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811. Summer Heats Up in Lebanon

Author:
David Schenker
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Six weeks after the pro-West March 14 coalition defeated the Hizballah-led alliance in Lebanon's parliamentary elections, no new government has been formed in Beirut. Although March 14 leader Saad Hariri was given a mandate back in early June to become prime minister and form a cabinet, he has still not completed the sensitive and contentious negotiations with the opposition. Hariri's difficulties in allocating seats among his coalition allies and political adversaries were anticipated, and to a certain extent are routine for Lebanon. But the calm that followed the free and fair elections is eroding, as Hizballah and its allies in Damascus press for more political concessions from Hariri. These developments, coupled with the apparent failure of Saudi-Syrian reconciliation efforts, are elevating tensions, threatening a banner tourism season, and raising the possibility of a return to violence in Beirut.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

812. Iraqi Kurds Go to the Polls: Is Change Possible?

Author:
J. Scott Carpenter and Ahmed Ali
Publication Date:
07-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 25, Iraqi Kurds go to the polls to vote in a joint parliamentary and presidential election. Although a heated competition in January produced massive change at the provincial level throughout the rest of Iraq, the electoral system produced by the incumbent Iraqi Kurdistan parliament prevents such sweeping changes in the north. Both the current coalition governing the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) and the current KRG president, Masoud Barzani, will most likely be reelected. Despite the lack of change, the postelection period will create an opportunity for Baghdad, Washington, and the KRG to resolve outstanding issues that cause increased tension between Arabs and Kurds. Resolution can occur only if all parties take advantage of new political openings, however narrow.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia

813. Justice Interrupted: Historical Perspectives on Promoting Democracy in the Middle East

Author:
Elizabeth F. Thompson
Publication Date:
06-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Foreign affairs experts routinely use historical analogy to develop and justify policy. However, as professional historians have long noted, attractive analogies often lead to bad policies. Officials regularly choose analogies that neglect or distort the historical case they aim to illuminate. Nonetheless, history can be used effectively in international relations. To do so, practitioners must first recognize the difference between historical analogy and precedent. Historical precedent, drawn from the past of the region in question, is a safer guide to policy than historical analogy, which is based on comparisons to events in other regions. Because historical precedent is a self-limiting form of analogy restricted to a certain place, people, and time, it provides a better indication of how a certain society understands and responds to a given situation. The recent U.S. intervention in Iraq highlights the misuses of history: American leaders employed analogies to World War II to justify the invasion and to predict success in establishing a democratic regime after. These analogies proved to be a poor guide to nation building in the short term. In the long term, they have deeply aggravated U.S. relations with Iraqis and the rest of the Arab world. A more effective use of history would have been to refer to the precedent of World War I, a crucial moment when American policy could have supported indigenous Arab constitutional democracy—but, fatefully, did not. For the new administration, the Arabs' experience of “justice interrupted” after World War I can still be a useful touchstone for promoting democracy in the region. This precedent alerts us that foreign intervention can spark a deep-seated and negative political reaction in the postcolonial Arab world and that reform in Arab politics must begin with respect for national sovereignty. It also reminds us that constitutionalism and the desire to participate in the community of international law are enduring values in Arab politics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy and Democratization
Political Geography:
Middle East and Arabia

814. The Limits of Institutional Engineering: Lessons from Iraq

Author:
David Waldner
Publication Date:
05-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Post-conflict, post-totalitarian societies like Iraq possess many economic, political, social, and cultural characteristics that are not conducive to democratic governance. A central pillar of democracy promotion is that judicious institutional engineering—crafting new institutions and other elements outlining the democratic rules of the game—can overcome these obstacles and engender stable democracies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Civil Society, Democratization, Government, Regime Change, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

815. The Kurds in Syria: Fueling Separatist Movements in the Region?

Author:
Radwan Ziadeh
Publication Date:
04-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United States Institute of Peace
Abstract:
Kurds in Syria have been denied basic social, cultural, and political rights, in many cases stemming from the Syrian state's refusal to grant citizenship.
Topic:
Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Europe and Arabia

816. Vulnerability and Resilience of the Middle Class in Latin America

Author:
Alberto Minujin and Guillermina Comas
Publication Date:
02-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The New School Graduate Program in International Affairs
Abstract:
This paper analyzes the vulnerability of the middle class in Latin America in face of the neo-liberal policies implemented in the region during recent decades and discusses possible policies and programs that promote the building and strengthening of democratic processes throughout the region. Changes in the Latin American middle class are examined. An important part of the middle class can be active participants in the process of building democracy and developing inclusive and equitable societies. This will require the implementation of policies and programs that promote the participation of the middle class in the public sphere.
Topic:
Democratization, Development, and Social Stratification
Political Geography:
Latin America

817. Guinea: Military Rule Must End

Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The killing of at least 160 participants in a peaceful demonstration, the rape of many women protestors, and the arrest of political leaders by security forces in Conakry on 28 September 2009 showed starkly the dangers that continued military rule poses to Guinea's stability and to a region where three fragile countries are only just recovering from civil wars. The military junta, the National Council for Democracy and Development (Conseil national pour la démocratie et le développement, CNDD), is denying its evident responsibility and playing for time by offering what it calls a “national union government” to opposition parties. But with the mood on the streets hardening against the junta, worse trouble is likely unless combined domestic and international pressure is applied to force the soldiers from power.
Topic:
Political Violence, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:
Africa and Guinea

818. A Choice for Peace? The Story of Forty-One Days of Mediation in Kenya

Author:
Elisabeth Lindenmayer and Josie Lianna Kaye
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Peace Institute (IPI)
Abstract:
The postelection violence that erupted in Kenya in December 2007 resulted in the deaths of over one thousand people and left three hundred thousand people displaced. While catastrophic, the scale of the social and economic destruction, not to mention the loss of life, could have been much greater were it not for the peace mediation mandated by the African Union in January 2008. The Panel of Eminent African Personalities, chaired by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, led the forty-one-day peace process, culminating in the Agreement on the Principles of Partnership of the Coalition Government, which was signed by President Mwai Kibaki and the Honorable Raila Odinga on February 28th, putting an end to the crisis which engulfed the nation and took the world by surprise.
Topic:
Political Violence and Democratization
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

819. "Fixing Broken Windows": Security Sector Reform in Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen

Author:
Yezid Sayigh
Publication Date:
10-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
As they emerge from conflict, states can rarely commence the arduous task of reconstruction and consolidate their governments until they undertake extensive restructuring of their security forces. Palestine, Lebanon, and Yemen are all fractured, quasi-democratic states with divided societies, and deep disagreement over what constitutes the national interest. Successful reform in each will require security institutions that answer to democratically-elected civilian leaders, but the U.S. and European approach has thus far focused largely on providing military training and equipment, targeted toward counterterrorist capabilities.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Yemen, Arabia, and Lebanon

820. Warlords As Bureaucrats: The Afghan Experience

Author:
Dipali Mukhopadhyay
Publication Date:
09-2009
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Despite his commitment to develop a democratic, modern state, President Hamid Karzai placed many former warlords in positions of power, particularly in the provinces. Many observers, Afghan and foreign alike, have decried the inclusion of warlords in the new governmental structures as the chief corrosive agent undermining efforts to reconstruct the state. Indeed, warlord governors have not been ideal government officials. They have employed informal power and rules, as well as their personal networks, to preserve control over their respective provinces. Informalized politics of this kind is the antithesis of a technocratic, rule-based approach to governance and entails considerable costs, from inefficiency to corruption and human rights abuses.
Topic:
Security, Democratization, Government, Sovereignty, War, and Counterinsurgency
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia