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4561. Income Distribution Changes and their Impact in the Post-World War II Period

Author:
Tony Addison, Giovanni Andrea Cornia, and Sampsa Kiiski
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper analyses the trends in within-country inequality during the post- World War II period, with particular attention to the last 20 years, on the basis of a review of the relevant literature and of an econometric analysis of inequality trends in 73 countries accounting for 80 per cent of the world's population and 91 per cent of world GDP-PPP. The paper suggests that the last two decades have been characterized by a surge in within-country inequality in about two-thirds of the developing, developed and transitional nations analysed. It also suggests that in those countries where the upsurge in inequality was sizeable or where inequality rose from already high levels, growth and poverty alleviation slowed down perceptibly. While this trend towards higher inequality differs substantially across countries in its extent, timing and specific causes, it marks a clear departure from that observed during the first 30 years of the post-World War II period during which, with the exception of Latin America and parts of Sub-Saharan Africa, a widespread move towards greater egalitarianism was noted in the majority of the socialist, developing and industrialized economies.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Political Economy, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Latin America

4562. Analysis of Deviations and Delays in Aid Disbursements

Author:
Matthew Odedokun
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The study seeks to identify donor-specific factors that cause donors to delay aid disbursement, and to apply a double standard in dealing with the non-compliance of a recipient with regard to aid conditionalities, a practice that promotes uncertainty in the receipt of aid. Annual panel data over 1970-2000 for the 22 members of OECD's DAC donor group are employed in the empirical study. Our findings suggest that the proportion of pledged aid being disbursed, which shows an increasing trend, is positively affected by the extent to which aid is procurement-tied and by the size of the donor government's expenditure in relation to GDP. On the other hand, the proportion of aid commitments being disbursed, which appears lower for the G7 countries, is negatively influenced by factors such as abundant donor generosity, the predominance of grants in total aid, the specific targeting of aid to lower-income recipients, high growth in donor economy, as well as high level of checks and balances, and polarization between the executive and legislative branches of government in the donor country.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, and Non-Governmental Organization

4563. The Theoretical, Conceptual and Empirical Impact of the Service Economy: A Critical Review

Author:
Birgitte Andersen and Marva Corley
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper offers a critical review of the conventional economic classification, measurement and valuation of output, and related performance indicators, for the service sector. The paper also explores and contrasts long-standing views on the service knowledge base and service innovations, as well as the global aspects of many services. A problem arises when historical industrial classification schemes treat services as being 'immaterial' (i.e. everything that is not manufacturing and agriculture), while ignoring that the activities of services in the economy, as well as the corporate structures of firms, transcend such classification schemes at any level of aggregation. Other problems arise when associated traditional analytical methods measure services input and output and related performance indicators using the same conceptual framework and indicators as those that are applied for problem solving for agriculture and manufacturing. Such entanglements have other and wider consequences for understanding the impact of the new economy and for designing appropriate policy.
Topic:
Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

4564. Descriptive and Prescriptive Analyses of Aid Allocation: Approaches, Issues and Consequences

Author:
Mark McGillivray
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Studies of the inter-recipient allocation of aid may be categorized threefold. First, there are those which attempt to explain the observed allocation of aid. Second, there are those which seek to describe or evaluate the allocation of aid against normative criteria. Third, there are those which seek to prescribe the inter-recipient allocation of aid by calculating the amounts of aid each country should receive, also based on normative criteria. This paper looks at the second and third categories of studies. It commences by looking at the different approaches or descriptive measures used, and then repeats this exercise for the prescriptive literature. It then compares the prescribed allocations of the different approaches used in the literature. These allocations are compared to actual allocations and then evaluated against various normative criteria. This reveals significant differences, both between prescribed and actual allocations and the evaluations of the different prescriptive approaches.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Non-Governmental Organization, and Poverty

4565. Asylum Migration and Implications for Countries of Origin

Author:
Khalid Koser and Nicholas Van Hear
Publication Date:
03-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The purpose of this paper is to synthesize what is known about the influence of asylum migration on countries of origin. It combines an analysis of data, a review of the literature and empirical examples from our own research. In the first section we consider the effects of the absence of refugees on countries of origin, focusing on the scale of movements, the characteristics of refugees, where they go and their length of time in exile. In the second section, we review the evidence about the influence of asylum-seekers and refugees on their country of origin from exile. Third, we consider the implications for countries of origin of the return of asylum-seekers and refugees. The conclusion acknowledges the limited state of current knowledge and draws out some policy implications.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Development, Human Welfare, and Migration

4566. Aid Disaggregation, Endogenous Aid and the Public Sector in Aid-Recipient Economies: Evidence from Côte d'Ivoire

Author:
George Mavrotas and Bazoumana Ouattara
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The present paper examines the impact of different aid types, namely project aid, programme aid, technical assistance and food aid on the fiscal sector of the aid-recipient economy by using time-series data for Côte d'Ivoire over the period 1975–99. Empirical results obtained by estimating correctly the solution of the theoretical model show that when a single value (or aggregated) for aid is used, foreign aid is fully consumed in the case of Côte d'Ivoire. However, results obtained under the assumption of aid heterogeneity clearly suggest that the government responds differently according to the nature of the aid inflows. Our approach sheds plenty of light on how the aid-recipient government reacts to different categories of foreign aid inflows and the empirical findings clearly demonstrate the importance of the aid disaggregation approach for delving deeper into aid effectiveness issues.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Non-Governmental Organization
Political Geography:
Africa

4567. Financial Sector Development — Futile or Fruitful? An Examination of the Determinants of Savings in Sri Lanka

Author:
George Mavrotas and Roger Kelly
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper documents the financial and institutional developments of China during the past two decades, when China was successfully transformed from a rigid centralplanning economy to a dynamic market economy following its unique path. We empirically examine the relationship between financial development and economic growth in China by employing a panel sample covering 31 Chinese provinces during the important transition period 1986-2002. Our evidence suggests that the development of financial markets, institutions, and instruments have been robustly associated with economic growth in China.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
South Asia

4568. Financial Sector Reforms and Savings Mobilization in Zambia

Author:
George Mavrotas and Samuel Manzele Maimbo
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper explores the relationship between financial sector reforms and savings mobilization in Zambia. Although there exists an extensive literature on financial sector development and savings levels in developing countries, there does not seem to exist satisfactory work on the above nexus for sub-Saharan African countries, particularly Zambia. Along these lines, the paper examines the linkages between the financial reforms of the early 1990s and savings mobilization. It considers the characteristics of banks and non-bank financial institutions, especially micro finance institutions, and savings levels and identifies problems associated with the relatively poor performance of savings in recent years and concludes with a set of policy guidelines for strengthening savings mobilization, highlighting the expected effect on povertyreducing growth.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
Africa and Nordic Nations

4569. Savings and Financial Sector Development: Panel Cointegration Evidence from Africa

Author:
George Mavrotas and Roger Kelly
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper uses different measures of financial sector development for a dynamic heterogeneous panel of 17 African countries to examine the impact of financial sector development on private savings. An innovative econometric methodology is also employed related to a series of cointegration tests within a panel. This is an important contribution since traditional panel data analysis adopted in previous studies suffers from serious heterogeneity bias problems. The empirical results obtained vary considerably among countries in the panel, thus highlighting the importance of using different measures of financial sector development rather than a single indicator. The evidence is rather inconclusive, although in most of the countries in the sample a positive relationship between financial sector development and private savings seems to hold. The empirical analysis also suggests that a change in government savings is offset by an opposite change in private savings in most of the countries in the panel, thus confirming the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis. Liquidity constraints do not seem to play a vital role in most of the African countries in the group, since the relevant coefficient is negative and significant in only a small group of countries
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and Poverty
Political Geography:
Africa

4570. The Composition of Aid and the Fiscal Sector in an Aid-Recipient Economy: A Model

Author:
George Mavrotas and Bazoumana Ouattara
Publication Date:
02-2003
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Building on recent work in the fiscal response literature, the present paper develops a new fiscal response model, which, for the first time in the relevant literature, combines the ideas of both endogenous and disaggregated aid. We endogenized aid on the grounds that the recipient government has some influence over aid disbursements. Regarding aid disaggregation, it is argued that each of the main four categories of aid, namely project aid, programme aid, technical assistance and food aid may exert different effects on the recipient economy. Furthermore, in case the preferences of the aid-recipient government are higher for some of these types of aid, neglecting aid disaggregation would lead to aggregation bias in the results and conclusions. The model adds an important new dimension to the vast aid effectiveness literature and calls for further modelling as well as empirical work in this promising research area so that significant policy implications can be derived.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, Non-Governmental Organization, and Poverty