and the US began to negotiate a bilateral FTA in June 2006, the successful conclusion of which will have significant economic and strategic repercussions not only for South Korea but also for its neighboring East Asian countries. The economic and strategic motivations of the political leadership, as well as the new bureaucratic balance of power centered on the Office of the Minister for Trade, have played a significant role in South Korea's dramatic rush toward RTAs. Although South Korea's pursuit of RTAs does not necessarily mean that it has completely abandoned the multilateral trading system, the policy departure is increasingly becoming obvious and significant.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
United States, South Korea, and Chile

1235. The Japan-Mexico FTA: A Cross-Regional Step in the Path towards Asian Regionalism

Author:
Mireya Solís and Saori N. Katada
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
University of British Columbia
Abstract:
By most accounts, Japan and Mexico remain distant economic partners with only a modest volume of bilateral trade and foreign direct investment, and a large geographical and cultural gulf between them. By this depiction, the Japanese decision to negotiate with Mexico is puzzling if not downright nonsensical: Why would Japan invest so much political capital in the negotiation of a complex free trade agreement (FTA) with a nation accounting for such a minuscule share of its international economic exchange? Solís and Katada challenge this interpretation of Japan's second bilateral FTA ever, and demonstrate that far from being irrational or insignificant, the stakes involved in the Japan-Mexico FTA were very high, and that this crossregional initiative stands to exert powerful influence over the future evolution of Japan's shift towards economic regionalism. For a number of Japanese industries (automobiles, electronics and government procurement contractors) negotiating with Mexico was essential to level the playing field vis-à-vis their American and European rivals, which already enjoyed preferential access to the Mexican market based on their FTAs. For the Japanese trade bureaucrats, negotiations with Mexico offered an opportunity to tip the domestic balance in favour of an active FTA diplomacy, despite the opposition of the agricultural lobby. Negotiations with Mexico constituted a litmus test, both for the Japanese government and in the eyes of potential FTA partners in Asia, on whether Japan could offer a satisfactory liberalization package to prospective FTA partners to make these negotiations worthwhile.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Japan, America, Asia, and Mexico

1236. Southeast Asian Cross-Regional FTAs: Origins, Motives and Aims

Author:
Stephen Hoadley
Publication Date:
06-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
University of British Columbia
Abstract:
This article surveys the free trade agreement (FTA) initiatives of three governments: Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia. It examines each in a search for motives, not only for negotiating FTAs within the region but also for reaching outside Asia to find negotiating partners. It finds that the presumption of economic gain as the primary motive must be qualified because the markets of many of the extra-regional partners are relatively small in Asian terms, and their trade and investment barriers are already amongst the lowest in the world. This is especially true of New Zealand and Chile, which nevertheless are becoming popular extra-regional partners for Asian governments. While the national and sectoral economic motives announced by the trade spokespeople for Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia are acknowledged as predominant, this article goes beyond such declarations to explore the explicit and implicit diplomatic, political and bureaucratic aims that could account more fully for these trade negotiation initiatives. In accordance with the conceptual analysis presented by Solís and Katada in this issue of Pacific Affairs, the drivers of FTAs are grouped into three broad categories: 1) economic motives; 2) security and diplomatic motives; and 3) leverage motives. Seven hypotheses derived from these categories are employed to guide this survey of recent FTA initiatives by Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia, and to explore their reasons for engaging with FTA partners both outside and within the Southeast Asian region.
Topic:
Security and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Southeast Asia

1237. Syria's Relations with Iraq

Publication Date:
01-2007
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Insight Turkey
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
Syrian diplomacy, crowned last November by the re-establishment of bilateral relations and in January by the first state visit of an Iraqi president to Syria in nearly 30 years, seeks to promote Damascus's strategic interests amidst Iraq's continuing violence. Syria initially favored the "managed chaos" that characterized Iraq in the several months following the U.S. invasion because it kept U.S. troops "pinned down" and therefore unlikely to invade Syria. However, the past year's dramatic escalation in sectarian violence, coupled with fears of Iraq's potential disintegration, has impelled Syria to seek greater stability in Iraq. In particular, Damascus has signaled its displeasure with Iraqi Kurdish autonomy, which has emboldened Syria's Kurdish population, estimated at 1.7 million.
Topic:
Diplomacy and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, and Syria

1238. 2007 EU Progress Report on Turkey: A Step Forward?

Author:
Mesut Özcan
Publication Date:
12-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
Abstract:
The EU progress reports on candidate countries are important indicators of how EU institutions manage and monitor the accession process. The 2007 European Union progress report on Turkey's EU membership gives a comprehensive account of how EU evaluates the political developments in Turkey. While the report is overall positive and supportive of the reform agenda of the AK Party government, it contains legitimate criticisms as well as debatable assessments on the Cyprus issue. Despite the shortcomings, Turkey should continue its efforts to strengthen democratization and focus on public diplomacy in the EU member countries.
Topic:
Democratization and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

1239. Looking after Australians overseas

Author:
Hugh White
Publication Date:
10-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
What is the problem? As more and more Australians travel and live overseas, the Australian Government finds itself under increasing pressure to provide consular help and support, especially in emergencies. Providing these consular services is a traditional role for government representatives abroad, but both the scale and the nature of the demand have grown significantly in recent years. The demand from Australians for evacuation from South Lebanon during the conflict there last year demonstrated how far community expectations of the nature and scale of consular help have increased. This raises two problems. First, there is an issue of expectation management; community expectations are starting to run ahead of what can practicably be provided. Second, there is a problem of resources and priorities. While the consular workload has grown, the resources of Australia's Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade have not, and the result has inevitably been a diversion of resources away from other diplomatic tasks. That is something Australia can ill afford.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Government
Political Geography:
Australia and Lebanon

1240. Staying the course - The Options of the West in the Face of Belarus

Author:
Arkady Moshes and Hiski Haukkala
Publication Date:
02-2007
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The West should keep a close eye on Belarus. Events during recent weeks have resulted in some unexpected shifts in Belarus' foreign policy. Apparently, President Lukashenko now sees the main challenge to his power to be coming from Russia's direction, and feels the need to look for support from the West. Over time, this could also herald some potentially far-reaching changes inside the country. One should not expect Lukashenko's regime to vanish overnight. Despite the increases in gas and oil prices, the country's economic situation is likely to remain stable for the foreseeable future. What is more, the political opposition remains weak and fragmented. The Belarusian foreign policy line is not developing within the “Russia-West” axis only. In reality, the Minsk contacts are more diversifi ed than is sometimes believed. Most visible are the ties with Venezuela, Iran, and China, as well as some other Latin American and Arab countries. The Western actors should be cautioned against taking Lukashenko's recent overtures at face value. It is quite likely that they may end up being deceived and merely help Lukashenko perpetuate his regime. More importantly, by rushing to embrace Lukashenko, the West would only discredit its own liberal agenda as well as betray the very opposition forces in Belarus that it has sought to cultivate. Despite the rapid pace of recent events, the West should be in no hurry to react. Time remains to follow the developments. The West – especially the European Union – should voice its continued support for the liberal agenda of the genuine opposition in Belarus and be ready to approach the country with a generous programme of rapprochement should the ice begin to thaw in the as yet frozen river.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Asia