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452. Growth in an uncertain global environment: The outlook for Latin America
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The growth rates witnessed in markets across Latin America in the decade to 2010 pulled millions out of poverty, led to rapid growth of the middle class and helped to demonstrate the promise of emerging markets. Since then, however, growth has slowed dramatically across the region. 2015 will mark the fifth successive year of deceleration in Latin America, which has slowed more than any other emerging market region. With concerns over the ability of emerging markets to withstand a slowdown in China and monetary policy normalisation in the US growing, risks to the growth and financing outlook for Latin America persist. However, as economic recovery starts to gather pace in the region, opportunities for investment and growth will also re-emerge. This report provides a snapshot of the current political and economic landscape in the region, and in some of Latin America’s largest economies: Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. Each article analyses key concerns and presents our view of the outlook going forward, helping you to influence decision-making and economic outcomes for your business.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
- Political Geography:
- Latin America
453. Curbing Violence in Nigeria (III): Revisiting the Niger Delta
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Violence in the Niger Delta may soon increase unless the Nigerian government acts quickly and decisively to address long-simmering grievances. With the costly Presidential Amnesty Program for ex-insurgents due to end in a few months, there are increasingly bitter complaints in the region that chronic poverty and catastrophic oil pollution, which fuelled the earlier rebellion, remain largely unaddressed. Since Goodluck Jonathan, the first president from the Delta, lost re-election in March, some activists have resumed agitation for greater resource control and self-determination, and a number of ex-militant leaders are threatening to resume fighting (“return to the creeks”). While the Boko Haram insurgency in the North East is the paramount security challenge, President Muhammadu Buhari rightly identifies the Delta as a priority. He needs to act firmly but carefully to wind down the amnesty program gradually, revamp development and environmental programs, facilitate passage of the long-stalled Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) and improve security and rule of law across the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Development, Environment, Oil, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
454. Hard Aid: Foreign Aid in the Pursuit of Short-term Security and Political Goals
- Author:
- Nathaniel Myers
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- Facing serious crises in the Middle East and beyond, Washington is again turning to foreign aid to help advance urgent short-term security and political priorities. This so-called hard aid entails goals and challenges that are distinct from traditional development and humanitarian aid programs, but Washington is relying on existing aid systems and structures to pursue such work in crisis countries like Syria and Yemen. While this ad hoc approach is administratively and politically convenient, it reduces strategic effectiveness and undercuts long-term development efforts. Both legislative and executive action should be taken to redress these failings.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, Humanitarian Aid, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, and Syria
455. Kurdistan’s Politicized Society Confronts a Sultanistic System
- Author:
- Kawa Hassan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The Kurdistan region of Iraq enjoys more stability, economic development, and political pluralism than the rest of the country. And public opinion under the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) demands rule-of-law-based governance. But power is concentrated in the hands of the ruling parties and families, who perpetuate a nondemocratic, sultanistic system. These dynamics could foster instability in Kurdistan and its neighborhood, but could also provide a rare window of opportunity for democratization.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Development, Economics, Political Economy, Governance, and Authoritarianism
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan
456. Japanese Investment in the United States: Superior Performance, Increasing Integration
- Author:
- Theodore H. Moran and Lindsay Oldenski
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Japan is reemerging as the most important source of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the United States. In 2013 Japanese firms were the largest source of new inflows of FDI into the United States for the first time since 1992, injecting almost $45 billion of fresh investment into the US economy in that year alone. Moran and Oldenski show how Japanese investment in the United States differs from that of other countries along several dimensions. These differences not only make FDI by Japanese firms especially valuable but point to some important policy goals for attracting it. Although the automotive sector is the single largest industry for Japanese investment in the United States, the focus should not be on competing to attract the auto industry in particular nor should any active industrial policy of "picking winners" be pursued. Japanese investment is unique because of its research and development intensity, manifested across a number of industries in which Japanese multinationals invest other than automobiles. US policy should focus on reinforcing and expanding the factors that attract high-performing firms and high-value production stages to the United States, regardless of industry.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Foreign Direct Investment, and United States
- Political Geography:
- Japan
457. Do Public Development Banks Hurt Growth? Evidence from Brazil
- Author:
- Monica de Bolle
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- Public lending by the Brazilian Development Bank (BNDES) may have done more harm than good in Brazil, adversely affecting real interest rates and productivity growth. Specifically, BNDES's large amounts of subsidized lending are responsible for substantial credit market segmentation, choking off monetary policy transmission. As a result, to maintain price stability the Central Bank of Brazil is forced to raise interest rates more than it might do otherwise in the absence of BNDES lending. Restoring Brazil's capacity to grow in the medium term requires a thorough rethinking of the role of BNDES. In particular, the bank's lending rates should be aligned with market prices, term and risk premia, while taking into account that, with an adequate transparency framework, public development banks can increase private sector participation instead of crowding it out.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Markets
- Political Geography:
- Brazil and Latin America
458. The post-2015 agenda and the evolution of the World Bank Group
- Author:
- Homi Kharas
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The Addis Ababa Action Agenda reaffirms the central role of development banks in providing concessional and non-concessional long-term financing, countercyclical financing, guarantees and leverage, policy advice, capacity building, and other support to the post-2015 agenda. "We recognize the significant potential of multilateral development banks and other international development banks in financing sustainable development and providing know-how. We stress that development banks should make optimal use of their resources and balance sheets, consistent with maintaining their financial integrity, and should update and develop their policies in support of the post-2015 development agenda, including the sustainable development goals (SDGs)."
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, and World Bank
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
459. Driving sustainable development through better infrastructure: Key elements of a transformation program
- Author:
- Lord Nicholas Stern, Jeremy Oppenheim, and Amar Bhattacharya
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- The agendas of accelerating sustainable development and eradicating poverty and that of climate change are deeply intertwined. Growth strategies that fail to tackle poverty and/or climate change will prove to be unsustainable, and vice versa. A common denominator to the success of both agendas is infrastructure development. Infrastructure is an essential component of growth, development, poverty reduction, and environmental sustainability.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Economics, Poverty, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
460. Today's challenges for girls' education
- Author:
- Elizabeth King and Rebecca Winthrop
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Brookings Institution
- Abstract:
- Educating a girl is one of the best investments her family, community, and country can make. We know that a good quality education can be life-changing for girls, boys, young women, and men, helping them develop to their full potential and putting them on a path for success in their life. We also know that educating a girl in particular can kick-start a virtuous circle of development. More educated girls, for example, marry later, have healthier children, earn more money that they invest back into their families and communities, and play more active roles in leading their communities and countries.
- Topic:
- Development, Education, Gender Issues, and Human Welfare
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus