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1. Overcoming digital threats to democracy

Author:
Lydia Khalil
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
The internet was once considered an open door to democracy and liberty. Today, it is seen as an agent of democratic erosion. Digital challenges to democracy include the scale and spread of disinformation and misinformation, the increase in polarisation and extremism that are facilitated and escalated online, and inadequate regulation. Digital platforms are increasingly perceived by the public as serving the needs and interests of the powerful rather than the public good. Average users have few means to influence key decisions and debates about how digital technologies are used and developed. The rules of the digital sphere — whether made by tech companies, regulators, or politicians — often lack public legitimacy. Applying deliberative democracy principles — where small but representative groups of people make decisions after deliberating on issues in depth — can help address the challenges of legitimacy and generate broadly acceptable solutions to the problems that bedevil online spaces and challenge democracy.
Topic:
Democracy, Disinformation, Polarization, and Digital Technologies
Political Geography:
Global Focus

2. War volunteers in the digital age: How new technologies transform conflict dynamics

Author:
Jethro Norman
Publication Date:
07-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Danish Institute for International Studies (DIIS)
Abstract:
Citizens traveling to participate in foreign wars have long posed significant challenges for states. The advent of smartphones and global connectivity has added new layers of complexity to this issue. With a particular focus on the conflict in Ukraine, this brief explores how digital technologies are reshaping the landscape of foreign participation in warfare.
Topic:
Armed Conflict, Russia-Ukraine War, Digital Technologies, and Volunteers
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Global Focus

3. De-risking by promoting digital solutions for green tech: Going Dutch?

Author:
Alexandre Ferreira Gomes, Giulia Cretti, and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:
02-2024
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, the growing demand for technologies that will accelerate the green transition exposes European countries to risks. Most attention is devoted to strategic dependencies on China for critical raw materials (CRM) and components that are necessary for such technologies. However, the data-driven digital elements and applications used, for instance, to optimise energy use are also relevant, as they intensify cybersecurity and data privacy-related concerns. To de-risk Europe’s strategic dependencies in this field, adopting a balanced approach between ‘promoting’, ‘protecting’ and ‘partnering’ is essential. This Clingendael Policy Brief focuses on the ‘promote’ angle by exploring the role of the Dutch government and private sector in fostering the Dutch digital green-tech industry. With its track record in innovation within the EU, the Netherlands is well placed to boost the commercialisation of digital green technologies through procurement. Moreover, the Netherlands could lead the discussions on defining cybersecurity standards and interoperability norms at EU and international forums.
Topic:
Partnerships, Green Technology, Digital Technologies, and Critical Raw Materials (CRM)
Political Geography:
Europe and Netherlands

4. AI and the US Economy: Optimism, Pessimism, or Realism?

Author:
Fredrick Hernandez, Zach Moller, and Gabe Horwitz
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Third Way
Abstract:
There were 130 websites on the internet in 1993; today there are 1.1 billion.1 Over those 30 years, the US economy quadrupled in nominal size and tripled in per capita income.2 The digital age has been very good for America. But it has also concentrated wealth and opportunity. The richest American in 1993 would only be the 101st richest today in inflation-adjusted dollars.3 There are now 735 billionaires living in America today, compared to fewer than 75 in the world in 1993.4 Meanwhile, the gains for the middle class were not stellar. Real median household income grew a solid, but not spectacular, 32% during the internet age. Most of that gain accrued to the two-fifths of working age America with a college degree.5 “50% to 70% of the changes in the US wage structure are intimately linked to automation, particularly digital automation,” MIT economist Daron Acemoglu estimates.6 That was the digital age. What about the artificial intelligence age? Ask McKinsey partner Michael Chui about AI and he says “it can be great not only for companies but for humankind.”7 But Eliezer Yudkowsky, co-founder of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, said that if someone builds an over-powered AI, he expects “that every single member of the human species and all biological life on Earth dies shortly thereafter.”8 What seems clear is that whether we’re addressing the future of humankind or the well-being of the workforce, policymakers and industries must make intentional choices to get the best of AI and avoid the worst. Since AI will change the way we work and learn, this paper unpacks different economic projections to give policymakers a better read on what this technology will do to everything from American GDP to skill training. Broadly speaking, there are three distinct perspectives on AI and the economy. Optimists predict AI will elevate the working class, accelerate our national prosperity, and lower costs. Pessimists say AI will contribute to income inequality in the United States, jobs will be automated out of existence, and large corporations will gain far more than workers and families. Pragmatists accept AI will have positive benefits to the economy but acknowledge the mixed bag of how it will affect jobs and generally call for specific actions to mitigate harms and spread benefits. Below, we explore the key takeaways from each perspective. This is a product in a multi-year series to help educate policymakers on the implications and policy choices confronting Congress and the Administration on next generation Artificial Intelligence.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Economy, Artificial Intelligence, Digital Technologies, and Optimism
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

5. Analysing the German construction industry’s supply chains

Author:
Johanna Neuhoff, Hannah Zick, and Andy Logan
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Oxford Economics
Abstract:
The supply chain disruptions triggered by the coronavirus pandemic, the blockade of the Suez Canal, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine were historically unique for Germany’s construction sector. Our research showed how these supply chain disruptions affected construction companies in various ways and identified strategies to help overcome them. The dominant effects were higher purchase prices, longer waiting times, and increased resources devoted towards planning. These longer waiting times meant greater difficulties in processing existing orders and a consequent need to forego new orders, which in turn led to a loss of turnover. Our research also found its supply chain was more globally intertwined than previously understood: the sector generates 40% of gross value added via imported services. Thirteen of the 57 imported intermediate inputs were found to be highly vulnerable. Other industry-specific characteristics include a high level of manufacturing complexity, which leads to a large number of required products. Meanwhile warehousing is often difficult, meaning supply chain interruptions have a direct impact on production capacity. Our recommendations to the Federal Institute for Research on Building, Urban Affairs, and Spatial Development were that companies should: Control their supply chains as completely as possible with digital technologies —from procurement and logistics to delivery to the construction site; Use digitalisation to detect disruptions at an earlier stage and react to them; Secure greater supply of raw materials through domestic production; Replace fossil energy sources with renewable energies; Select their suppliers in a diversified manner as far as possible; and Promote innovation for new future technologies.
Topic:
Manufacturing, Renewable Energy, Fossil Fuels, COVID-19, Logistics, Supply Chains, Production, Construction, Russia-Ukraine War, Digital Technologies, and Warehousing
Political Geography:
Europe and Germany