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21. Family and Inequality: “Diverging Destinies” in Japan

Author:
James M. Raymo and Daniel Smith
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
“Diverging destinies” is a term used by family demographers and sociologists to describe growing socioeconomic differentials in family behavior and their implications. Drawing primarily on evidence from the U.S., research on diverging destinies has demonstrated that those at the lower end of the socioeconomic spectrum are increasingly engaging in family behaviors that are associated with reduction in the resources available to their children (e.g., nonmarital childbearing) while those at the upper end of the spectrum are engaging in family behaviors associated with increased resources (e.g., stable marriage). This pattern of family bifurcation has potentially important implications for the reinforcement of inequality both within and across generations. Despite tremendous interest in both family change and growing socioeconomic inequality in Japan, social scientific efforts to link these trends are limited. In this talk, Professor James Raymo will summarize the results of several recent papers (both published and in progress) on socioeconomic differences in family demographic behavior and children’s well-being in Japan. In general, the findings of these studies show patterns of family bifurcation consistent with predictions of the diverging destinies framework, but of a magnitude that is less pronounced than observed in the U.S. Among the most pronounced differences in Japan are a strong negative educational gradient in divorce and substantial differences in the well-being of children in single-mother and two-parent families. In thinking about the relevance of diverging destinies in Japan, he stresses the theoretical and empirical value of considering intergenerational family relationships, gender inequality, and the changing economic environment.
Topic:
Demographics, Inequality, Family, and Socioeconomics
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

22. Revising down the rise of China

Author:
Roland Rajah and Alyssa Leng
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
China will likely experience a substantial long-term growth slowdown owing to demographic decline, the limits of capital-intensive growth, and a gradual deceleration in productivity growth. Even with continued broad policy success, our baseline projections suggest annual economic growth will slow to about 3% by 2030 and 2% by 2040, while averaging 2–3% overall from now until 2050. China would still become the world’s largest economy, but it would never enjoy a meaningful lead over the US and would remain far less prosperous and productive per person even by mid-century.
Topic:
Demographics, Economy, Economic Growth, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and United States of America

23. Changing Population Patterns Will Reshape the Middle East

Author:
Patrick Clawson
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Several of the region’s demographic heavyweights will be surpassed, and major shifts at the global level may affect how great powers vie for influence there as well. The demographers in the UN’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs are widely regarded for their first-rate work, and their recently released World Population Prospects report is no exception. Alongside detailed demographic information on every UN member state, the twenty-seventh edition includes projections on how each of their populations will change through the year 2100. These forecasts suggest that demographic realities—and, presumably, power relationships—will shift considerably in many regions, including the Middle East. Forecasting is often an inexact art—think of the challenges facing pollsters, for instance. Yet demography is one discipline where practitioners and consumers can have substantial confidence in forecasts made even decades out. For instance, barring some catastrophe, observers have quite a good idea of what the population of fifty-year-olds will be forty-five years from now; after all, they have already been born.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Demographics, Economics, and Population
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

24. Local Governance of the Demographic Transition Process in Turkey: Aging Society and Urban Policies

Author:
Mehmet Şahin
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:
Demographic transition theory was developed in Europe as a result of the long-term monitoring of birth and death rates. While Turkey has been going through this process with its specific dynamics as a part of the demographic transition process, it is commonly said that as distinct from other countries of the world, it has a young and dynamic population, which is perceived as an advantage over other countries. This demographic imagination, which is desired to be seen as an advantage, functions as some kind of a moral support against unfavorable developments, socioeconomic crises, and unexpected failures.
Topic:
Demographics, Governance, Aging, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

25. Stolen decades: the unfulfilled expectations of the Belarusian economic miracle

Author:
Aleś Alachnovič and Julia Korosteleva
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:
The case of the Belarusian economy has puzzled many academic scholars for years. Belarus has often been referred to as a transition outlier, given its relatively fast recovery in 1996 and spectacular growth prior to the global financial crisis without much transformation of its economy. Three decades after gaining its independence, the state control of the economy still remains considerably high. Subsidized financing of state-owned enterprises allowed to preserve production capabilities over the first decade, to achieve some productivity gains in the late 1990s–early 2000s, and to avoid social destabilization. However, with a delay in structural reforms, this economic model, also heavily dependent on the Russian subsidies and foreign debt, has become fatigue, driving the economy into stagnation in the 2010s. The Covid-19 pandemic, the 2020 post-presidential political crisis and Russia’s war in Ukraine in 2022 put further strains on the economy, calling for change. This working paper gives an overview of the Belarusian economic developments before the presidential elections to have a better understanding of how various rigidities of the Belarusian economic model have amplified the detrimental effect of the political unrest for the economy and the Belarusian society overall, and discusses the anticrisis and mid-term economic reforms Belarus will have to undergo.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Economy, Social Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Belarus

26. Role of Demographic Factors in Children’s Language Acquisition at Middle Level: A South Asian Countries’ Survey Study

Author:
Sana Nazir Ahmed, Mehwish Liaqat, Rabia Aslam, and Muhammad Suhaib Karamat
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Language is one of the most complex abilities, especially teaching in a formal learning environment and demography may help to comprehend social and economic issues and find viable answers. It engages in market research, labor market analysis, insurance forecasting, economic development, and social planning. People in South Asian countries work for private and public institutions at local, regional, national, and international levels. This research deals with the language learning of child acquisition and its influence on demographic elements, and the most crucial element in this discussion is the various implications on South Asia countries and the results of a research study conducted among private and government students (N=500) who are studying in different Muslim and nonMuslims schools of Lahore, Pakistan. This study investigates the effect of demographic factors on children's language acquisition at the middle level all over Asian countries. The researchers developed a questionnaire that contained 40 items, 37 are close-ended and 3 are open-ended. Quantitative and descriptive statistics with SPSS software are employed to investigate the effect of all demographic factors on the language learning process of children. The results indicate the pertinent findings against each major construct/theme such as age, gender, parents' (income, status, education, background, and occupation), social and economic context, rural and urban society, and cultural influence. It also shows that each factor has a deep influence on language acquisition among middle-level students, and Asian countries are affected a lot. This study investigates the short- and long-term effects of demographic variables on the language acquisition of South Asian children.
Topic:
Demographics, Education, Children, Language, and Students
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

27. Odisea Demográfica. Tendencias demográficas en Argentina: insumos clave para el diseño del bienestar social

Author:
Rafael Rofman, Carola Della Paolera, Juan Camisassa, and Emanuel López Méndez
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for the Implementation of Public Policies for Equity and Growth (CIPPEC)
Abstract:
En los últimos 30 años, aún en períodos de crecimiento económico, Argentina no ha logrado reducir la incidencia de la pobreza por debajo del 25%. En otras palabras, durante las últimas tres décadas, siempre hubo al menos un cuarto de la población que vivió en la pobreza. La pobreza implica vulneraciones en múltiples dimensiones (ingresos, educación, vivienda, etc.) y una política efectiva enfocada en este desafío demanda la adopción de medidas en diversos campos, como la macroeconomía, los mercados de trabajo, la educación, el cuidado y otras políticas sociales. Habitualmente, en Argentina, estos temas son debatidos con un foco marcado en encontrar soluciones de corto plazo a los problemas, lo que dificulta cristalizar mejoras significativas y sostenibles. A esto se suma el hecho de que es habitual que una dimensión tan relevante como las anteriores sea ignorada: la dinámica demográfica. La evolución de la población, en tamaño y estructura etaria, es un factor determinante en las tendencias de mediano y largo plazo, tanto en lo que refiere a las posibilidades de desarrollo económico como a las condiciones de bienestar social, la equidad y la incidencia de pobreza. Este documento analiza los recientes cambios demográficos en Argentina para enfatizar el rol que tiene la demografía en las perspectivas económicas y sociales del país, respondiendo a cuatro preguntas: ¿de dónde venimos?, ¿por qué cambió la tendencia en la fecundidad en el último quinquenio y qué significa esto para la reducción de la pobreza?, ¿en dónde estamos hoy? y ¿hacia dónde vamos?
Topic:
Demographics, Development, Poverty, Society, Well-Being, and Protection
Political Geography:
Argentina and South America

28. Savings Glut, Secular Stagnation, Demographic Reversal, and Inequality: Beyond Conventional Explanations of Lower Interest Rates

Author:
Matias Vernengo
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Political Economy Research Institute (PERI), University of Massachusetts Amherst
Abstract:
Interest rates have declined over the last 40 years, a period of increasing inequality. The steady decline in interest rates has been interpreted by and large as resulting from a decline of the natural rate of interest. This paper surveys the main explanations associated with the notion of a decline in the natural rate of interest, including the savings glut and the secular stagnation hypothesis. It analyzes the views according to which demographic forces were behind the decline, and might perhaps be associated to a future rise of the same natural rate. It also discusses the view according to which the role of inequality has been also to affect the natural rate of interest. Finally, views that discuss the role of monetary and financial factors, including the so-called global financial cycle literature, are discussed. It is argued that the conventional view suffers from logical and empirical problems that are ultimately insurmountable. A brief critique of the notion of a natural rate of interest, and alternative monetary theory of the decline of interest rates, as determined exogenously by the monetary authority of the hegemonic country, the United States, is proposed.
Topic:
Demographics, Inequality, Finance, and Interest Rates
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

29. "If only ageing Europe had taken the easy option of more immigration"

Author:
Giles Merritt
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Robert Schuman Foundation (RSF)
Abstract:
It seems extraordinary three-quarters of a century after the Treaty of Rome was signed, and almost 30 years since the European Union's 'Big Bang' enlargement, that a major common problem should so consistently fail to find a common solution. Yet that is the fate of immigration policies in Europe. Extraordinary may not be the right word; 'Significant' might be more appropriate because the issues surrounding immigration into Europe are not just politically sensitive in national terms but also point to fault lines that threaten the EU's future integrity
Topic:
Demographics, Migration, Immigration, European Union, and Aging
Political Geography:
Europe

30. The Impact of Demographic Factors in Consumer Purchasing Preferences in Developing Countries: Empirical Evidence From Kosovo

Author:
Faruk Ahmeti
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Liberty and International Affairs
Institution:
Institute for Research and European Studies (IRES)
Abstract:
This paper analyses the role and the level of impact that different demographic factors have on buying preferences during the selection process between local and imported goods in developing and emerging economies, with a specific focus on the Kosovo region. A total of 630 questionnaires were distributed, from which 536 valid responses and an empirical study is applied to test the hypothesis. A probability sample (randomly selected), which was stratified by seven regions throughout the country was applied, by covering all levels of the society, cultural background, different locations (urban and rural), different levels of education, and income. Some of the respondents have shown a preference for imported goods and were willing to pay a price premium for it based on the quality offered by top producers (around 41.79%). Whereas, 58.21% of respondents prefer local products. It is proven that there is a correlation between demographic factors and buying preferences process when deciding between local and imported products. Whereas, price is considered as the main factor in the buying process in developing countries, due to the low income, whereas the level of imported products depends on the country’s ability to fulfill the local needs with local products.
Topic:
Demographics, Economics, Local, and Consumerism
Political Geography:
Europe and Serbia