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1121. Low and Behold

Author:
Edward L. Morse
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
After dropping from close to $150 in the summer of 2008 to under $34 last winter, the price of oil had more than doubled by the spring and was hovering around $60 in July. It is unlikely to rise to last summer's peak anytime soon. To the contrary, there are good reasons to believe that lower prices are here to stay for a while. Last year's high prices and the recession have severely damped demand, and the growth of new production capacity, especially in Saudi Arabia, is buoying supplies. The rapid fall and then rebound in oil prices over the past year surprised many people. But it was not unusual: commodities markets are cyclical by nature and have a history punctuated by sudden turning points. Although this generally makes it difficult to forecast prices, it is safe to say that commodities markets will remain lower over the next few years than they have been over the past five. In the oil industry, the most important new factor that accounts for low prices is the return of surplus production capacity among the members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for the first time since 2002-3. Most oil industry analysts expect high prices to return soon, along with economic recovery. This is probably a mistaken view; more likely, the prices for oil and other commodities will be range-bound again. This would be a happy development, as it would provide unusual opportunities to tame the volatility in prices. An extended period of low prices could reverse the trend toward resource nationalism, the tendency of producing countries to concentrate control over their resources in the hands of state-run entities, that has characterized energy politics for most of the last decade. It would also translate into new chances for constructive diplomacy with oil producers and set the stage for more balanced relationships between energy producers and their buyers.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Saudi Arabia

1122. Without Conditions

Author:
Deepak Malhotra
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Foreign Affairs
Institution:
Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:
Diplomacy appears ready to make a comeback. The United States, after years of reluctance, is reconsidering the role of negotiation in confronting extremism and managing international conflict. India has resisted an aggressive response to the 2008 terrorist attacks in Mumbai and is open to diplomatic engagement with Pakistan over Kashmir. Participants in the six-party talks have been scrambling to decide whether, when, and how to engage North Korea since its nuclear test of May 2009. The generals in Afghanistan are busier today than they have been in recent years, but so are the diplomats. Certainly, not everyone has rushed to the bargaining table -- witness, for example, the military defeat of the Tamil Tigers in Sri Lanka. But governments around the world are asking themselves the same important question: When should they negotiate with their enemies? Determining the precise conditions for such talks is never easy. In the shadow of terrorism, the calculus is all the more complex. Not only can acts of belligerence or extremist violence strain or derail ongoing negotiations, but the persistence of violence is often the primary reason governments refuse to negotiate in the first place. This has long been the case in Israel, for example, where successive governments, especially those led by the conservative Likud Party, have refused to negotiate with Palestinian leaders until they bring the violence to a halt. The same dynamics influenced the peace process in Northern Ireland in the years leading up to the 1998 Good Friday Agreement. North Korea's recent provocations have elicited a similar response from hard-liners in Japan, South Korea, and the United States. The ability of extremists to derail negotiations through violence and belligerence presents policymakers with a high-stakes dilemma: Should the muzzling of extremism be set as a precondition to negotiations, or should negotiations be initiated in order to reduce support for extremism? Similar considerations have plagued peace efforts around the world, from Colombia, where the government has struggled for decades to determine when it should demand a cease-fire from FARC (the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), to Kashmir, where using violence to derail prospective talks has become a predictable tactic. In Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan, surges in extremist violence are threatening to further destabilize already-weak governments.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Kashmir, and Mumbai

1123. Reshuffling The Cards? (II): Syria's New Hand

Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Syria typically, and at times justifiably, brings to mind stagnation and immobility. Yet, over recent years, change has been afoot. In 2008, it agreed to Turkish-mediated talks with Israel. It built ties with the Iraqi government after long depicting it as the offspring of an illegitimate occupation. It began to normalise relations with Lebanon, after years of resisting its claim to sovereignty. It accelerated economic reforms. These steps fall short of being revolutionary; some were imposed rather than chosen and reflected opportunism rather than forward thinking. Still, by Syrian standards, they are quite remarkable, especially in contrast to recent fervent militancy.
Topic:
Diplomacy
Political Geography:
Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, Syria, and Maryland

1124. Iran, the United States, and the Gulf: The Elusive Regional Policy

Author:
Marina Ottaway
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Any effective diplomatic approach to Iran must involve a regional strategy. While Iran's nuclear program is presently the most urgent dimension for the United States and the international community to confront, unless the country can be reintegrated into a normal web of international relations, any progress made on that front is likely to be short-lived. Iran's neighbors — particularly the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, which share a concern for Gulf security — can be important players in that process of reintegration. These six states, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Oman, are afraid of Iranian hegemony in the Gulf, but are too small or too timid to challenge their northern neighbor, so they seek to develop normal relations with Tehran while protecting their interests.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Iran, Kuwait, Tehran, Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, and Oman

1125. Back from the cold? The EU and Belarus in 2009

Author:
Grzegorz Gromadzki, Vitali Silitski, Margarita M. Balmaceda, Sabine Fischer, Andrei Liakhovich, Astrid Sahm, and Leonid Zlotnikov
Publication Date:
11-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Abstract:
The EU and Belarus have arrived at an important but difficult crossroads. After a long freeze, relations between Brussels and Minsk have been thawing over the past year. In September 2008, the Council of the European Union announced its readiness to 'begin to review the restrictive measures against Belarusian leaders and to take positive and concrete measures that may lead to a gradual engagement, including via a meeting between the European Union troika and the Belarusian Minister for Foreign Affairs'. A month later, on 13 October, the Council decided to restore political dialogue with the Belarusian authorities and to suspend travel restrictions against leading Belarusian officials for a period of six months. The package of restrictive measures imposed on Belarus in 2006 was extended for one year. Since October 2008, three Troika meetings between the EU and Belarus have taken place. They were complemented by a visit to Minsk by EU High Representative Javier Solana in February, and a visit by EU Commissioner for External Relations and European Neighbourhood Policy Benita Ferrero-Waldner in June. Mean- while, the European Commission and the Belarusian govern-ment held consultations and began technical cooperation in the fields of energy, transport, phytosanitary regulations and agriculture at the beginning of 2009. In May 2009, Belarus was included in the multilateral dimension of the Eastern Partner- ship. The EU and Belarus launched a dialogue on human rights issues in June 2009.
Topic:
Development, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and Asia

1126. Sulaiman Meets Obama as Washington's Lebanese Allies Face Crisis at Home

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
12-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On December 14, Lebanese president Michel Sulaiman is scheduled to meet with President Barack Obama at the White House. It is widely anticipated that during his visit, Sulaiman will request administration support for an increase in U.S. military assistance. Despite concerns that U.S. materiel will leak to Hizballah, Washington will likely agree to augment this funding, given the Lebanese Armed Force's excellent security record with equipment of U.S. origin. The question of U.S. military funding for Lebanon highlights recent developments in Lebanese politics that point to the resurgence of Hizballah -- and its Syrian and Iranian backers -- in Beirut. Although the pro-West March 14 coalition scored an impressive electoral victory in June, six months later, the government that has emerged constitutes a setback for Washington and its Lebanese allies. The scope of the setback -- for both the coalition and the United States -- was recently summarized by Syrian Ambassador to the United States Imad Mustafa, who said, "We love it!... It is exactly the sort of government we think should rule Lebanon."
Topic:
Diplomacy and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Arabia, and Lebanon

1127. Mediation and Peace Processes: IPI Blue Paper no. 8

Author:
Christoph Mikulaschek
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute
Abstract:
Today more than ever before, armed conflicts are likely to end in mediated settlements. As mediation activity has surged since the end of the Cold War, its dynamics have undergone significant change as well.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Cold War, Diplomacy, Peace Studies, and War

1128. The Carter Center News: Fall 2009

Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Carter Center
Abstract:
President Carter tells the story of the inspiration for The Carter Center by recalling how in 1981 amid fundraising for his presidential library and trying to figure out what to do with the rest of his life, he awoke one night and sat up in bed. Mrs. Carter, worried, asked him what was wrong. He replied that he wanted to create an institute similar to Camp David adjacent to the new library, where warring factions could go for mediation. And so The Carter Center was born.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Human Rights, Humanitarian Aid, Poverty, and Foreign Aid
Political Geography:
Sudan

1129. The impact of the global economic crisis on Central Asia and its implications for the EU engagement

Author:
Nargis Kassenova
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
There is a profound connection between economics and politics. A stronger economy creates a basis for more ambitious political actions and programmes. At the opposite end, an economic downturn and recession breed social tensions and can undermine the political order. Both the EU and Central Asian states have been seriously affected by the global economic crisis, in different ways. This EUCAM working paper focuses on the impact of the crisis on Central Asian politics and geopolitics and the implications of these developments for EU engagement in the region.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Europe and Central Asia

1130. Central Asia's growing partnership with China

Author:
Sébastien Peyrouse
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for European Policy Studies
Abstract:
Since the start of the 2000s, the People's Republic of China (PRC) has become an increasingly important player on the Central Asian scene, which until then had been essentially divided between Russia and the US. Today, Central Asia's future lies in its ability to avoid the destabilisations of the Afghan–Pakistan zone, and through Chinese influence, to partake of the Asia–Pacific's economic prosperity. In less than two decades, Beijing has managed to make a massive and multiform entry onto the Central Asian scene: it has proven itself a loyal partner on the level of bilateral diplomacy and has succeeded in turning the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) into a regional structure appreciated by its members. China has also become a leading actor in trade as well as in the hydrocarbon sector and infrastructure. In examining the shift that China has generated in Central Asian realities, this paper focuses on the political and geopolitical impact of Beijing's growing influence, along with the economic implications of the Chinese presence in Central Asia. To what extent will this affect the objectives of the European Union? China is one of the EU's economic competitors in domains such as energy; it obstructs cooperation between Central Asian states and Western countries, and it encourages the authoritarian tendencies of political regimes. Yet, partnership and economic competition go hand in hand, as EU texts recognise. In addition, the EU's rationale for setting up in Central Asia is not to compete with neighbouring states, but instead to seek cooperation in accordance with the idea that a multiplicity of actors will guarantee the zone's stability and its geopolitical balance. So what joint interest might China and the EU have in Central Asia? On a certain number of questions such as security and long-term development, the EU and China share the same concerns and Beijing is seeking greater collaboration with Europe.
Topic:
Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Central Asia