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672. No real winner? Britain's closest election in a generation and the implications for Europe
- Author:
- Toby Archer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA)
- Abstract:
- The British general election of 2010 has, despite all expectations, become a genuinely exciting and possibly ground-breaking event. If, as more and more opinion polls indicate, the outcome on May 7 is a hung parliament, with no one party having an overall majority, the result will reverberate through the British political system and onwards through European politics more generally. Until very recently, Britain's European partners were, like the British punditocracy, expecting a Conservative win and a new round of British Euroscepticism as a result. Now, the sudden rise of the Liberal Democrats, by far the most pro-EU of the three big British parties, is calling all that into question. This briefing looks at why a hung parliament is now possible and after considering the manifesto policies on European and foreign affairs of the three main parties, considers what it might mean for Britain's relations with the EU and wider world.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Britain and Europe
673. Covering Corruption: The Difficulties of Trying to Make a Difference
- Author:
- Rosemary Armao
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- It is often taken for granted that a free press shining a light on wrongdoing is the way to ntrol corruption. The World Bank, with an eye to the economic potential of honest government, promotes this, as do United Nations agencies and the U.S. and European governments, which spend millions of dollars to develop media with corruption-fighting power. And brave journalists have endured threats and attacks and have even died reporting about corruption. In June and July of 2010 alone, three Philippino and a Greek journalist-working in different media and on different topics, but all exposing corruption-were gunned down. Covering corruption is more dangerous than covering war.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democratization, Development, Mass Media, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- United States and Europe
674. The Arab State: Assisting or Obstructing Development?
- Author:
- Paul Salem
- Publication Date:
- 07-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Good governance is key to improving peoples' lives; but the Arab world falls short on many governance indicators. Most Arab states remain highly authoritarian, although there is a growing dynamism in civil society and among opposition parties, both secular and Islamist. Problems in governance have impeded development in the Arab world and limited the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Arab Countries
675. Bases, Bullets, and Ballots: The Effect of U.S. Military Aid on Political Conflict in Colombia
- Author:
- Oeindrila Dube and Suresh Naidu
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Global Development (CGD)
- Abstract:
- Does foreign military assistance strengthen or further weaken fragile states facing internal conflict? We address this question by estimating how U.S. military aid affects violence and electoral participation in Colombia. We exploit the allocation of U.S. military aid to Colombian military bases, and compare how aid affects municipalities with and without bases. Using detailed political violence data, we find that U.S. military aid leads to differential increases in attacks by paramilitaries (who collude with the military), but has no effect on guerilla attacks. Aid increases also result in more paramilitary (but not guerrilla) homicides during election years. Moreover, when military aid rises, voter turnout falls more in base municipalities, especially those that are politically contested.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Democratization, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- United States, Colombia, and Latin America
676. Iraqi Voices Entering 2010
- Author:
- Rusty Barber and William B. Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Successful attacks on key government buildings underscore worries about whether Iraqis can manage their own security. They mask, however, something new in Iraqi society: an emerging vox populi that found potent expression in provincial elections last January, despite the odds. As national elections approach in March, political leaders are realizing that they ignore this growing voice at their peril. Aware that American attention is shifting towards other problems at home and abroad, Iraqis are nervously contemplating how much U.S. support they can expect going forward in their fragile experiment in democratic governance. The U.S. role in helping Iraqis prepare for national elections has been crucial and largely welcome—it should continue through the transition to a new government. Successful complete withdrawal by 2012 depends on an Iraqi government that is responsive to its people’s basic needs and capable of evolving peacefully via fair elections. Longer term, there are several critical areas on which a distracted and resource stretched America should focus. These include intensifying efforts to help Arabs and Kurds resolve disputes and forestall the need for an extended U.S. military presence in northern Iraq. Helping Iraq protect its borders – a vulnerability highlighted by Iran’s recent incursion—and nudging the Gulf Arab states to more actively engage Iraq as an emerging partner in regional security and economic structures will also be key to stability inside and beyond Iraq’s borders. If water is the “new oil” in terms of its resource value and potential to create conflict, that future is now playing out in Iraq. Shortages and poor quality are already causing serious health and economic problems, displacement and raising tensions with Iraq’s neighbors. The U.S. can help here on both the diplomatic and technical sides of the issue.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Development
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
677. The Libertarian Vote in the Age of Obama
- Author:
- David Kirby and David Boaz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Cato Institute
- Abstract:
- Libertarian—or fiscally conservative, socially liberal—voters are often torn between their aversions to the Republicans' social conservatism and the Democrats' fiscal irresponsibility. Yet libertarians rarely factor into pundits' and pollsters' analyses.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States
678. Strategic Competition With Iran: The Military Dimension
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman, Vivek Kocharlakota, and Adam Seitz
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
- Abstract:
- US competition with Iran has become the equivalent of a game of three-dimensional chess, in which other states are outside players that can constantly intervene, and one where each side can modify at least some of the rules with each move. It is a game that has been going on for some three decades. It is clearly unlikely to be ended by better dialog and mutual understanding, and that Iran's version of “democracy” is unlikely to change the way it is played in the foreseeable future. This does not make dialogue and negotiation pointless. Dialogue and negotiation do reduce the risk of escalation and misunderstanding. They offer a peaceful means of placing limits on Iran's behavior, of helping to convince Iran's regime that such limits are really in its interest, and establishing “rules of the game” which limit the risks involved to both sides.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Nuclear Weapons, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iran
679. A Breakthrough in Justice? Accountability for Post-Election Violence in Kenya
- Author:
- Chandra Lekha Sriram and Stephen Brown
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Centre on Human Rights in Conflict
- Abstract:
- The International Criminal Court (ICC) provides the most promising, and potentially only, venue for accountability for those most responsible for serious post-election violence in Kenya.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Democratization, and International Law
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
680. Evaluating the Evaluators: Media Freedom Indexes and What They Measure
- Author:
- John Burgess
- Publication Date:
- 08-2010
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- National Endowment for Democracy
- Abstract:
- All over the world, studies that rank countries by media freedom figure prominently in civil liberties debates, aid programming, foreign policy decisions, and academic research. The three most widely cited indexes—compiled by Freedom House, the International Research Exchanges Board (IREX), and Reporters Without Borders (RSF in its French initials)—often become media events in their own right on release day, written about by local newspapers and Web sites and analyzed on television and radio. In view of the breadth and depth of their impact, academics have been studying the quality of the social science that underlies these and other studies. Some academics claim deficiencies in such issues as methodology, cultural neutrality, and focus on “old media.” Yet many go on to conclude that whatever the shortcomings, the studies produce basically consistent findings over time and are credible, useful tools for tracking the evolution of media freedom in the countries of the world. They serve to highlight the crucial role of a free press in democracy and good governance.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Democratization, International Affairs, and Mass Media
- Political Geography:
- France